Hedging with small uncertainty aversion

We study the pricing and hedging of derivative securities with uncertainty about the volatility of the underlying asset. Rather than taking all models from a prespecified class equally seriously, we penalise less plausible ones based on their “distance” to a reference local volatility model. In the limit for small uncertainty aversion, this leads to explicit formulas for prices and hedging strategies in terms of the security’s cash gamma.     

Model uncertainty,recalibration, and the emergence of delta–vega hedging

We study option pricing and hedging with uncertainty about a Black–Scholes reference model which is dynamically recalibrated to the market price of a liquidly traded vanilla option. For dynamic trading in the underlying asset and this vanilla option, delta–vega hedging is asymptotically optimal in the limit for small uncertainty aversion. The corresponding indifference price corrections are determined by the disparity between the vegas, gammas, vannas and volgas of the non-traded and the liquidly traded options.     

The dynamics of premium reserves of life annuities under the regime of Solvency II

The article considers the solvency requirements for a whole portfolio of annuities under the regime of Solvency II. More precisely, the following question is investigated: Which demand of interest on the initial capital – the Solvency II premium reserves – is needed in order to fit the balance for Solvency II capital requirements in the next year? It turns out, that even for a model portfolio of simple annuities with say guaranteed interest rate of 1,25% the demand of interest in one year is greater than 3%. So even if a life insurance company fulfill the capital requirements of Solvency II in 2016 the mentioned effect causes eventually problems in future times.     

Trust and Understanding,Two Psychological Aspects of Randomized Response

This study examines two different Randomized Response methods to see whether they evoke sufficient understanding and trust, and ensure fewer evasive answers to socially sensitive questions. Two Randomized Response methods were employed by trained interviewers to study fraud: the Forced Response method, using dice, and Kuk's method, using playing cards. Respondents were selected from the files of the social security offices of three Dutch cities. A total of 334 respondents participated voluntarily in this study of two Randomized Response methods. Most respondents were known to have committed some form of fraud, and their answer on the Randomized Response question is validated with this information. The results indicate that subjects who have a better understanding of the Forced Response technique give more socially undesirable answers. The interviewer has a most important role establishing trust and understanding. Respondents who are less able to understand the instructions, e.g., have limited language abilities, develop less trust in the method.     

Multidimensionales Verfahren zur Bestimmung des Regelleistungsbedarfes unter Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten

One of the most crucial constraints in operation of electrical power supply systems is the permanent balance between generation and load. Reserve power is held ready to be able to keep this balance also in case of the occurrence of unpredictable events like power plant outages or inevitable deviations of power injections from their predicted values. At this, the allocation of operating reserves is in the field of conflict between level of reliability and cost effectiveness. The amount of reserve generation capacity required in a control area heavily depends on prediction quality which constitutes the need for high quality predictions. This article is about the influence of prediction quality on the amount of reserve generation capacity required in a control area. The algorithms for the assessment of required reserve generation capacity known from literature use the variation calculus technique to account for the aforementioned unpredictable events and prediction errors. In this article, an extension to a convolution-based method is presented in which the uncertainties of the predictions are expressed using intervals. Each parameter is represented by an independent dimension, assuming statistical independence among them. This allows the distinct analysis of each parameter’s influence on the amount of required reserve generation capacity. In addition, two methods for the visualization of the multi-dimensional results are presented, allowing a comprehensive analysis of the parameters’ influences. Standard distribution functions are used to represent the parameters for the simulation and the results are shown as probability density functions of possible imbalances. Based on forecasts of the development of conventional power plants and regenerative generation in the years 2020, 2030 and 2040, the required control power of the future German transmission system is calculated. Influences and dependencies are identified with the extended convolution-based method.     

Willingness to Pay for Voluntary Climate Action and Its Determinants: Field-Experimental Evidence

The determinants of individual, voluntary climate action (VCA) in combating climate change and its potential scale are frequently debated in public but largely underresearched. We provide estimates of the willingness to individually reduce EU greenhouse gas emissions by one ton, using the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. Estimates are derived from an online field experiment with a large, highly heterogenous, and Internet-representative sample of voting-aged Germans. Jointly estimating willingness to pay (WTP), non-indifference to VCA, and prior knowledge, we uncover important determinants of preferences for VCA, such as education, the information structure among the population, and exogenous environmental conditions.     

Taxation of Foreign Profits with Heterogeneous Multinational Firms

This paper analyses optimal taxation of foreign profits using a model with heterogeneous multinational firms that serve a foreign market through exports or foreign direct investment (FDI). If a firm switches from exporting to FDI, domestic activity and tax payments may decrease, stay constant or even rise because of intra‐firm trade. It turns out that, in contrast to recent claims, in all three cases, the optimal tax system implies full taxation after deduction of foreign tax payments. If the country accounts for the effects of its policy on the foreign price level, the case for taxing foreign income becomes even stronger. However, the globally optimal tax system may require exemption of foreign income from tax.     

Combining Risk and Responsibility Perspectives: First Steps

Business activity can be analyzed through a ‘risk awareness’ perspective and a ‘responsibility awareness’ perspective. However, risk and responsibility are actually interdependent. Risk-taking triggers responsibility issues and taking responsibility means risking being asked critical questions. This article suggests some first steps for combining these two perspectives conceptually. After several introductory illustrations showing how risk and responsibility issues are intertwined, the article looks separately each at risk and at responsibility. Then the argument that such perspectives could be usefully combined is elaborated further from a theoretical angle and from a practical angle, by looking at various ethical issues and by presenting paradigmatic examples of balancing or sharing risk and responsibility related to leadership, to ERM and to insurance.