Errors and questionable judgments in analysts’ DCF models

We investigate the number of and reasons for errors and questionable judgments that sell-side equity analysts make in constructing and executing discounted cash flow (DCF) equity valuation models. For a sample of 120 DCF models detailed in reports issued by U.S. brokers in 2012 and 2013, we estimate that analysts make a median of three theory-related and/or execution errors and four questionable economic judgments per DCF. Recalculating analysts’ DCFs after correcting for major errors changes analysts’ mean valuations and target prices by between ?2 and 14 % per error. Based on face-to-face interviews with analysts and those who oversee them, we conclude that analysts’ DCF modeling behavior is semi-sophisticated in the sense that analysts genuinely make mistakes regarding certain aspects of correctly valuing equity but also respond rationally to the incentives they face, particularly the reality that they are not directly compensated for being textbook DCF correct.     

The economic burden of tuberous sclerosis complex in UK patients with renal manifestations: a retrospective cohort study in the clinical practice research datalink (CPRD)

Background: Tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) is a multi-system genetic disorder in which renal manifestations occur in ～50% of children and 80% of adults. Since these often present alongside other manifestations, renal TSC is likely to incur significant costs. This study aims to quantify healthcare resource use (HCRU) and costs for renal TSC patients in the UK.

Methods: TSC patients in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) linked to Hospital Episodes Statistics were identified from January 1987–June 2013. Clinical data were extracted over the entire history and costs were reported over the most recent 3-year period. HCRU was compared with a matched comparator cohort. Incremental costs were reported and the key cost drivers by primary manifestation category were identified by regression modeling.

Results: A total of 79 renal TSC patients were identified with manifestations including chronic kidney disease stage 3–5 (with prevalence increasing with age) and renal angiomyolipoma. Renal TSC patients consistently reported greater HCRU than the comparator. Inpatient hospitalizations were more frequent for renal TSC patients (3.2 vs 1.6), but length of stay was comparable; however, 70.9% of renal TSC patients recorded no kidney-related procedures ever and averaged <1 test per year in the 3-year period. Average costs for renal TSC patients were nearly 3-fold greater than the comparator (£15,162 vs £5672). Costs increased with additional manifestation categories (£3600: only renal; £27,531: renal with ≥4 additional manifestation categories [25% of patients]). Additional nervous system and dermatology/psychiatric manifestations significantly (p?Conclusions: Renal TSC patients have greater HCRU than the general CPRD population, likely to result from progression of renal disease and additional manifestations; however, surveillance for disease progression appears to be deficient. Inadequate monitoring may contribute to a lack of co-ordinated care and increased healthcare-associated costs. Efforts should be made to follow the TSC guidelines to effectively monitor and treat patients.     

Does Brain Drain Lead to Institutional Gain?

A country's endowment of human capital affects its institutions through various channels. This raises the possibility that skilled emigration can leave its mark on a country's institutional development. We explore the impact of emigrant human capital on home country's institutional quality. Using geographical and genetic distance‐based instrumental variables for emigration and a dynamic panel estimation method, we find that human capital emigration helps the home country's political institutions, but hurts economic institutions. The conventional ‘brain drain’ argument, therefore, needs to incorporate the institutional changes due to skilled labour emigration.     

The political economy of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: a ‘21st Century’ trade agreement?

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was the first of the ‘Mega-FTAs’ to be signed. Had it been ratified, it would have created the world’s largest preferential trade area. The negotiators of the TPP aspired to create ‘a next-generation transformative agreement’ that would address a new trade agenda focused on regulatory coherence and business facilitation. The expectation was that this agenda would generate a 21st Century trade politics that would be less contentious, at least among business actors, than traditional negotiations on market access. Studies of another Mega-FTA under negotiation, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) that has a similar agenda found unified business support for the agreement domestically and the emergence of transnational business coalitions in support of the agreement. Recent theorising on trade politics suggests, however, that global value chains (GVCs) that involve vertical intra-industry trade introduce ‘traditional’ distributional issues that will divide business interests domestically – and, in the case of GVCs organised on different geographical bases, internationally as well. This cleavage was evident in the TPP negotiations, unlike those for TTIP, as were other divisions among business – both domestically and across countries – over the sharing of existing rents and of new rents generated by regulatory harmonisation.     

The Media's Role in Influencing Perceptions of Housing Values and the Resulting Impact on the Macroeconomy

The housing market is a major component of the economy and persistent negative media reports can adversely affect perceptions and expectations of homeowners as to the value of their home. As a result, households reduce their expenditures and increase their savings in an effort to rebuild lost wealth. In the short run the economy suffers and the recession is magnified. This paper demonstrates, through an empirical study, how negative media reports regarding the deteriorating conditions of the national housing market affects what households feel their housing is worth.