How public opinion really works

The public's thinking on issues progresses through seven predictable stages, the dean of American pollsters finds. Politicians make a big mistake just looking at raw numbers.     

EMBEDDED MATRICES FOR FINITE MARKOV CHAINS

For an arbitrary subset A of the finite state space 5 of a Markov chain the so–called embedded matrix P _A is introduced. By use of these matrices formulas expressing all kinds of probabilities can be written down almost automatically, and calculated very easily on a computer. Also derivations can be given very systematically.     

THE MANAGEMENT OF NEW OFFICE TECHNOLOGY: CHOICE, CONTROL AND SOCIAL STRUCTURE IN THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY

Amongst the growing literature on the technical and social aspects of microelectronics in work organizations, a considerable portion has direct or indirect pertinence to the question of managerial practice. That segment of the literature relating to new office technology is perhaps especially conscious of this angle — not least because this sphere of innovation has a clear bearing on the managerial role itself. Drawing both on theoretical issues extracted from this literature, and on empirical studies in three insurance companies, it is argued that while control is of crucial long-term importance in shaping the general direction of organizational change using new technology, there are sound sociological reasons why the path which is beaten out in that direction remains a far from straight one. Moreover, while differences in organizational practice between these organizations are found to exist, these appear to be associated only indirectly with the diverse levels of technological sophistication.     

INTRODUCING MARKET FORCES INTO MANAGERIAL DECISION-MAKING IN CHINESE INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES

This paper focuses on the fundamental changes in the management of state enterprises that are taking place in China. Specifically, we discuss the expansion of enterprise autonomy and changes in the managerial decision-making structure. The genesis of the reform programme is traced back to inefficiencies caused by the over-centralized state planning system which reduced enterprise management to little more than an administrative function dominated by the Party secretary. As a consequence, managerial and technical cadres became demoralized and the growth of staff functions such as accounting, marketing and personnel management was stunted. From a series of experiments launched in 1978 has grown the realization that tinkering around with the state planning apparatus is insufficient to stimulate entrepreneurship and vigorous industrial expansion. Accordingly, reform has been launched on a broad front both within the state apparatus, in an endeavour to roll back external constraints on enterprise, and within the enterprise itself, by seeking to provide powerful incentives both to managerial cadres and workers through a system stressing individual responsibility and rewards commensurate with results. A number of severe constraints on the reform programme are analysed, in particular, the changing balance of power within the enterprise between the factory director, the Party secretary, the workers’congress and the trade union. Contradictions exist within the new structure of decision-making but, given a period of political stability and sustained economic growth, there should be sufficient surplus to mollify discontent and stifle those who refuse to give up their belief in the virtues of having‘politics in command’of the industrial enterprise.     

STRATEGIC INVESTMENT DECISION-MAKING: COMPLEXITIES, POLITICS AND PROCESSES*

This article is a preliminary report on an investigation into the processes of investment decision-making. Three case studies from three firms are presented which show disparities in a number of aspects of process, for example, the length of time taken to arrive at a decision, the number and intensity of disagreements and uncertainties encountered. Data were collected for these cases through semi-structured interviewing from multiple informants in the three organizations, thereby permitting the use of analysis of variance techniques of the different perspectives given by informants. Perceptions of the effectiveness of the decisions were also gathered. One finding from the study is that the decisions with the lowest perceived effectiveness (in firm HE) also lost support from those involved in making the decision during the process, although the decision was eventually implemented. This decision also had the least agreement amongst informants as to the main sources of disagreements. Informants of all three decisions saw effect upon product quality and productivity, fit with business strategy and competitive position of the company as the most important factors to take into account in evaluating the decisions. In firm CG, however, there were disagreements as to how the investment should be evaluated. In the conclusions to the article a disucssion is given as to the nature of evaluation procedures in relation to the developing theory of information systems.     

HOW IDEOLOGIES SUPPLANT FORMAL STRUCTURES AND SHAPE RESPONSES TO ENVIRONMENTS

Observations of nineteen hospitals show how organizational ideologies are manifested and sustained by beliefs, stories, languages, and ceremonial acts. The data indicate that harmonious ideologies accompany simple structures, but that discordant ones accompany elaborate structures. Through their effects on people and structures, ideologies guide organizations’responses to external threats.     

Distribution-free tests for comparing several treatments with a control

Abstract  In this paper we propose distribution-free treatments versus control tests for the one- and two-way classifications. The null distribution properties are shown to be equivalent to those of well-known statistics for which critical values have been extensively tabled. Asymptotic relative efficiencies with respect to corresponding normal theory competitors are derived and optimal designs for the allocation of experimental units to the treatments and control are obtained.     

Measurement of the Socioeconomic Impact of Lake Restoration: An Assessment Model Employing a Benefit/Cost Cross-Impact Probabilistic Approach

A bstract . A number of lake restoration demonstraton projects have been launched by the Environmental Protection Agency as a result of Public Law 92-500. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these public investment projects requires the development of an assessment model. The proposed Benefit/Cost Cross-Impact Probabilistic Approach (BCCIPA) is one attempt at assessing the interdependent socioeconomic and environmental impacts of the lake restoration project over time, both quantitatively and qualitatively, so that various changes brought about by the project can be investigated and evaluated in two comparative stages for three points in time—before, during and after project implementation.