Industrial reform in Jamaica in the 1980s: an export promotion strategy

Jamaica has shifted gradually from an import substitution strategy of industrialization in the 1960s and early 1970s to a much more export-orientated approach. Policy in the 1980s has been based around changes to the real exchange rate, foreign trade liberalization, fiscal incentives to new investment, particularly foreign investment, and selective support through various subsidies. Performance has been mixed, however, with only the garment sub-sector of manufacturing achieving significant export growth. Furthermore, the heavy involvement of transnational firms in the new industrial investment raises questions about the long-run viability of the form of export promotion currently being pursued     

Exact inference in the inequality constrained normal linear regression model

Inference in the inequality constrained normal linear regression model is approached as a problem in Bayesian inference, using a prior that is the product of a conventional uninformative distribution and an indicator function representing the inequality constraints. The posterior distribution is calculated using Monte Carlo numerical integration, which leads directly to the evaluation of expected values of functions of interest. This approach is compared with others that have been proposed. Three empirical examples illustrate the utility of the proposed methods using an inexpensive 32-bit microcomputer.     

Financial liberalization and banking crises in emerging economies

Financial liberalization often leads to financial crises. This link has usually been attributed to poorly designed banking systems, an explanation that is largely static. In this paper we develop a dynamic explanation, by modelling the evolution of a newly-liberalized bank's opportunities and incentives to take on risk over time. The model reveals that even if a banking system is well-designed, in the sense of having good long-run properties, many countries will enjoy an initial period of rapid, low-risk growth and then enter a period with an elevated risk of banking crisis. This transition emerges because of the way in which the degree of foreign competition, the marginal product of capital, and the bank's own net worth simultaneously evolve.     

Informed Traders and Price Variations in the Betting Market for Professional Basketball Games

This paper examines betting line changes from the opening to the closing of the point spread betting market on National Basketball Association games for evidence of informed trader betting. We show that within-betting period line changes significantly improve the accuracy of betting lines as forecasts of game outcomes. We examine individual line change magnitudes and show that these are directly and proportionately related to biases in opening lines. Further, line changes are of sufficient magnitude to remove these biases by the close of betting. We interpret these results as evidence that informed traders are influential in this market.     

A dyadic study of interpersonal information search

Although interpersonal word-of-mouth communication, by definition, takes place between two people, rarely has the phenomenon of word of mouth been studied using both members of the dyad. Building on the literature, this article offers a model of active interpersonal information search that is tested by using a method in which information seeker and source perceptions were obtained. Source characteristics were important determinants of interpersonal influence, but seeker characteristics also played an important role. Interestingly, it proved useful to distinguish between demographic and attitudinal homophily of seeker and source as the former was inversely and the latter directly related to interpersonal influence. Mary C. Gilly is an associate professor in the Graduate School of Management and associate dean of Graduate Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Her Ph.D. is in marketing from the University of Houston. Her research interests include the unintended effects of marketing actions, such as the effects of advertising on employees. She also has interests in services marketing, such as customer service, including consumer complaint handling, and cross-cultural service encounters. Her work has been published in theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Consumer Research, theJournal of Business Research, and other academic journals. John L. Graham is a professor in the Graduate School of Management at the University of California, Irvine. His Ph.D. is in marketing from the University of California, Berkeley. His primary research interests regard international marketing, international business negotiations, and structural equations modeling. His work has been published in theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Consumer Research, Marketing Science, theJournal of International Business Studies, Management Science, and other academic journals. Mary Finley Wolfinbarger is an associate professor at California State University, Long Beach and is doing research on the topics of internal marketing and gift giving. She teaches Marketing Principles and Marketing Research. She received her Ph.D. in marketing from the University of California, Irvine. Her work has appeared in theJournal of Marketing and other academic journals. Laura J. Yale came to Fort Lewis College in 1991. She holds degrees in Hotel, Restaurant, and Travel Administration from the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and received her Ph.D. from the University of California, Irvine. She teaches a variety of courses in Marketing and Travel and Tourism Administration, including Marketing Research, International Marketing and Services. Her industry experience and most of her research interest are in the services sector, particularly the tourism industry. She is on sabbatical leave this academic year, writing an introductory textbook on the tourism industry. She will return to teaching in September 1998.