The relationship between aggregate managed fund flows and share market returns in Australia

This paper presents the relation between aggregate equity managed fund flows and excess share market returns in Australia and evaluates the issue of causality therein. Using a large data set of 3613 managed funds for the period January 1990 to September 2009, the paper addresses two important questions yet to be addressed within the Australian market: First, for research question one; it aims to determine whether a positive feedback process exists between aggregate equity managed fund flows and excess share market returns. Second, for research question two; it examines the relation between unexpected aggregate equity managed fund flows and excess share market returns. The empirical findings contribute to the literature by confirming, in Australia, aggregate equity managed fund flows do not Granger-cause excess share market returns; however, compelling evidence reveals that share market returns do in fact Granger-cause managed fund flows. These findings support those of Edwards and Zhang (1998), who find similar evidence for the United States over the sample period 1961–1996. In addition, aggregate equity managed fund flows are found to be positively related to excess share market returns, indicating herding behavior.     

Profitability of pairs trading strategy in an illiquid market with multiple share classes

We investigate the practical issues of implementing the self-financing pairs portfolio trading strategy presented by Gatev et al. (2006). We also provide new evidence on the profitability of pairs trading under different weighting structures and trade initiation conditions. Using data from the Finnish stock market over the period 1987–2008, we find pairs trading to be profitable even after allowing for a one day delay in the trade initiation after the signal. On average, the annualized return can be as high as 12.5%, though requiring trading on days a pair is traded lowers the return approximately by three percentage points. On the other hand, lowering the threshold for opening a pair is found to increase returns even after accounting for trading costs, indicating that there might be a more optimal trade initiation threshold available than that presented in earlier literature. The profits are not related to market risk. Pairs trading strategy is found to produce positive alpha during the sample period.     

Corporate governance in the 2007–2008 financial crisis: Evidence from financial institutions worldwide

This paper investigates the influence of corporate governance on financial firms' performance during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Using a unique dataset of 296 financial firms from 30 countries that were at the center of the crisis, we find that firms with more independent boards and higher institutional ownership experienced worse stock returns during the crisis period. Further exploration suggests that this is because (1) firms with higher institutional ownership took more risk prior to the crisis, which resulted in larger shareholder losses during the crisis period, and (2) firms with more independent boards raised more equity capital during the crisis, which led to a wealth transfer from existing shareholders to debtholders. Overall, our findings add to the literature by examining the corporate governance determinants of financial firms' performance during the 2007–2008 crisis.     

Accountability as aporia,testimony, and gift

This paper contributes to the understanding of accountability in its relation with responsibility. It applies Derrida's work on responsibility, testimony, and gift to the problematic of accountability. Accountability's entanglement in the tension between, morality and ethics, singular and general responsibilities is examined, and Derrida's analysis of the aporia of responsibility is expressed and explored in terms of an aporia of accountability: It is argued that accountability relies on responsibility but that the rendering of accountability tends to undermine responsibility. In seeking to make a positive contribution to the question of how accountability might contribute to raising levels of responsibility for the other, the wholly other, the paper critically builds on existing Levinasian perspectives on this question, and develops the suggestion, inspired by Derrida's work, that in appropriate circumstances the reconfiguring of accountability as testimony and as gift might help enhance responsibility.     

A pure martingale dual for multiple stopping

In this paper, we present a dual representation for the multiple stopping problem, hence multiple exercise options. As such, it is a natural generalization of the method in Rogers (Math. Finance 12:271–286, 2002) and Haugh and Kogan (Oper. Res. 52:258–270, 2004) for the standard stopping problem for American options. We term this representation a ‘pure martingale’ dual as it is solely expressed in terms of an infimum over martingales rather than an infimum over martingales and stopping times as in Meinshausen and Hambly (Math. Finance 14:557–583, 2004). For the multiple dual representation, we propose Monte Carlo simulation methods which require only one degree of nesting.     

Crossing the River by Touching Stones?: The Reform of Corporate Ownership in China

The privatization of Chinese enterprises in a low-legal-protection environment raises the question as to how minority shareholders are assured that their capital will not be expropriated. This paper sheds some light on this issue by examining the influence of controlling shareholders on the corporate performance of listed firms from 1997 to 2006. The first main finding is that firms controlled by local governments are more valuable to minority shareholders, whereas firms controlled by individuals are less valuable. The second main finding is that the post-WTO-accession relinquishment of control from local governments to private shareholders appears to have reduced corporate performance.     

Do actions speak louder than words? An empirical investigation of corporate environmental reputation

In this study, we investigate the extent to which firms’ environmental performance is reflected in perceptions of their environmental reputation and whether environmental disclosure serves to mediate the negative aspects of poorer environmental performance associated with those assessments. We also examine whether differences in environmental performance and environmental disclosure appear to be associated with membership selection to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI), a factor we also believe may be associated with perceptions of environmental reputation. Based on a cross-sectional sample of 92 US firms from environmentally sensitive industries, we find that environmental performance measured using Trucost environmental performance scores is negatively related to both reputation scores and membership in the DJSI. We argue this is due to the more extensive disclosure levels of firms that are worse performers and the finding of a significant positive relation between environmental disclosure and both the environmental reputation measures and DJSI membership. Finally, we show that the DJSI designation positively influences perceptions of corporate reputation. Overall, our results suggest that voluntary environmental disclosure appears to mediate the effect of poor environmental performance on environmental reputation. Perhaps more troubling, our results also suggest that membership in the DJSI appears to be driven more by what firms say than what they do. Thus, like voluntary disclosure, the DJSI may actually be hindering improved future corporate environmental performance.     

Characteristics and Information Value of Credit Watches

We analyze credit watch and rating actions to better understand the role of credit watches in the credit rating process. We find that watch actions are more frequently prompted by specific, publicly known events than are rating actions. The likelihood that a watch action precedes a rating action varies systematically with proxies for investor demand for credit quality information and the adverse consequences of issuing a rating change prematurely. Credit watches occur more often in response to deterioration in credit quality, and issuers make concerted efforts to address the concerns that prompted down watches. Down watches are less likely than up watches to indicate the direction of the subsequent rating change. Watch announcements are associated with abnormal stock returns, indicating that credit watch actions are significant information events. Our results suggest that credit watches are informative and facilitate the stability of ratings by allowing firms to correct deficiencies and prevent downgrades.     

Timing of Sale,Pricing, and Cost Information: Evidence from the Airline Industry*

This study examines the association between when an airline sells its passenger seats and the pricing method (marginal cost or full cost) it employs. Prior literature suggests that when firms are able to change prices during the selling period, the optimality of full cost pricing or marginal cost pricing depends on when demand information is revealed during the period between capacity commitment decisions and time of sale. Full cost‐based pricing is appropriate in determining capacity commitment and prices simultaneously, while marginal cost provides more relevant information for pricing when capacity has been committed. Using the price and cost data from a sample of four U.S. domestic airlines, we find that full cost explains price variations of first‐day sales robustly. The adjusted R² of the marginal cost pricing model is larger in the sample of sales two days prior to departure than in the sample of first‐day sales. In the analysis of the sample of sales two days prior to departure, we find that, based on the adjusted R² of the full cost pricing and marginal cost pricing models, the explanatory power of marginal cost pricing is relatively weaker than full cost pricing. Our results document the use of different cost information along the dynamic change of price and provide implications in understanding the role of cost information in setting prices.     

Complexity science and theory development for the futures field

Complexity science unifies some forty diverse features that arise from the evolution of the civil system and these underlie theory development in the futures field. The main features of an evolutionary methodology deal with emergence, macrolaws, civil or societal transitions, macrosystem design, and the absorption of extreme events. The following principles apply: (1) The civil system is an open system in which investment capital is the system growth parameter that drives it away from equilibrium, with the formation of spatial structure. (2) The historical circumstances of human settlements provide a path dependency in respect of natural resources, defence, energy, transport, or communications. (3) Emergent properties arise within a complex adaptive system from which a theory of the system can be formulated, and these are not deducible from the features of the transacting entities. (4) Futures research identifies the conditions that will lead to an irreversible civil or societal phase transition to a new stage of development. (5) Emergent behaviour in the macrostructure at regional or continental levels can be influenced through critical intervention points in the global macrosystems.