Regulatory Uncertainty and Share Price Volatility: the English and Welsh Water Industry’s Periodic Price Review

This paper models the London stock markets response to the 1994 Periodic Review of prices in the English and Welsh water industry using both GARCH and stochastic volatility models. The results indicate that a significant reduction in the volatility of share prices for eight of the ten water and sewerage companies followed the announcement of revised industry price-caps. Investor expectations adjusted rapidly, reflecting confidence in the credibility and political sustainability of the settlement.     

Experts against adverse selection: A note on the existence of equilibrium with costly appropriable information

The existence of competitive equilibrium in Laffont's (J. Econ. Theory10 (1975)) model of adverse selection with costly information is studied. The existence of an equilibrium with finite prices is demonstrated without unusual restrictions on preferences or the technology of information production. This is made possible by changing the way in which the behaviour of information producing agents is modelled, and allowing for some public information.     

Law without justice: The dilemmas of formalization and fairness in the legalistic organization

There is growing evidence of a litigation mentality rampant in organizations, which has created a legalistic mindset in many managers. Increasingly, managerial decisions are becoming dominated by a concern for what is legally defensible at the expense of broader social considerations such as justice and fairness. The papers in this special issue explore how this legalistic mindset has created new organizational and social dilemmas, and situations of law whithout justice.     

Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses

This paper provides a technical survey of recent developments in behavioural microsimulation. We discuss the criteria by which models of labour supply may be chosen for application to behavioural microsimulation, and consider how such models may be augmented to control for fixed costs, child–related work costs, preference heterogeneity and endogeneity in wages. We describe methods by which non–linear budget constraints may be accommodated in estimation, policy simulations and welfare analysis, and discuss how stochastic terms may be factored into the simulation of behavioural responses to a policy shock.     

On recalls, layoffs, variable hours, and labor adjustment costs

The paper analyzes the employment policy of a firm that can vary both hours and the level of employment. The analysis differs from previous work in the adjustment cost literature in that the firm is able to change its employment not only through hires, layoffs, and quits, but also by recalls of employees who were previously laid off. Thus, we introduce the possibility of the firm inventorying the labor input. It is shown that this labor inventory potential is necessary if the firm is to ever lay off workers. Further, it is demonstrated that linear rather than strictly convex adjustment costs are then required if the firm is to always recall employees who were previously laid off prior to hiring new workers.     

Tax competition,uniform assessment,and the benefit principle

In previous discussions it has been argued that tax competition between local governments results in a tax burden on business that is less than the cost of public services for business and in suboptimal levels of public expenditures for residents. However, this conclusion has never been substantiated by a full theoretical treatment. Here a theoretical model of tax competition is developed between metropolitan areas, with labor perfectly immobile and two local public goods, one for residents and one for business. For “plausible” parameter values, numerical solutions of the optimality conditions are computed by means of a nonlinear programming algorithm.     

Models of database marketing

Database systems are intimately associated with fundraising effectiveness, but often leave much to be desired in the way they are implemented. This paper looks at the strengths, weaknesses and origins of three main database types: island, integrated and transitional. Observations support the view that database systems are created reactively in the face of strategies for fundraising. Where marketing strategy dictates a holistic approach to donor management, then systems will ten to the integrated or ‘contacts’ model. However, where there is no co-ordinated view on donoi development and maximised lifetime value, then fragmented island-type databases will be found.     

中国城市中的三种贫困类型

我们课题组在 1 999年进行了一次覆盖六省市的住户调查。本文利用这次调查数据对中国城市贫困的性质和特点进行了考察。通过综合考虑收入标准和消费标准 ,我们把中国城镇贫困分为三种类型 ,即持久性贫困、暂时性性贫困和选择性贫困。在贫困人口中 ,有一大部分是属于选择性贫困 ,即他们的收入高于贫困线而消费低于贫困线。我们对贫困户的消费函数进行了估计 ,其结果显示以下几个因素对贫困状况产生重要的影响 :修匀收入的效应 ;人们防备外部环境不确定性的心理 ;人们为将来投资而进行储蓄的行为 ;家庭对子女教育和医疗服务的特别需要。我们还对三种贫困类型进行了比较分析 ,从中发现预测的金融资产和预测的收入 ,以及教育和医疗的特殊需要都对不同类型的贫困户的消费行为起到重要的影响作用