Job Security Provisions and Employment: Revised Estimates

This article provides estimates of the effect of statutory severance pay and notice on four labor market outcome indicators, closely following Lazear (1990) but correcting for errors in his dependent variables and covariates. Although we corroborate the directional influence of severance pay for three of the indicators, there is little to suggest that its contribution to rising unemployment is material. Also contrary to Lazear, longer notice appears to be associated with broadly favorable outcomes.     

The Mode of Acquisition in Takeovers: Taxes and Asymmetric Information

We develop a model in which the mode of acquisition conveys information concerning the value of the bidder. The model incorporates the possibility that offers containing both cash and stock can be made in a setting consistent with the U.S. tax code. We demonstrate that bidders with unfavorable private information about their equity value choose offers containing some stock to avoid the capital gains tax consequences of cash offers. The model yields a number of unique predictions about the construction of acquisition offers. We present evidence consistent with the model.     

Impacts of Declining U.S. Retail Beef Demand on Farm-Level Beef Prices and Production

A systems model was estimated to determine the effects of declining U.S. retail beef demand on farm-level beef prices and production. Retail beef demand declined by nearly 66% from 1976 to 1999. Results indicate autonomous shifts in retail demand significantly impacted farm-level demands and production. Based on equilibrium multipliers, the 1976–99 reduction in beef demand decreased real slaughter cattle prices and production by 32.1% and 11.2%, respectively. Real feeder cattle prices and production decreased by 8.0% and 22.6%, respectively. Combining the decreases in farm prices and production, slaughter and feeder cattle producers experienced a real revenue reduction of $13.3 billion (61%) due to the long-term decline in demand.     

Futures hedging using dynamic models of the variance/covariance structure

Dynamic futures‐hedging ratios are estimated across seven markets using generalized models of the variance/covariance structure. The hedging performances of the resultant dynamic strategies are then compared with static and naïve strategies, both in‐ and out‐of‐sample. Bayesian‐adjusted hedge ratios also are employed as error purgers. The empirical results indicate that the generalized dynamic models are well specified and that their use in determining optimal hedge ratios can lead to improvements in hedging performance as measured by the volatilities of the returns on the optimally hedged position. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:241–260, 2003     

Option volume and volatility response to scheduled economic news releases

In this article, we examine the impact of 21 different types of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on S&P 100 stock‐index option volume and implied volatility. We find that there is a 2‐h delay after the announcement before volume increases. However, there is an immediate increase in volatility, which slowly dissipates over several hours. Further analysis shows that most of the high volume and volatility after announcements come from the announcements that are considered bad news. That is, bad news creates high volatility and high volume, whereas good news elicits lower volume and is not associated with higher volatility. These results are not consistent with the predictions of any one model. We also find that the announcements that cause the largest reaction in the equity option market are Consumer Credit, Consumer Spending, Factory Inventories, NAPM, and Non‐Farm Payrolls. Six other announcements elicit a mild response. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:315–345, 2003     

THE EFFECT OF INVESTMENT IN INTERORGANIZATIONAL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN A RETAIL SUPPLY CHAIN

The primary purpose of this research was to investigate the effect of investment in information technology in a supply chain. The results of that investigation are presented by focusing on an empirically tested supply chain relationship model containing both behavioral and operational constructs. The four behavioral constructs represented in the model are relationship trust, relationship commitment, relationship dependence, and long‐term relationship orientation. The four operational constructs represented in the model are retailer investment in interorganizational information technology, perceived supplier investment in interorganizational information technology, logistics efficiency, and logistics effectiveness. Among other findings, the results of the investigation found that perceived supplier investment in interorganizational information technology has a significant and positive effect on logistics efficiency.     

RELATIONSHIP MAGNITUDE AND ITS ROLE IN INTERORGANIZATIONAL RELATIONSHIP STRUCTURE

Close relationships between and among supply chain members are becoming more prevalent. However, there is lack of agreement in the literature and in practice concerning the characteristics of different interorganizational relationships. The resultant confusion is an obstacle to the progression of research and could cause problems among firms in a supply chain. Based on previous research and an exploratory study conducted with company executives responsible for supply chain management activities, this article seeks to introduce the concept of relationship magnitude (i.e., the extent or degree of closeness or strength of the relationship) and differentiate it from relationship type (i.e., classes of relationships that share common traits). Implications for managers and opportunities for future research are provided.     

A Technological and Organisational Explanation for the Size Distribution of Firms

This paper combines insights from the literature on the economics of organisation with traditional models of market structure to construct a theory of equilibrium firm size heterogeneity under the assumption of a homogenous product industry. It is possible that configurations consisting entirely of small firms (run by entrepreneurs with limited attention) and with larger firms (using managerial techniques to substitute away these limits to allow increasing returns technologies to become profitable) can arise in equilibrium. However, there also exist equilibrium configurations with the co-existence of large and small firms. The efficiency properties of these respective equilibria are discussed. Finally, the implications of an expanding market size are considered.     

Conditioning as disintegration

Conditional probability distributions seem to have a bad reputation when it comes to rigorous treatment of conditioning. Technical arguments are published as manipulations of Radon–Nikodym derivatives, although we all secretly perform heuristic calculations using elementary definitions of conditional probabilities. In print, measurability and averaging properties substitute for intuitive ideas about random variables behaving like constants given particular conditioning information.
One way to engage in rigorous, guilt-free manipulation of conditional distributions is to treat them as disintegrating measures—families of probability measures concentrating on the level sets of a conditioning statistic. In this paper we present a little theory and a range of examples—from EM algorithms and the Neyman factorization, through Bayes theory and marginalization paradoxes—to suggest that disintegrations have both intuitive appeal and the rigor needed for many problems in mathematical statistics.     

Application of replacement theory in dairy cows and its use in disease treatment

A model to simulate the costs and returns of an individual dairy cow over 14 years under various assumptions of genetic potential, health status and management was developed especially to evaluate the effects of diseases that reduce production and reproduction efficiency and to evaluate alternative management interventions. Data were collected from the Food Animal Health Resource Management System (FAHRMX), Today's Electronic Planning (TELPLAN), Today's Electric Farm Accounting (TELFARM) databases and secondary sources at Michigan State University. A case study of cystic ovaries was analysed using the model. The results showed that it is more economical to treat cystic ovaries than not to treat, and treatment with Gonadotropin Releasing Hormone (GNRH) was superior to Human Chrionic Gonadotropin (HCG). Four to five lactations were the optimum for keeping a dairy cow to replacement and it was estimated that there is a loss of US$0.45 per day of extended calving interval (days open beyond the optimal 70 days).