Behavioural Microsimulation with Labour Supply Responses

This paper provides a technical survey of recent developments in behavioural microsimulation. We discuss the criteria by which models of labour supply may be chosen for application to behavioural microsimulation, and consider how such models may be augmented to control for fixed costs, child–related work costs, preference heterogeneity and endogeneity in wages. We describe methods by which non–linear budget constraints may be accommodated in estimation, policy simulations and welfare analysis, and discuss how stochastic terms may be factored into the simulation of behavioural responses to a policy shock.     

On recalls, layoffs, variable hours, and labor adjustment costs

The paper analyzes the employment policy of a firm that can vary both hours and the level of employment. The analysis differs from previous work in the adjustment cost literature in that the firm is able to change its employment not only through hires, layoffs, and quits, but also by recalls of employees who were previously laid off. Thus, we introduce the possibility of the firm inventorying the labor input. It is shown that this labor inventory potential is necessary if the firm is to ever lay off workers. Further, it is demonstrated that linear rather than strictly convex adjustment costs are then required if the firm is to always recall employees who were previously laid off prior to hiring new workers.     

Tax competition,uniform assessment,and the benefit principle

In previous discussions it has been argued that tax competition between local governments results in a tax burden on business that is less than the cost of public services for business and in suboptimal levels of public expenditures for residents. However, this conclusion has never been substantiated by a full theoretical treatment. Here a theoretical model of tax competition is developed between metropolitan areas, with labor perfectly immobile and two local public goods, one for residents and one for business. For “plausible” parameter values, numerical solutions of the optimality conditions are computed by means of a nonlinear programming algorithm.     

A generalized lot sizing model for the process cycling problem

Most scheduling/lot sizing models for the single-machine problem assume that aggregate demand equals aggregate production; and that backorders are to be avoided. Where working inventories are low, the scheduler may wish to avoid short production runs and willingly incur some backorder penalties so as to increase the length of production runs and reduce setup costs per unit of time. The model proposed here identifies optimal lot sizes with respect to the backorder/setup cost relationships. Use of the model will result in an optimally balanced inventory even when aggregate inventory levels are changing.     

Why should firms manufacture retailer brands?

For firms manufacturing convenience goods there are three branding policies available, a proprietory brand policy, a retailer brand policy and a mixed brand policy. A firm's choice depends on differences in demand and promotion costs between the proprietory and retailer brand markets. This can be analysed using a simple elaboration of the standard 3rd degree price discrimination model. But if the two markets are not independent over the long-term there may be other consequences of following the optimization rules of the model. If retailers develop consumers' preference for their own shops and their own brands, the demand advantage enjoyed by manufacturers' brands may be reduced further. The more willing are manufacturers to supply retailer brands, the more retailers win undermine the demand for manufacturers' proprietory brands.     

Models of database marketing

Database systems are intimately associated with fundraising effectiveness, but often leave much to be desired in the way they are implemented. This paper looks at the strengths, weaknesses and origins of three main database types: island, integrated and transitional. Observations support the view that database systems are created reactively in the face of strategies for fundraising. Where marketing strategy dictates a holistic approach to donor management, then systems will ten to the integrated or ‘contacts’ model. However, where there is no co-ordinated view on donoi development and maximised lifetime value, then fragmented island-type databases will be found.     

中国城市中的三种贫困类型

我们课题组在 1 999年进行了一次覆盖六省市的住户调查。本文利用这次调查数据对中国城市贫困的性质和特点进行了考察。通过综合考虑收入标准和消费标准 ,我们把中国城镇贫困分为三种类型 ,即持久性贫困、暂时性性贫困和选择性贫困。在贫困人口中 ,有一大部分是属于选择性贫困 ,即他们的收入高于贫困线而消费低于贫困线。我们对贫困户的消费函数进行了估计 ,其结果显示以下几个因素对贫困状况产生重要的影响 :修匀收入的效应 ;人们防备外部环境不确定性的心理 ;人们为将来投资而进行储蓄的行为 ;家庭对子女教育和医疗服务的特别需要。我们还对三种贫困类型进行了比较分析 ,从中发现预测的金融资产和预测的收入 ,以及教育和医疗的特殊需要都对不同类型的贫困户的消费行为起到重要的影响作用     

Nonresponse Bias and Stimulus Effects in the Dutch National Election Study

Bias is a much-debated issue in survey research. Answer effects (respondents claim to have behaved differently than they did in reality), nonresponse bias (nonrespondents differ on important variables from the respondents) and stimulus effects (by participating in a previous wave of a study, respondents change their behavior or attitude) can seriously distort the results of survey research. By using data from the 1998 Dutch National Election Study the authors show that the results of election research can indeed be affected by bias. Not only are significant effects found in the distribution of political attitude and voting behavior variables as a result of both nonresponse bias and stimulus effects, it is also shown that relations between variables change as a result of bias.