Information and Communications Technology as a General-Purpose Technology: Evidence from US Industry Data

Abstract. Many people point to information and communications technology (ICT) as the key for understanding the acceleration in productivity in the United States since the mid-1990s. Stories of ICT as a 'general-purpose technology' suggest that measured total factor productivity (TFP) should rise in ICT-using sectors (reflecting either unobserved accumulation of intangible organizational capital; spillovers; or both), but with a long lag. Contemporaneously, however, investments in ICT may be associated with lower TFP as resources are diverted to reorganization and learning. We find that US industry results are consistent with general-purpose technology (GPT) stories: the acceleration after the mid-1990s was broad-based – located primarily in ICT-using industries rather than ICT-producing industries. Furthermore, industry TFP accelerations in the 2000s are positively correlated with (appropriately weighted) industry ICT capital growth in the 1990s. Indeed, as GPT stories would suggest, after controlling for past ICT investment, industry TFP accelerations are negatively correlated with increases in ICT usage in the 2000s.     

Training European trade unionists

This article analyses the findings from a pilot research project looking at the pattern of trade union education provision in Germany, Italy, Sweden and the UK. In each country the trade union movements are adapting their training systems to meet new challenges in often hostile economic and political climates. In spite of common problems there remain significant national differences in trade union education deriving from divergent traditions which we explore through a systems model which ocuses on the key issues of national legislation, funding, training provision and accreditation. We conclude by suggesting the need for new research and policy agendas.     

Valuing Internet Business

Is there a bubble in internet stock prices, has the new economy changed the rules of stock valuation? In this article, the authors argue that the old rules still apply. The only way to test the reasonableness of new economy stock prices is to model the company's ability to generate cash in the future. This analysis also allows the development of a view about the performance that would be needed to justify current valuations. The analysis suggests that many internet valuations are stretched. Investors are focused on growth prospects for the firms, but realistic analysis about future profitability has been neglected in what will be an increasingly competitive world. Further, investors' assumptions that the new economy businesses will not require assets are unrealistic in many cases. Finally, because some new economy stocks are overvalued, there is a risk of misdirection of productive resources.     

The Persistence of Profits in the Long Run: A New Approach

We present a trend‐based alternative to the standard first‐order autoregression model in persistence of profits studies. This is motivated by reservations over the interpretation of the standard model, and rests on a different concept of dynamic competition. A nine‐category taxonomy of long‐run persistence stereotypes is developed. Structural time series estimates are presented for a sample of UK companies. We find the null of long run competitive equilibrium not rejected in nearly a third of cases, but non‐eroding persistence to be present in around 60%.     

Modeling the relationship between networking and firm performance

Network theory suggests that successful business ownership might depend on the ability of owners to gain access to resources not under their control in a cost effective way through networking. To date, however, there has been little empirical support for this proposition, particularly for established firms. The results of this study, based on a large longitudinal database, indicate a significant positive relationship between networking (particularly with formal networks such as external accountants) and both firm survival and, to a lesser extent, growth, but not ROE. Further, network intensity is found to be associated with survival, and network range with growth.     

Common good leadership in business management: an ethical model from the Indian tradition

While dominant management thinking is steered by profit maximisation, this paper proposes that sustained organisational growth can best be stimulated by attention to the common good and the capacity of corporate leaders to create commitment to the common good. The leadership thinking of Kautilya and Ashoka embodies this principle. Both offer a common good approach, emphasising the leader's moral and legal responsibility for people's welfare, the robust interaction between the business community and the state, and the importance of moral training of leaders in identifying and promoting the common good. We argue that the complex process of re‐orientating corporate priorities towards the common good requires alertness and concerted effort if both business and society are to truly benefit. As Ashoka said: ‘A good deed is a difficult thing’.     

RISK PERCEPTION AND THE ANALYSIS OF RISK ATTITUDES*

Risk has long been recognised as an important feature of the environment facing farmers. In recent years the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory has been used to analyse decision making under risk. However, many people behave in a manner inconsistent with the expected utility theory. One widely suggested explanation is based on subjective probability distortion. A number of attempts to incorporate this phenomenon into utility theories have been made. In this paper, the problems of analysing subjective probability distortion are discussed. Evidence from a survey of farmers' risk attitudes undertaken in conjunction with the 1977 BAE Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey is analysed in the light of this discussion.