The political economy of public debt

Public debt (as opposed to current taxation) alters the inter-temporal pattern of tax rates??it reduces current rates and increases future rates. Accordingly, whether the share of the cost of a given public expenditure is reduced or increased by debt for a given individual depends on the time profile of that individual??s income (tax base) vis-à-vis others?? incomes. Therefore, given the age-profile of income in virtually all Western countries, individuals will tend to be better off under current taxes the younger they are. If (as most standard models of political economy assume) individuals vote according to their economic interests, and if they are tolerably well-informed, then the pattern of support for public debt will track age. And increases in the median age of the population will lead to larger public debt. In other words, public debt policy collapses to a kind of demographic politics. This explanation may, however, be sensitive to assumptions about motives for bequest. Specifically, if bequestors seek to leave positive bequests and are motivated exclusively by the lifetime consumption of their heirs (as well as themselves) then the aged may, under plausible assumptions about the age of their heirs, prefer current taxes over debt.     

Water policy reform in Australia: lessons from the Victorian seasonal water market*

The nature of the seasonal water market is examined using a theoretical model and empirical evidence from the Victorian market. Drivers of the seasonal opportunity cost of water include the underlying nature of investment in the industry made in the context of risky entitlement yields; and the timing and nature of information regarding seasonal water availability and rainfall. Seasonal water markets facilitate the re‐allocation of water availability according to this short‐run opportunity cost. Evidence from the market suggests that transactions costs are low and most of the existing constraints to trade in seasonal allocations are the result of hydrological conditions. Analysis of market data suggests that the price response of the market to water availability is much more pronounced in years of low rainfall. The implications of the paper for wider policy reform are that attention should be paid to improving property rights for the management of intertemporal risk before other reforms, such as broadening of permanent water markets and institutionalising environmental flows, are implemented. This is because these other reforms will change the spatial and temporal pattern of water use and thus affect reliability, which underpins the value of water in irrigated agriculture.     

Towards a tax constitution for Leviathan

This paper attempts to derive normative tax rules based on the constitutional calculus of the typical voter–taxpayer when he predicts that post-constitutional political processes will be dominated by a budget-maximizing Leviathan-like bureaucracy. In this setting, selection of tax institutions becomes part of the apparatus by which Leviathan is constrained. Such an approach generates tax rules strikingly at variance with more conventional norms. In particular, the goal of a ‘comprehensive’ tax base, which informs standard analysis, gives way to a preference for specific limitations on the width of the tax base: moves towards a greater comprehensiveness will lead inexorably to larger public spending, and beyond some point are clearly undesirable. The analysis also implies a rather unconventional defense of progression in the tax structure. An attempt is made to relate the discussion to contemporary tax reform issues.     

The Asymptotic Optimality of Residual Income Maximization

Residual income subtracts from operating income an interest charge for invested capital. Residual income can be calculated each period from current accounting information, unlike discounted cash flow (DCF), which requires the knowledge of future cash flows. This paper provides a normative justification for residual-income maximization by showing that if investment decisions are made myopically each period to maximize residual income, the resulting path asymptotically maximizes discounted cash flow. Thus, under the assumptions of the model, residual-income maximization is a heuristic that leads to the long-run DCF-optimum.     

Dividend‐Rollover Effect and the Ad Hoc Black‐Scholes Model

One of the most widely used option‐valuation models among practitioners is the ad hoc Black‐Scholes (AHBS) model. The main contribution of this study is methodological. We carefully consider three dividend strategies (No dividend, Implied‐forward dividend, and Actual dividend) for the AHBS model to investigate their effect on pricing errors. We suggest a new dividend strategy, implied‐forward dividend, which incorporates expectational information on dividends embedded in option prices. We demonstrate that our implied‐forward dividend strategy produces more consistent estimates between in‐sample market and model option prices. More importantly our new implied‐forward dividend strategy makes more accurate out‐of‐sample forecasts for one‐day or one‐week ahead prices. Second, we document that both a “Return‐volatility” Smile and a “Return‐pricing Error” Smile exist. From these return characteristics, we make two conclusions: (1) the return dependency of implied volatility is an important explanatory variable and should be controlled to reduce the pricing error of an AHBS model, and (2) it is important for the hedging horizon to be based on return size, that is, the larger the contemporaneous return, the more frequent an option issuer must rebalance the option's hedge. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 32:742‐772, 2012     

The nature of local area social exclusion in England and the role of the labour market

The creation of the Social Exclusion Unit by the present governmentin 1997 is just one example of the increased desire by bothacademics and policy-makers to understand more about the factorsthat lead to individuals and communities becoming excluded frommainstream society. Of the many aspects of social exclusionwhich have featured in recent debate, this article focuses ontwo. The first is to describe the nature and the extent of socialexclusion in the areas in which it is concentrated in the UnitedKingdom. The second is to examine the role that labour-marketfactors play in creating, reducing, or sustaining geographicalconcentrations of social exclusion. The article draws upon theresults of social surveys conducted in deprived areas and discussesthe arguments for tackling local concentrations of social exclusionthrough area-based initiatives.