Mean absolute percentage error and bias in economic forecasting

This article develops a simple theoretical framework to show how forecasters may bias downward point predictions under the assumption that the asymmetric loss function is directly related to the (Mean) Absolute Percentage Error (M)APE.     

Some things couples always wanted to know about stable matchings (but were afraid to ask)

In this note we study the National Resident Matching Program (NRMP) algorithm in the US market for physicians. We report on two problems that concern the presence of couples, a feature explicitly incorporated in the new NRMP algorithm (cf. Roth and Peranson in Am Econ Rev 89:748–780, 1999). First, we show that the new NRMP algorithm may not find an existing stable matching, even when couples’ preferences are ‘responsive’, i.e., when Gale and Shapley’s (Am Math Monthly 69:9–15, 1962) deferred acceptance algorithm (on which the old NRMP algorithm is based) is applicable. Second, we demonstrate that the new NRMP algorithm may also be anipulated by couples acting as singles.      

Mapping circular economy activities in the European Union: Patterns of implementation and their correlates in small and medium‐sized enterprises

With the European Commission looking for ways to incentivize the adoption of circular economy (CE) activities by small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) in the European Union (EU), further insights into the implementation of CE activities across member states are needed. We analyse a European Commission survey conducted in 2016 among approximately 11,000 firms in EU‐28 member states in order to throw light on the conditions in which SMEs engage in five specific CE activities. In contrast to previous studies arguing that CE activities are independent of each other, we present novel findings demonstrating that seven patterns of engagement in CE can be identified in which activities are systematically interdependent. Further, we show that these patterns are associated with the organizational properties of SMEs and are differentially distributed among EU member states and industrial sectors. The interdependency of activities forms a hierarchy in which waste minimization is the most likely activity to be implemented in SMEs, followed, in descending order of likelihood, by replanning of energy use, redesigning products and services, and finally using renewable energy and replanning water usage. The findings have theoretical, managerial, and policy implications for the adoption of interdependent CE activities.     

Forecasting inflation using time‐varying Bayesian model averaging

This paper presents a Bayesian model averaging regression framework for forecasting US inflation, in which the set of predictors included in the model is automatically selected from a large pool of potential predictors and the set of regressors is allowed to change over time. Using real‐time data on the 1960–2011 period, this model is applied to forecast personal consumption expenditures and gross domestic product deflator inflation. The results of this forecasting exercise show that, although it is not able to beat a simple random‐walk model in terms of point forecasts, it does produce superior density forecasts compared with a range of alternative forecasting models. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis shows that the forecasting results are relatively insensitive to prior choices and the forecasting performance is not affected by the inclusion of a very large set of potential predictors.     

Migrants and market potential in Spain over the twentieth century: a test of the new economic geography

In this paper, we offer a structural contrast of a new economic geography model in Spain over three different periods: the 1920s, the 1960s, and the early years of the 21st century. In line with Crozet (J Econ Geogr 4:439–458, 2004), we analyse the possible existence of a forward effect, i.e. the existence of a relationship between the workers’ localisation decisions and the market potential of the regions. Our results show that this model provides a good explanation of migrant behaviour in Spain throughout the 20th century. Moreover, the changes in the parameters estimated are consistent with a change in the migratory model and reflect the tendency towards a spatial redispersion of economic activity in recent decades.     

Cost Uncertainty and Taxpayer Compliance

The existence of a private cost borne by audited taxpayers affects the tax enforcement policy. This is so because tax auditors will face now two sources of uncertainty, namely, the typical one associated with taxpayers’ income and that associated with the taxpayers’ idiosyncratic attitude towards tax compliance. Moreover, the inspection policy can be exposed to some randomness from the taxpayers’ viewpoint due to the uncertainty about the audit cost borne by the tax authority. In this paper we provide an unified framework to analyze the effects of all these sources of uncertainty in a model of tax compliance with strategic interaction between auditors and taxpayers. We show that more variance in the distribution of the taxpayers’ private cost of evading raises both tax compliance and the ex-ante welfare of taxpayers. The effects of the uncertainty about the audit cost faced by the tax authority are generally ambiguous. We also discuss the implications of our model for the regressive (or progressive) bias of the effective tax system.     

Panel‐data Estimates of the Production Function and the Revenue Function: What Difference Does It Make?*

The lack of individual firm information on output prices is a major problem in the econometrics of production. In particular, it may be expected to account for a significant share of the large discrepancies found between the cross‐sectional and time‐series estimates of capital and scale elasticities. However, taking advantage of two panel‐data samples for which we had such information, we find that estimating the revenue function (using a nominal output measure) or the production function proper (using a real output measure) makes very little difference for our results. The biases due to other sources of specification errors are probably more important.     

Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks*

We propose a Lagrange Multiplier‐type statistic to test the null hypothesis of cointegration allowing for the possibility of a structural break, in both the deterministic and the cointegration vectors. Our proposal focuses on the presence of endogenous regressors. The test complements the usual non‐cointegration tests so as to obtain stronger evidence of cointegration. We consider the cases of known and unknown dates of the break. In the latter case, we show that minimizing the Sum of Squared Residuals results in a super‐consistent estimator of the break fraction. Finally, the behaviour of the tests is studied through Monte Carlo experiments.