A parsimonious model to forecast financial distress,based on audit evidence

This paper provides evidence that audit reports convey relevant evidence for inferring the existence of underlying, unrevealed, financial imbalances. Unlike previous works, which studied US listed-firms bankruptcy, our research deals with Spanish non-financial SMEs under financial stress. Our results indicate that the audit of distressed SMEs has several distinctive features: higher auditor rotation, more qualified reports, and non-compliance with deadlines to approve and file the annual financial statements. We use this evidence to build and test a parsimonious and reliable forecast model. Several implications for auditors’ independence, information quality, and failure forecast are discussed.     

Bounds for Ratios of Posterior Expectations: Applications in the Collective Risk Model

This paper considers the collective risk model for the insurance claims process. We will adopt a Bayesian point of view, where uncertainty concerning the specification of the prior distribution is a common question. The robust Bayesian approach uses a class of prior distributions which model uncertainty about the prior, instead of a single distribution. Relatively little research has dealt with robustness with respect to ratios of posterior expectations as occurs with the Esscher and Variance premium principles. Appropriate techniques are developed in this paper to solve this problem using the k -contamination class in the collective risk model.     

Increasing a brand’s competitive clout: the role of market share,consumer preference,and price sensitivity

The market power (or ‘competitive clout’) of a brand is an increasingly important component of modern marketing strategies. However, the factors that enhance a brand’s competitive clout (BCC) are poorly understood. This study therefore suggests an integrated model of BCC and three factors that are proposed to play a role in its formation: (i) consumer price sensitivity; (ii) brand market share; and (iii) consumer brand preferences. These variables are examined both individually and simultaneously to demonstrate the direct effect of each on BCC and how their inter-relationships contribute to BCC. In doing so, a two-step empirical analysis is conducted. First, two multinomial logit models provide an own- and a cross-price response matrix for a chosen set of competitive brands. Secondly, BCC is regressed against the variables of market share, intrinsic preferences, and price sensitivity using an interaction effects regression model. The results of the analysis show that market share is not the only way to increase BCC; in particular, consumer preferences, and especially pricing decisions, are shown to play a key role in developing a strong brand.     

Bivariate and multivariate scaled association models. An application to homogamy of social origin and education in Hungary between 1930 and 1979

In this article we compare bivariate and multivariate models for homogamy of social origin and education to test whether bivariate models of homogamy lead to biased results. We use data on Hungarian couples married between 1930 and 1979 and loglinear models of scaled association. The results indicate some differences between bivariate and multivariate analyses. At each point of time bivariate models overestimate homogamy, both with respect to education and social origin. However, results on trends in time do not differ much between the two analyses. The exception is the period 1940–1959, in which bivariate analysis showed decreasing educational homogamy, and multivariate analysis showed an increasing trend. The latter finding can be explained by declining homogamy of social origin, as well as the weaker reproduction and cross-effects in this period.     

Youth Poverty,Employment, and Leaving the Parental Home in Europe

This paper studies the nature of youth poverty dynamics in Europe. First, it analyzes to what extent experiencing poverty in a given period is in itself positively related to the probability of living below the poverty line again in the future. That is, we assess the degree of poverty genuine state dependence among young people. Second, we study the interrelationships between poverty, employment, and residential emancipation. The results show that youth poverty genuine state dependence is positive and highly significant, but this scarring effect is short‐lived in Scandinavia compared to Southern or Continental Europe. Moreover, although we find a strong association between poverty and leaving home in Nordic countries, time spent in economic hardship does not last long. On the contrary, in Spain and Italy, young adults tend to leave their parental home much later in order to avoid falling into a poverty state that is more persistent.     

西方消费文化理论研究的发展、演变与反思

西方消费文化理论运用了社会学、哲学、历史学、政治学等跨学科研究方法，经历了传统社会、现代社会到后现代社会的深刻变化，形成了炫耀性消费、符号消费等诸多理论，对其进行全面评述，并加以批判性运用，是当前西方消费文化研究的重要任务。     

Co-creation with clients of hotel services: the moderating role of top management support

Hotels can strengthen their competitiveness by expanding their innovation process beyond the boundaries of the firm to exploit the valuable knowledge and skills of their customers. This study examines the effects of new service (NS) co-creation with customers in the hotel industry on NS performance, as well as the moderating role of top management support. The research also explores the main barriers faced by hotels to co-create service innovations. Partial least squares structural equation modelling results indicate that Customer co-creation exerts a direct impact on NS market outcomes and NS development (NSD) speed, which in turn favours NS quality. NS quality translates into better NS customer-related outcomes as well as in improved NS market outcomes. Top management support enhances the effect of Customer co-creation on the NSD speed. The main barrier to NS co-creation in hotels is to find customers interested in devoting time to this activity or with the appropriate knowledge and experience.     

Private equity leveraged buyouts in European telecoms: The case of Eircom

Highly leveraged buyouts (LBOs) of former state owned telecoms operators by private equity groups have occurred in a number of countries in recent years. This paper examines the case of Eircom in Ireland which has experienced five changes in ownership since full privatisation in 1999, two of which were LBOs. Enormous increases in Eircom’s debt levels as a result of the LBOs resulted in the company’s bankruptcy in 2012. This paper argues that this outcome was largely attributable to the short-termist strategies adopted by the private equity groups that assumed ownership of the enterprise. These strategies included high leverage, cash extraction and underinvestment in the fixed-line network which contributed to the demise of the enterprise and had wider economic and social effects. The Eircom case demonstrates the risks attendant to ownership of important network infrastructure by private equity groups and the need for regulatory safeguards to protect the public interest.     

Assessing Systemic Importance With a Fuzzy Logic Inference System

Three metrics are designed to assess Colombian financial institutions' size, connectedness and non-substitutability as the main drivers of systemic importance: (i) centrality as net borrower in the money market network; (ii) centrality as payments originator in the large-value payment system network; and (iii) asset value of core financial services. An aggregated systemic importance index is calculated based on expert knowledge by using a fuzzy logic inference system. We use principal component analysis to calculate a benchmark index for comparison purposes. Overall similarities between both indexes put forward that expert knowledge aggregation is consistent with that based on a purely quantitative standard approach. Specific non-negligible differences concur with the nonlinear features of an approach whose intention is to replicate human reasoning. Both indexes are complementary and provide a comprehensive relative assessment of each financial institution's systemic importance in the Colombian case, in which the choice of metrics pursues the macroprudential perspective of financial stability. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.