U.S. REAL PRODUCT AND REAL FACTOR INPUT, 1929–1967

The objective of this paper is to provide a conceptual basis for separating social product and social factor input accounts into price and quantity components. Despite the essential similarity between concepts of real product and real factor input, the measurement of social factor outlay in constant prices is not well established in social accounting practice.
Production accounts are constructed for the United States in current and constant prices, including social product and social factor outlay, for the period 1929–1967. The resulting estimates are applied to the measurement of total factor productivity and the study of the responsiveness of product and factor intensities to price changes.     

On the Economic Meaning of Machina's Fréchet Differentiability Assumption

This note shows that M. J. Machina's (1982, Econometrica50, 277-323) assumption that preferences over lotteries are smooth has some economic implications. We show that Fréchet differentiability implies that preferences represent second order risk aversion (as well as conditional second order risk aversion). This implies, among other things, that decision makers buy full insurance only at the absence of marginal loading. We also show that with constant absolute and relative risk aversion, expected value maximization, second order risk aversion, and Fréchet differentiability are equivalent. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Number: D81.     

Time,Price, and Advanced Booking of Hotel Rooms

ABSTRACT

The effectiveness of revenue management systems has diminished in recent years due to the systems' inability to address the increasing complication of online deal-seeking behavior. To restore their efficiency, one must first understand the changes in advanced-booking behavior and their implications. This study expands the consumer booking model by addressing the impact of time-before-the-date-of-stay and exploring the implication for the hotel's pricing/marketing strategies. The findings underscore the urgent need for empirical research on timing by showing that the predictions of the advanced-booking model, and consequently the effectiveness of RM systems, depend on the actual patterns over time.     

Do a firm's equity returns reflect the risk of its pension plan?

This paper examines the empirical question of whether systematic equity risk of US firms as measured by beta from the capital asset pricing model reflects the risk of their pension plans. There are a number of reasons to suspect that it might not. Chief among them is the opaque set of accounting rules used to report pension assets, liabilities, and expenses. Pension plan assets and liabilities are off-balance sheet and are often viewed as segregated from the rest of the firm, with its own trustees. Pension accounting rules are complicated. Furthermore, the role of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation clouds the real relation between pension plan risk and firm equity risk. The empirical findings in this paper are consistent with the hypothesis that equity risk does reflect the risk of the firm's pension plan despite arcane accounting rules for pensions. This finding is consistent with informational efficiency of the capital markets. It also has implications for corporate finance practice in the determination of the cost of capital for capital budgeting. Standard procedure uses de-leveraged equity return betas to infer the cost of capital for operating assets. But the de-leveraged betas are not adjusted for the risk of the pension assets and liabilities. Failure to make this adjustment typically biases upward estimates of the discount rate for capital budgeting. The magnitude of the bias is shown here to be large for a number of well-known US companies. This bias can result in positive net present value projects being rejected.     

The impact of fees on visitation of national parks

This study assesses the impact of the change in revenue management policy (namely the increased public land recreation fees) on the number of domestic and international travelers that visit the large, mostly well-known US National Park System sites. Baseline, multivariate demand models were developed based on secondary data from 10 years prior to the fee policy change, and were used to predict demand in years following the fee change. The predictions of the baseline demand models were then compared to the sites’ actual visitation. The differences between the actual and the predicted visitation are statistically significant, indicating that the change in the federal agencies’ revenue management policy might have had an adverse effect on the visitation of the largest US national sites.     

Characterization of the private alternatives domains admitting arrow social welfare functions

An n-person social choice problem is considered in which the alternatives are n dimensional vectors with the ith component of such a vector being the part of the alternative effecting individual i alone. Assuming that individuals are selfish (i is indifferent between any two alternatives that have the same ith component) we characterize all the families of permissible individual preferences that admit nondictatorial Arrow-type social welfare functions. We also show that the existence of such a function for a given family of preferences is independent of n provided that is greater than one.