Inflation (mis)perceptions in the euro area

There has been a growing interest on inflation perceptions in the euro area, in particular, following the euro cash changeover. It has been pointed out that a gap emerged between observed and perceived inflation since the introduction of the euro notes and coins. Such a statement relies on the fact that inflation perceptions, measured by the well-known balance statistic from the European Commission’s consumer survey, hiked after January 2002 and remained high thereafter, as opposed to the observed inflation, which has remained fairly stable. In this paper, we discuss the measurement of inflation perceptions, by comparing the balance statistic with a refined alternative measure, which is computed using the probability method. We argue that the balance statistic should be used carefully, as it can lead to misleading conclusions. In fact, we find no evidence, both for euro area and individual countries, of the breakdown in the relationship between observed and perceived inflation, as measured by the proposed alternative measure, at the time of the euro cash changeover.     

On price equilibrium with multi-product firms

In this paper, we provide a result that shows existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibrium in cases in which existing methods are problematic. This result is based on a theorem by Kellogg (Proc Am Math Soc 60:207–210, 1976) that provides conditions for the existence of a unique fixed point. We apply it to the simple logit discrete choice model and the CES representative consumer model, where asymmetric cost firms produce multiple vertically and horizontally differentiated products and compete in prices.     

Reforms that keep you at home: The effects of economic transition on migration

Theory asserts that individuals’ migration decisions depend more on their expectations about future income levels than on their current income levels. We find that the implementation of market-oriented reforms in post-communist countries, by forming positive economic prospects, has reduced emigration as predicted by theory. Our estimates show that migration flows are highly responsive to reforms supporting private enterprises and financial services, which provide individuals with strong signals about their future prospects. We show that reforms that improve the management of infrastructure services have no link with migration patterns, which may be an important lesson for government policy.     

A new axiomatization of the Banzhaf semivalue

A new characterization of the Banzhaf semivalue on the domain of monotonic simple games is given. We use the well-known valuation and dummy axioms plus two additional properties. The first one simply requires that the power-index be bigger for those players belonging to more winning coalitions. The second one is the proportionality axiom introduced by Owen in (1982) which is suitable for those simple games that represent an indirect voting process.     

Noncentral bimatrix variate generalised beta distributions

In this paper, we determine the density functions of nonsymmetrised doubly noncentral matrix variate beta type I and II distributions. The nonsymmetrised density functions of doubly noncentral and noncentral bimatrix variate generalised beta type I and II distributions are also obtained.     

HEGY Tests in the Presence of Moving Averages*

We analyze the asymptotic distributions associated with the seasonal unit root tests of Hylleberg et al. (1990) for quarterly data when the innovations follow a moving average process. Although both the t‐ and F‐type tests suffer from scale and shift effects compared with the presumed null distributions when a fixed order of autoregressive augmentation is applied, these effects disappear when the order of augmentation is sufficiently large. However, as found by Burridge and Taylor (2001) for the autoregressive case, individual t‐ratio tests at the semi‐annual frequency are not pivotal even with high orders of augmentation, although the corresponding joint F‐type statistic is pivotal. Monte Carlo simulations verify the importance of the order of augmentation for finite samples generated by seasonally integrated moving average processes.     

Qualitative/quantitative integration in the inductive observational study of interactive behaviour: impact of recording and coding among predominating perspectives

A strong dichotomy has traditionally been established between qualitative and quantitative approaches. This question has been the subject of intense debate from a methodological point of view, and in recent years there are clear signs that the conflict is being overcome; nevertheless, we are still some way from a genuine position of complementarity and integration, and the issue remains to be considered in the process of theorization along the tortuous path that leads from the particular to the general. The proposal in this article takes a further step forward as regards this question, this time with respect to the study of interactive behaviour. The key is once again the consideration of a “complete unit” of analysis, but the logic of the observational methodology process enables the perspectives to be sequenced: the study begins with a predominantly qualitative approach before subjecting the data to a given type of recording (through the important support of field formats) and coding (preferably computerized), thus producing a matrix of formally interchangeable data; finally, the criterion is reversed and the study continues under a predominantly quantitative perspective.     

Interpretation problems of the partial correlation with nonnormally distributed variables

The partial correlation is a commonly used measure for assessing the bivariate correlation of two quantitative variables after eliminating the influence of one or more other variables. The partial correlation is generally interpreted as the correlation that would result if the variables to be eliminated were fixed (not allowed to vary and influence the other variables), which is referred to in the statistical literature as conditional correlation. The present paper demonstrates, by means of theoretical derivations and practical examples, that when the assumption of multivariate normality is violated (e.g., as a result of nonlinear relationships among the variables investigated) the usual interpretation of the partial correlation coefficient will be basically incorrect. In extreme cases the value of the partial correlation coefficient may be strongly positive, close to 1, whereas the conditional correlation may have a large negative value. To solve this problem the paper suggests to partial out a certain function (in most cases the square) of the variables whose effects are to be eliminated if nonlinear relationships are likely to occur.