An application of two-stage quantile regression to insurance ratemaking

Two-part models based on generalized linear models are widely used in insurance rate-making for predicting the expected loss. This paper explores an alternative method based on quantile regression which provides more information about the loss distribution and can be also used for insurance underwriting. Quantile regression allows estimating the aggregate claim cost quantiles of a policy given a number of covariates. To do so, a first stage is required, which involves fitting a logistic regression to estimate, for every policy, the probability of submitting at least one claim. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a portfolio of car insurance policies. This application shows that the results of the quantile regression are highly dependent on the claim probability estimates. The paper also examines an application of quantile regression to premium safety loading calculation, the so-called Quantile Premium Principle (QPP). We propose a premium calculation based on quantile regression which inherits the good properties of the quantiles. Using the same insurance portfolio data-set, we find that the QPP captures the riskiness of the policies better than the expected value premium principle.     

Size,R&D productivity and Decision Styles

We extend the size–innovation debate by incorporating decision-making style as a relevant factor in the innovation process. We propose that the size of firms affects the scale and quality of product innovation through the adoption of different decision-making styles. Using the literature on cognition, we conceptualize decision-making style as the degree to which firms rely on analytical information for decision making during the R&D process. Using longitudinal data of Spanish firms, we show that, as firms increase in size, they rely more extensively on analytical decision tools for the innovation activity. Additionally, we show that the size of firms is negatively related to product innovation productivity in terms of scale and positively related to the quality, and that these relationships are mediated by firms’ reliance on analytical decision-making style. We discuss theoretical and managerial implications for innovation research and practice.     

A spatial approach to the FDI-growth nexus in Spain: Dealing with the headquarters effect

This paper examines the effects of inward FDI on economic growth across the Spanish regions over the period 1996–2013, paying particular attention to the ‘headquarters effect’, namely that FDI is not always registered where it is effectively made but in the region in which the firm’s headquarters is located. By estimating a panel Spatial Durbin Model to allow for the detection of spatial spillovers, two main findings are reported. First, FDI does foster economic growth. Second, only when the headquarters effect is properly addressed do spatial spillovers arise. Hence, this effect is masking the impact of regional FDI spillovers on growth, which affects the reliability of the results and, consequently, FDI policies choice. Importantly, the results are: a) robust to the way of computing the headquarters effect; b) independent of the spatial weight matrix specification; and c) confirmed when splitting FDI into different industrial and service branches.     

Patterns of Entry,Post-Entry Growth and Survival: A Comparison Between Domestic and Foreign Owned Firms

This study compares the patterns of entry, survival and growth of domestic and foreign owned firms. We show that the post-entry behavior of foreign owned firms is quite different from that of their domestic counterparts. Among foreign entrants, we were able to distinguish between those which proceed by creating a new firm and those that acquire an already existing business. Our evidence reveals that the choice of the mode of entry in foreign markets exerts an impact upon the performance of firms that persists long after the moment of entry. As a consequence, our work clearly indicates that there is much to be gained in the understanding ofthe process of entry in foreign markets by studying the behavior of entrants over their first years in these markets.     

The Dynamics of Productivity: A Decompostion Approach Using Distribution Functions

In this paper we use a micro panel data set of Spanish manufacturing firms to measure the contributions of continuing firms and turnover to total factor productivity growth over the period 1990–1997. The paper proposes an approach to the decomposition of productivity growth that is based on the estimation of productivity distributions. We characterize the dynamics of productivity distributions defining counterfactual distributions and using non-parametric methods. The results we obtain indicate that incumbent firms are the main factor contributing to the change in the productivity distribution. Net entry contributes positively to TFP growth. Finally, changes in the relative weights of incumbent, entering and exiting firms produce a counter-cyclical movement of productivity.     

Testing trade-off and pecking order theories financing SMEs

This paper explores two of the most important theories behind financial policy in Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs), namely, the pecking order and the trade-off theories. Panel data methodology is used to test empirical hypotheses on a sample of 3,569 Spanish SMEs over a 10-year period dating from 1995 to 2004. Results suggest that both theoretical models help to explain SME capital structure. However, despite finding clear evidence that SMEs follow a funding source hierarchy (pecking order model), our results reveal that greater trust is placed in SMEs that aim to reach target or optimum leverage (trade-off model). This remains true even when SMEs take a long time to reach this level, due to the high transaction costs they have to face. Non-debt tax shields (NDTS), growth opportunities and internal resources all seem to play an important role in determining SME capital structure. Both size and age are also found to be significant factors. Moreover, the empirical evidence obtained confirms that SMEs clearly behave differently to large firms where financing is concerned.

University Students’ Attitudes Towards Entrepreneurship: A Two Countries Comparison

There is general agreement that attitudes towards the entrepreneur, entrepreneurial activity, and its social function are determinant factors for university students to decide an entrepreneurial career.This empirical study aims at assessing and comparing the attitudes of university students towards entrepreneurship and enterprise formation in Catalonia and Puerto Rico, using a sample of 837 and 435 students, respectively.Results reveal a positive entrepreneur’s image. Both samples have a favorable perception of desirability of new venture creation, although the perception of feasibility is by far not so positive and only a small percentage has the firm intention to create a new company.     

Exchange-proofness or divorce-proofness? Stability in one-sided matching markets

Two stability concepts for one-sided matching markets are analyzed: Gale-Shapley stability and ξ-stability. The first one applies best to markets where no status quo allocation is considered, whereas the second one is a solution to be used when property rights are allowed. A common problem of existence is shared by both solution concepts. Hence, we study economic environments where this problem does not exist, and present a family of agents’ preferences for which existence is guaranteed for both Gale-Shapley stable and ξ-stable outcomes. This work was finished while the author was visiting Duke University, whose hospitality is gratefully acknowledged. Swveral discussions with Salvador Barberà, Hervé Moulin and Marilda Sotomayor and some advice by an anonymous referee were specially useful. This work is partially supported by Grants PB 92-0590 and PB 93-0938 from the DGICYT, the Spanish Ministery of Educación Ciencia, and the Institut Valencià d’Investigacions Econòmiques.     

Modeling Cyclical Asymmetries in European Imports

This paper applies smooth transition models to capture the nonlinear behavior in the imports data of six major European economies and to assess whether such nonlinearities are related to business cycle asymmetries. Two classes of switch between regimes are considered: endogenously determined transition that assumes nonlinearities are generated by idiosyncratic components specific to foreign trade, and exogenous transition based on GDP growth as a more direct indicator of the cyclical state of the economy. The results support the proposition that the dynamics of imports are nonlinear. In Belgium, France, Spain, and the United Kingdom, regimes change over the business cycle, while in Germany and Italy the switch between regimes is endogenous. National characteristics play a role in defining the position of extreme regimes, the smoothness of the transition, and local dynamics within each state.Previous versions of this article have been presented at the 57th International Atlantic Economic Conference (Lisbon, Portugal, March 10–14, 2004) and at the VII Encuentro de Economía Aplicada (Vigo, Spain, June 3–5, 2004). The authors thank the conference participants and an anonymous referee for their comments.     

Spanish Economic Review referees (2003-2004)

Spanish Economic Review referees (2003-2004)

Spanish Economic Review referees (2003-2004)