The use of earnings and cash flows in investment decisions in the U.S. and Mexico: Experimental evidence

In this study, we investigate which of two accounting performance measures, earnings or cash flows, is used more in valuation decisions by non-professional investors in the United States and in Mexico. This issue is relevant for the Mexican Stock Market (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores) because the Bolsa's growth has stagnated compared with markets of other Latin American countries. Results of the study reveal that the majority of participants in the U.S. rely on earnings while the majority of participants in Mexico rely on cash flows. Results also suggest that the users’ predisposition can be dysfunctional to the extent that they do not consider using the other accounting measure, even when doing so made it easier to arrive at the correct valuation result (i.e. they did not choose to use the more persistent and therefore easier to forecast accounting measure). However, results are mixed for participants using earnings, since we document a higher chance of forecasting errors for participants in both countries when using earnings rather than cash flows in their calculations for the failure of these participants to adjust earnings for depreciation.This study extends the existing international literature by documenting a country-specific predisposition to use cash flows or earnings as a valuation tool by non-professional investors. Moreover, this study also shows that this predisposition can be dysfunctional, leading participants to make incorrect valuation decisions as a result of their failure to consider the differential persistence of the two accounting measures presented in the experiment.     

Assessing the impact of educational differences in HCI design practice

Human–computer interaction (HCI) design generally involves collaboration from professionals in different disciplines. Trained in different design education systems, these professionals can have different conceptual understandings about design. Recognizing and identifying these differences are key issues for establishing shared design practices within the educational community. Contributing to this understanding, we examined whether and how two different populations of students have different knowledge structures with respect to HCI design. We adopted the romantic, conservative and pragmatic dimensions, previously investigated in the related research, to elucidate those differences. This paper compares one specific type of design artefact—conceptual frameworks—created by groups of students with different educational backgrounds: Arts and Engineering. It was based on a set of 22 criteria divided by two main domains: scheme (addressing form) and realm (focusing on contents). The obtained results show that students with background in Engineering (1) focus more on the product of design; (2) rely less on conceptual frameworks to guide the design process; and (3) produce artefacts that are more constrained in terms of signal-to-noise ratio, definition of a symbolic system, and information organization and shaping. We suggest that conceptual frameworks serve to communicate and understand design practice. We note that Engineering students seem to be more susceptible to fixation than Arts students and suggest that an emphasis of reflection-in-action could help compensating this problem.     

NYSE execution quality subsequent to migration to hybrid

In October 2006, the NYSE began rolling-out phase three of a four-phase plan initiate its new Hybrid trading mechanism. The results show that this new trading platform introduced a much larger proportion of electronic transactions relative to floor auction transactions. This migration to electronic transactions is further evidenced by a mirror shift in price discovery from floor trades to trades marked for automatic electronic execution. In addition, the move to Hybrid trading introduced a significant decrease in inventory control costs, as well as a noticeable increase in trade persistence. Finally, the new trading platform has increased the speed with which orders are met, and has also decreased the proportion of executed shares which receive price improvement.

Do Investment Newsletters Move Markets?

We analyze the market impact of stock recommendations made by a single investment newsletter that focuses on instances of heavy insider trading. The market reacts positively to the actual insider trades and the associated Form 4 Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filings that attracted the newsletter's interest. The subsequent recommendations, which occur within a delay of several days, are associated with an even larger announcement period return and higher trade volume. Thus, despite the fact that recommendations are largely based on publicly available information on insider trades and the reach of the newsletter is limited, the newsletter has a significant impact on the market.     

Empirical analysis of the average asset correlation for real estate investment trusts

The credit risk capital requirements within the current Basel II Accord are based on the asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) approach. The asset correlation parameter, defined as an obligor's sensitivity to the ASRF, is a key driver within this approach, and its average values for different types of obligors are to be set by regulators. Specifically, for commercial real estate (CRE) lending, the average asset correlations are to be determined using formulas for either income-producing real estate or high-volatility commercial real estate. In this paper, the value of this parameter was empirically examined using portfolios of U.S. publicly-traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) as a proxy for CRE lending more generally. CRE lending as a whole was found to have the same calibrated average asset correlation as corporate lending, providing support for the recent U.S. regulatory decision to treat these two lending categories similarly for regulatory capital purposes. However, the calibrated values for CRE categories, such as multi-family residential or office lending, varied in important ways. The comparison of calibrated and regulatory values of the average asset correlations for these categories suggests that the current regulatory formulas generate parameter values that may be too high in most cases.     

Default and bankruptcy in an entrepreneurial economy with incomplete markets

We build a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets, production, default, and bankruptcy. The existence of equilibrium is proved. Theoretically, under appropriate conditions, we show that the reduced-form entrepreneurial equilibrium and profit-maximization entrepreneurial equilibrium, as defined by Magill and Quinzii (1996), are equivalent. In addition, we find an inverse relationship between the economy real interest rate and the probability of default. This result is empirically tested by applying the Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates for a sample of sole proprietorships’ unsecured credit operations in the Brazilian economy. The estimates confirm the findings from the theoretical model.     

Semi‐nonparametric competing risks analysis of recidivism

In this paper we specify a semi‐nonparametric competing risks (SNP‐CR) model of recidivism, for misdemeanors and felonies. The model is a bivariate mixed proportional hazard model with Weibull baseline hazards and common unobserved heterogeneity. The distribution of the latter is modeled semi‐nonparametrically, using orthonormal Legendre polynomials on the unit interval, and integrated out to make the two durations dependent, conditional on the covariates. The SNP‐CR model involved corresponds to a Logit model for felony arrest; hence the validity of the SNP‐CR model can be tested by testing the validity of the implied Logit model. The latter will be done by using the integrated conditional moment (ICM) test. In the first instance we have estimated and tested two versions of the SNP‐CR model, without and with fixed state effects. However, the ICM test rejects these models. Therefore, we have estimated and tested the model for each state separately. These state models are not rejected by the ICM test. Indeed, the estimation results vary substantially per state. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mexico's private toll road program reconsidered

Mexico's private toll road program of 1989–1994 is famous both as one of the first and the most ambitious highway privatization programs among the developing countries and as one of the most dramatic failures. In just five years Mexico awarded 52 concessions totaling over 5300 km of toll roads, but as early as 1993 many of the concessions had to be renegotiated and in 1997 the government was forced to takeover 23 of them at an immediate financial cost of billions of dollars. This paper reconsiders the Mexican program and, with the benefit of hindsight, argues that it does not deserve its bad reputation. Although Mexico made some important mistakes in the design of the concessions, many of the highways turned out to be socially worthwhile investments. Moreover, the restructuring of the concessions in 1993–1997 converted many of them into financially profitable projects over the long-term, while the 1997 bailout ended up costing the government little in budget terms.