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11.
Alejandro Montecinos-Pearce Pablo Rodrigo Ignacio J. Duran 《Managerial and Decision Economics》2020,41(8):1387-1402
Escalation of commitment (EOC) has been usually studied from a psychological lens, and only recently have scholars approached EOC from an economic perspective. We contribute to this by focusing on iterative decision-making in group settings with a game theory approach. We study how the group members' strategic interaction may result in continuing failing courses of action. Drawing on the Byzantine generals' problem, our model considers an iterative decision-making process where committee participants vote based on private information to escalate or not. Our article demonstrates that if decision-makers reset their beliefs based on the committee's previous decision, then EOC becomes perpetual. 相似文献
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We provide an equilibrium framework for modeling the behavior of an agent who holds a simplified view of a dynamic optimization problem. The agent faces a Markov decision process, where a transition probability function determines the evolution of a state variable as a function of the previous state and the agent's action. The agent is uncertain about the true transition function and has a prior over a set of possible transition functions; this set reflects the agent's (possibly simplified) view of her environment and may not contain the true function. We define an equilibrium concept and provide conditions under which it characterizes steady-state behavior when the agent updates her beliefs using Bayes' rule. 相似文献
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In this paper we specify a semi‐nonparametric competing risks (SNP‐CR) model of recidivism, for misdemeanors and felonies. The model is a bivariate mixed proportional hazard model with Weibull baseline hazards and common unobserved heterogeneity. The distribution of the latter is modeled semi‐nonparametrically, using orthonormal Legendre polynomials on the unit interval, and integrated out to make the two durations dependent, conditional on the covariates. The SNP‐CR model involved corresponds to a Logit model for felony arrest; hence the validity of the SNP‐CR model can be tested by testing the validity of the implied Logit model. The latter will be done by using the integrated conditional moment (ICM) test. In the first instance we have estimated and tested two versions of the SNP‐CR model, without and with fixed state effects. However, the ICM test rejects these models. Therefore, we have estimated and tested the model for each state separately. These state models are not rejected by the ICM test. Indeed, the estimation results vary substantially per state. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Adolescence constitutes the second and final window of human growth and a period of specific vulnerabilities, such as early pregnancy, early marriage, HIV infection, suicide, violence, alcohol, and drugs. Only a limited body of research investigates the effects of humanitarian crises on the human capital and well-being of adolescents. The evidence focuses on the short-term effects of conflict and, to a lesser extent, natural disasters on education, physical health, and nutrition, but not on mental health. Most analyses examine the situations of individuals exposed in utero and young childhood, but rarely during adolescence. Typically missing are robust empirical identification strategies and estimates on heterogeneous effects across age or gender. The lack of quality data and challenges in defining adolescence, establishing causality, or ensuring ethical research explain the knowledge gaps. Possible ways to expand the evidence base include mixing georeferenced data on individual location with georeferenced data on crises, sharpening quasi-experimental analytical techniques, and reconsidering the current timing of demographic data collection, now spanning 4- or 5-year intervals. The failure to make such adjustments will end by ignoring specific vulnerabilities among adolescents and render sustainable progress in well-being globally, narrowing inequalities, and guaranteeing human rights to all more difficult to achieve. 相似文献
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Cordero Jose M. Polo Cristina Tzeremes Nickolaos G. 《Journal of Productivity Analysis》2020,53(3):377-390
Journal of Productivity Analysis - The paper applies some of the latest advances of probabilistic approach to account directly for unobserved heterogeneity in the estimation of efficiency measures... 相似文献
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This paper focuses on the pass-through of exchange rate changes into the prices of imports made by euro area countries originating outside the area. Using data on import unit values for 13 different product categories for each country, we estimate industry-specific rates of pass-through across and within countries for all euro members. In the short-run, pass-through rates differ across industries and countries and are less than one. In the long-run neither full pass-through nor equality of pass-through rates across industries and countries can be rejected. Differences exist across euro area countries in the degree that a common exchange rate movement gets transmitted into consumer prices and costs of production indices. Most of these differences in transmission rates are due to the distinct degree of openness of each country to non-euro area imports rather than to the heterogeneity in the structure of imports. 相似文献
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Port choice and freight forwarders 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Jose L. Tongzon 《Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review》2009,45(1):186-195
In light of the growing supply chain power of 3PLs and very limited empirical studies on port choice from the freight forwarders’ perspective, this paper tries to evaluate the major factors influencing port choice from the Southeast Asian freight forwarders’ perspective, their decision-making style and port selection process and draw out some policy implications for port operators and authorities. Efficiency is found to be the most important factor followed by shipping frequency, adequate infrastructure and location. Their selection process is complex and a two-stage process and supports the new approach that models ports within the framework of a supply chain. 相似文献
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Tourism may serve as tool of economic development (ED). The aim of this article is to determine, through the analysis of determining factors identified in previous studies, which are the most important variables in channelling tourism growth into ED. Using a multivariate linear regression model, the main push and brake factors have been identified, for both developed and developing countries. It has been concluded that countries should maintain low initial provisions for CO2 emissions, hospital beds, unemployment, energy without CO2 emissions, and working population. It is also necessary to reduce conflict-related deaths. These results may be crucial in the decision-making processes implemented by policymakers and destination managers, given that they provide extremely useful information for the planning of their actions. 相似文献