Learning before the storm: Modeling multiple stakeholder activities in support of crisis management,a practical case

The severe consequences of a Critical Infrastructure (CI) crisis demand continued research directed toward proactive and reactive management strategies. Despite the best efforts of governments and communities, the diversity of stakeholders, conflicting demands for resources, and a lack of trust among organizations create complexities that limit the effectiveness of the response. This paper identifies four specific problems that appear to reoccur when CIs are challenged: heterogeneity, multiple and inconsistent boundaries, resilience building and knowledge transfer and sharing. A combination of collaborative modeling and software simulation methodologies is proposed in order to identify the interrelationships among diverse stakeholders when managing the preparation for and reaction to a CI crisis. This approach allows experts to work together and share experiences through the modeling process which can lead them to a better understanding of how other organizations work and integrate different perspectives. In addition, simulation models enable domain experts to understand the consequences of certain policies in the short and long terms, thus improving the crisis managers' knowledge for future crisis situations. This paper presents a practical case of a hypothetical crisis in the CI sector and the approach used in order to deal with the four problems identified above.     

On the performance of the Chow-Lin procedure for quarterly interpolation of annual data: Some Monte-Carlo analysis

Most of the countries of the OECD offer quarterly estimates of their national growth or of their Gross National Product. Official Statistical Agencies in western countries have to deal with the problem of estimating Quarterly National Accounts series congruently with Annual National Accounts. In Spain, the Instituto Nacional de Estadística uses the Chow-Lin disaggregation method, which is based on information provided by a group of high-frequency related variables, to estimate the quarterly components of National Accounts from annual components. In this paper, we analyse the relative quality of the estimates obtained through the Chow-Lin procedure, under different sets of hypotheses.JEL Classification: C15, C43, M40We are grateful to Maria Amparo Ripoll for her assistance. The authors also wish to thank three anonymous referees and an editor for their constructive suggestions and comments. This research was partially made during the stay of the first author at the Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. It has been partially supported by the research project DGCYT PB98-1460.     

New R&D management paradigms: rethinking research and technology organizations strategies in regions

The R&D management paradigms of research and technology organizations (RTOs) have been discussed in the past. Academics have analysed their strategic challenges in view of the new demands posed by new competitive environments for their SME clients. New innovation models proposed recently have captured the attention of policy makers. The objectives of this paper are to analyse these models in the case of a particular model of RTO: the R&D units in the Basque Country in Spain, launched with the aim of improving R&D and technology transfer efficiency. This paper is based on an empirical study of a group of specialized RTOs (R&D units) and its objective is to analyse a new paradigm of RTO and propose a model to identify the critical elements that influence performance and strategic alignment between R&D performers (RTOs) and their partners (in most cases SMEs).     

The exchange rate cycle in Argentina

This article discusses the secular volatility of output, inflation, the exchange rate, and poverty in Argentina. Inflation, currency devaluation and a wide gross domestic product (GDP) cycle have been recurrent problems in Argentina for several decades. The literature has extensively discussed those issues from different viewpoints. This study focuses on a relatively unexplored theme that may contribute to a partial explanation. It deals with the continuous tendency to equalize different profitabilities resulting, in turn, from remarkably different sectoral purchasing power parities. Thus, for any given exchange rate, an incessant tendency toward the equalization of profitabilities generates opposing inflationary and devaluatory pressures. The resulting inflation-devaluation cycle feeds income redistribution, GDP fluctuation, real exchange rate instability, and high levels of uncertainty.     

Evaluating the efficiency of municipalities in the presence of unobserved heterogeneity

Journal of Productivity Analysis - The paper applies some of the latest advances of probabilistic approach to account directly for unobserved heterogeneity in the estimation of efficiency measures...     

Collective bargaining under perfect information. The negotiation of national agreements

We structurally estimate a perfect information bargaining model of collective negotiations using data on national agreements for Spain. The model is a stochastic model of sequential bargaining in which we allow for the possibility of negotiations ending without agreement, a common feature in the data. Delays in equilibrium are the result of uncertainty about the surplus to be divided among the players and not of information asymmetries. The model fits the data well regardless of the limitations imposed by the parametric specification adopted. Our results show that agents are patient and that the advantage from proposing is large.JEL Classification: J50, C73, C78We thank Fabian Marquez, Sergio Santillan and Jose Maria Zufiaur for helping us to create the data base on Spanish National Agreements. We also thank Cesar Alonso, Juanjo Dolado, Gautam Gowrisankaran, Maia Guell, Antonio Merlo and participants at the 1999 European Meeting of the Econometric Society for very helpful comments. Jose E. Galdon thanks financial support from the following institutions: European Commission for a TMR Marie Curie Fellowship, Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnologia for project BEC2002-00954 and Spanish Ministerio de Educacion, Cultura y Deporte for project PR2004-0057. He also thanks the hospitality of STICERD (LSE) and the IR Section (Princeton University) where part of this work was completed. The usual disclaimers apply.     

HETEROGENEITY IN WILLINGNESS‐TO‐PAY FOR THEATRE PRODUCTIONS: INDIVIDUAL SPECIFIC WILLINGNESS‐TO‐PAY ESTIMATES FOR THEATRES,SHOWS AND THEIR ATTRIBUTES

This paper investigates people's preferences for live theatre, and heterogeneity in willingness‐to‐pay (WTP). A stated preference discrete choice model estimates utility and WTP for different attributes of theatre productions. Previous studies assumed fixed coefficients across all theatre‐goers. This study allows coefficients of attributes to vary across individuals in the population, providing information on the heterogeneity of tastes. Theatre‐goers' choices are used to estimate individual‐based parameters for a person's tastes in theatre productions. The analysis reveals the heterogeneity of tastes for different types of plays and ticket price; and the significance of ‘reviews’ by critics and ‘word of mouth’ opinions as important variables determining choice.     

The ASEAN–Korea Trade In Services (AKTIS) Agreement: Its Impact on Indonesia and Other ASEAN Countries

To strengthen trade in services between ASEAN and Korea, in 2009 both sides signed and implemented the ASEAN–Korea Trade in Services (AKTIS) agreement. This article is the first to assess the trade implications of this agreement for Indonesia and other ASEAN countries. Despite the increasing volume of ASEAN–Korea trade in services since 2009, it is hard to say whether AKTIS was the only factor behind this encouraging growth. The agreement’s potential trade impact is, however, quite substantial. Given the importance of enhancing further trade in services between the ASEAN countries and Korea, we propose a number of specific liberalisation measures that Indonesia and other ASEAN countries could take to further strengthen such trade with their Asian neighbour.     

Bank lending channel of monetary policy： Evidence for Colombia,using a firms＇ panel data

In this paper we find empirical evidence of bank lending channel for Colombia, using a balanced panel data of about four thousand non-financial firms. We find that increases in the interest rate, proxiing for the monetary policy instrument, lead to a reduction in the proportion of bank loans, out of total debt, of the firms. This bank lending channel amplifies the effect of the traditional interest rate channel, which leads to a reduction in total debt and spending when monetary policy tightens. Our evidence suggests that firm size matters in the transmission of monetary policy through the bank lending channel： Smaller firms have a higher probability of being credit rationed after a tightening of monetary policy than （otherwise identical） larger firms.