Robust Actuarial Risk Analysis

This article investigates techniques for the assessment of model error in the context of insurance risk analysis. The methodology is based on finding robust estimates for actuarial quantities of interest, which are obtained by solving optimization problems over the unknown probabilistic models, with constraints capturing potential nonparametric misspecification of the true model. We demonstrate the solution techniques and the interpretations of these optimization problems, and illustrate several examples, including calculating loss probabilities and conditional value-at-risk.     

Prospects for a Monetary Union in the East Africa Community: Some Empirical Evidence

This paper examines generalised purchasing power parity (G-PPP) and business cycle synchronisation in the East Africa Community with the aim of assessing the prospects for a monetary union. The univariate fractional integration analysis shows that the individual series exhibit unit roots and are highly persistent. The fractional bivariate cointegration tests suggest that there exist bivariate fractional cointegrating relationships between the exchange rate of the Tanzanian shilling and those of the other EAC countries, and also between the exchange rates of the Rwandan franc, the Burundian franc and the Ugandan shilling. The Fractionally Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive (FCVAR) results imply the existence of a single cointegrating relationship between the exchange rates of the EAC countries. On the whole, there is evidence in favour of G-PPP. In addition, there appears to be a high degree of business cycle synchronisation between these economies. On both grounds, one can argue that a monetary union should be feasible.     

Long Memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates

In this article we have examined the unemployment rate series in Turkey by using long memory models and in particular employing fractionally integrated techniques. Our results suggest that unemployment in Turkey is highly persistent, with orders of integration equal to or higher than 1 in the majority of the cases. This implies lack of mean reversion and persistence of the shocks. We found evidence in favor of mean reversion in the case of female unemployment and this happens for all the groups of non-agricultural, rural, urban, and youth unemployment series. The possibility of nonlinearities are observed only in the case of female unemployment and the degree of persistence is higher in the cases of female and youth unemployment series. Important policy implications emerge from our empirical results. Thus, for example, positive shocks reducing unemployment will have permanent effects being good for the economy, but negative shocks increasing unemployment will also have permanent effects and strong measures should then be adopted to reduce it. Labor and macroeconomic policies will most likely have long-lasting effects on the unemployment rates.     

The opportunity to improve psychological competences of project managers in international businesses

Many projects are currently conducted in international businesses in which cultural issues play an important role. In‐depth analysis of the risks associated with the unknown of this type of issues offers companies a better understanding of how to focus their marketing tools to be more effective, and provides project managers with strategies to improve customer relationships. Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions and Meyer's Culture Map have demonstrated that every society possesses distinguishing features. These cultural theories serve as foundation for including the category of culture in a proposed Cultural Risk Breakdown Structure. Through a literature review, risks associated with cultural differences are identified in projects executed in Africa, China, and the Middle East. By linking these risks to cultural dimensions, it is possible to identify the psychological competences framework in international businesses. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to create not only a comprehensive record of these risks but also a list of the new skills and competences that project managers must possess to improve client satisfaction and make decisions in a cross‐cultural environment. By considering the association between psychological aspects and cultural issues, this analysis will be of considerable benefit for improving relationships in international contexts.     

Design for the environment: An ontology-based knowledge management model for green product development

Through appropriate operations and policies, such as green processes and product development process (PDP), companies can respond to environmental sustainability. To remain competitive, one such approach, Design for X (DFX), involves considering different environment and sustainable strategies through different factors Xs. With regard to the availability of different DFX techniques that consider environmental issues, the decision as to which approach needs to be adopted remains absent. This paper aims at presenting an overview from 1980 to 2020 of the developed research, applications, and DFX techniques for assessing green issues. Selected DFX techniques are linked with strategies used in organizations. Following a literature analysis, a collaborative knowledge-based framework that addresses the design concepts needed to assess environmental, safety, and health concerns in the development of green products is proposed. Furthermore, as a pillar for considering the Semantic Web and an evolving approach linked with natural language processing (NLP) and artificial intelligence (AI), an ontology-based knowledge management model for green assessment is developed for the representation, acquisition, organization, and capitalization of knowledge in a computer interpretable manner. The findings are useful for both managers and practitioners as they provide a coherent domain ontology that can help them manage knowledge, improve teamwork, and make decisions in a collaborative green PDP. Besides, an understanding of the essential design considerations that are required to implement environmental, safety, and health issues, as well as competencies used in the PDP is presented. Key barriers, managerial and strategic implications, and mitigation actions are also identified in this paper.     

Main difficulties during RFID implementation: an exploratory factor analysis approach

RFID (Radio Frequency Identification) systems are meant to increase accuracy and velocity in objects identification, supporting Industry 4.0. However, there are challenges that need to be faced. This paper aims to identify and analyse the main difficulties regarding RFID systems implementation. We combined both systematic literature review and survey methods with ninety RFID experts. Data was analysed through Exploratory Factor Analysis. Empirical evidences have led to three main factors explaining most of the variance: operational difficulties, planning difficulties and employee difficulties. This corroborates the literature with recent data sets and provides quantitative analysis for prioritisation during RFID implementation. Professionals can use these research results as a guide to RFID systems implementation to create preventive actions during implementation initiatives. In the context of the Internet of Things and Fourth Industrial Revolution, RFID is considered an emerging topic nowadays, but no similar studies exist in the scientific literature.     

Further econometric evidence on the extent and sources of cost savings in competitively tendered contracts

Empirical Economics - By estimating a flexible nonlinear regression model of savings on an original dataset of service procurements conducted by the Spanish Armed Forces, this paper provides robust...     

Gibrat's law test on Brazilian commercial banks

In recent years, Brazil has been one of the countries with the biggest changes in the banking sector. The process of deregulation that began in 2002 has entailed the increase of the presence of foreign banking and the increase of competition, among other aspects. In this context, the objective of this study consists in contrasting Gibrat's Law in the Brazilian commercial banking during the period of 2002–2013 with the objective of contributing with evidence for the construction of a growth model for banking that will guide the financial policy of the country. For this, the quartile regression methodology is utilized, since we consider that it analyzes the relation between growth and the size of the entities more thoroughly than the empirical contrasts given by previous empirical evidence. The results obtained indicate that there is a non-linear relation in an inverted U form between growth and size in the Brazilian commercial banking. These results allow us to affirm that the relative dispersion of the sizes of the financial entities will tend to decrease in time and with this, the concentration of the sector.