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231.
We analyze the link between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics in two new and two potential EU member states: Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Turkey. Given the different institutional settings of the exchange rate market in the countries of interest, we follow two different modelling strategies. For Romania and Turkey, we evaluate possible exchange rate misalignments based on a monetary model of exchange rate determination. In the case of Bulgaria and Croatia, with currency board and narrow-band peg arrangements against the euro, we discuss possible exit strategies and quantitatively assess the effects of the peg arrangements by means of simulation.
Maria Antoinette SilgonerEmail:
  相似文献   
232.
    
I analyze how sickness‐absence behavior in Norwegian municipalities was affected by exposure to the terrorist attack in Norway in 2011. The main finding is that in municipalities from which a resident was killed in the attack, sickness absence declined by 4 percent compared with municipalities without victims. The effect is precise, stable, and persistent. The results do not seem to be driven by changing labor market composition. The effect is found also in neighboring municipalities and is larger for people close to the age of the victims.  相似文献   
233.
We have decomposed the peseta/dollar real exchange rate (1870–1998) into its trend and cyclical components and used the former to proxy its time-varying equilibrium. Then, we have compared changes in the equilibrium with changes in the Spanish and the USA productivity differentials to identify years that do not fit with the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson (HBS) hypothesis. The greatest maladjustment is found in the 1940s and 1950s, decades of strong exchange rate intervention in Spain. Conversely, the link between equilibrium and differentials adjusts to the hypothesis when using the non-intervened peseta/dollar exchange rate on the Tangier black market. These contrasting results back up the idea that exchange rate intervention, so common in developing countries, might explain their scanter evidence in favour of the HBS effect.  相似文献   
234.
The persistent uncertainty that looms over the search for solutions to health problems offers important conceptual insights for the study of technological change. This paper explores the notion of hybridization, namely the embodiment of multiple competing operational principles within a single medical device, as strategy to deal with the practical shortcomings due to said uncertainty. The history of the development of the hybrid artificial disc affords the elaboration of an alternative view of hybridization and, at the same time, the articulation of a dualism between medical science as area of basic research (e.g. what disease is) and as practical knowledge (e.g. how disease can be tackled).  相似文献   
235.
    
We analyze the formation of public good agreements under the weakest‐link technology. Whereas policy coordination is not necessary for symmetric players, it matters for asymmetric players; however, this fails in the absence of transfers. By contrast, with a transfer scheme, asymmetry may be an asset for cooperation. We characterize various types and degrees of asymmetry and relate them to the stability of self‐enforcing agreements. Asymmetric distributions of autarky public good provision levels (also representing asymmetric interests in cooperation) that are positively skewed tend to be conducive to the stability of agreements. We show that under such conditions, even a coalition including all players can be stable. However, asymmetries that foster stability (instability) tend to be associated with low (high) gains from cooperation.  相似文献   
236.
Previous studies have highlighted the question of government loan interest as one of great current importance. Government borrowing levels are high, and reducing interest payments would generate savings to meet other spending needs and/or to lower taxation, thus supporting the sustainability of public finances. However, no previous study has presented a method for a local government to calculate its own credit risk and thus be in a position to negotiate lower interest rates on its borrowing. This article defines a financial model that enables local governments to estimate the interest rate payable on a bank loan, based on their credit risk premium, in accordance with the Basel II rules and the findings of our empirical study of large local governments.  相似文献   
237.
This paper analyses energy relations concerning natural gas between Lithuania and Russia. Contrary to the existing literature, which stresses Lithuanian energy dependence, this paper argues that there had been interdependence between the two countries even before Lithuania underwent diversification at the end of 2014. The paper develops an analytical framework that examines: (a) physical energy relations, (b) the dominance of the energy agenda in mutual relations, and (c) the influence of the European Union. The analysis shows that while Lithuania was dependent on Russian supplies of natural gas, Russia was also dependent on Lithuania as a transit country of gas to Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave. Although Russia has shown a much higher willingness to employ an energy weapon than Lithuania, its efforts to exercise pressure on Lithuania have been negatively affected by the Baltic state’s position as a transit country. The European Union has played a crucial role as its pre-accession requirements and internal energy market rules have significantly influenced the energy relationship between the two countries.  相似文献   
238.
    
ABSTRACT

This study examines gender diversity on boards of directors in a sample of nonfinancial Spanish small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for 2003–8, finding that the probability of women on the board increases with firm performance, defined as return on assets, and family ownership, but diminishes with corporate ownership and firm risk. It also finds, when examining the full sample, a positive effect of the presence of women board members on firm performance. The study also obtains a similar positive effect in most subsamples, including in firms with corporate ownership, where family connections play less role in the election of board members, and in firms in the secondary and tertiary sectors, which are characterized by having greater proximity to final consumers than those in the primary sector.  相似文献   
239.
    
One of the methods of studying complex objects is the construction of a mathematical model, containing such information about the object that is necessary to solve a definite problem connected with it.Mathematical modeling, based on the construction of models of various kinds can be used in forecasting. Let a forecasting object A(X) be described by vector X = (X1, X2,…,Xn) whose coordinates are parameters characterizing this object. The work presents a probabilistic model of forecasting and gives the example of a forecast of the object described by a set two parameters.  相似文献   
240.
    
The aim of this article is to test whether the credit market conditions affect the strength of transmission of real estate wealth effects on household consumption in the US economy. Although many different works have dealt with the analysis of the existence of a real estate wealth effect, most of them as a reaction to the dramatic increase of housing prices in several OECD countries, there are only few papers analysing whether the consumption response depends on the positive or negative sign of the wealth shock and, as far as we know, none of them takes the effects of credit market conditions on that asymmetric response into account. This article tries to fill the existing gap in the literature on this matter. From an econometric perspective, we estimate the asymmetries in the consumption response within the momentum threshold autoregressive model (M-TAR) proposed by Enders and Siklos (2001), but following Stevans (2004), it is applied to a multivariate framework. The main results show that the credit market conditions play a significant role in the transmission of changes in real estate wealth to consumption. In addition, we find that there exists an asymmetric behaviour in the US aggregate consumption spending responses to real estate wealth and credit market shocks, which is only significant when a negative shock takes place.  相似文献   
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