The treatment of uncertainty in the application of rational expectations to the analysis of economic policy

This study uses a familiar set of variables to characterize the determinants of training (based around individual characteristics, qualifications, and workplace characteristics). However, it goes further by using data drawn from a recent quarter of the UK Labour Force Survey, and thus contains an up-to-date and extensive set of core variables. The dependent variable used covers three subgroups: those who have never been offered training by their current employer; those who have been offered but did not receive training in the last three months; and those workers who received training within the last three months. The hypothesis that large employers not only provide more work-related training, but that they are also more willing to train workers with characteristics that indicate a lower probability of obtaining a return on any investment outlay, is tested. This was confirmed (especially for male workers), along with a range of results that mostly accord with previous studies into the determinants of UK employer-based training.     

The demand for mortgage finance in the united kingdom

This paper examines the rationing behaviour of building societies in the United kingdom. Mortgage rationing is defined as the use of non-interest rate terms to allocate available funds and the empirical results indicate that the adjustment of such terms is significant in determining the demand for mortgage finance. In contrast with previous studies, the demand side of the mortgage market is disaggregated between first-time house buyers and existing owner-occupiers.     

Guidelines For Pre-College Economics Education: A Critique

While economists of all persuasions undoubtedly agree that universal economic literacy would be desirable, there appears to be substantial disagreement over what economic literacy is, what problems most need to be addressed, and how they can best be solved. These differences are clearly reflected in their diverse views as to what the goals should be for teaching economics in secondary schools. This paper specifically examines the recommendations offered in a paper on economic content standards by leaders of the economic education movement in the U.S. and finds them seriously wanting.     

Catch-up strategies and the latecomer effect in industrial development

Since 2003, the West and Central African (WCA) cotton initiative in the World Trade Organization has stood as an ambitious case of Africa's desire to be integrated into the trading system and yet also receive reparations for past injuries. This article seeks to explore how and why the initiative debuted through close attention to the interdependence between power and language in diplomatic practice. It takes the concept of cognitive framing to explore the relationship between political legitimacy and mobilisation capacities. The genesis of cotton as ‘an issue’ is critically examined, focusing on how the WCA countries constructed a novel ‘competitive victim’ frame to define themselves and the problem. While this opening move was effective, it also featured tensions that were exploited by Northern actors who were threatened by the campaign. I argue that what followed was the introduction of a politically driven ‘counterframe’, which divided the problem into a ‘trade-related’ component and a ‘development-related’ component. It is important to understand why and how this distinction was constructed and monitored. By scrutinising the relationship between framing and institutional power, I suggest that the counterframe won over the original frame, leading to a re-positioning of the demanders and a re-calibration of their expectations.     

An economic evaluation attached to a single-centre,parallel group,unmasked, randomized controlled trial of a 3-day intensive social cognitive treatment (can do treatment) in patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis and low disability

Abstract

Aims: This trial-based economic evaluation (EE) assesses from a societal perspective the cost-effectiveness of an intensive 3-day cognitive theory-based intervention (CDT), compared to care-as-usual, in patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) and low disability (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDDS] score < 4.0).

Materials and methods: The trial of the EE was registered in the Dutch Trial Register: Trial NL5158 (NTR5298). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was expressed in cost on the Control sub-scale of the Multiple Sclerosis Self-Efficacy Scale (MSSES) and the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) in the cost per Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) using the EQ-5D-5L. Bootstrap, sensitivity, and sub-group analyses were performed to determine the robustness of the findings.

Results: The two groups of 79 patients were similar in baseline characteristics. The base case ICER is situated in the northeast quadrant (€72 (40.74/€2,948)) due to a higher MSSES Control score and higher societal costs in the CDT group. The ICUR is situated in the northwest (inferior) quadrant due to losses in QALY and higher societal costs for the CDT group (?0.02/€2,948). Overall, bootstrap, sensitivity, and sub-group analyses confirm the base case findings. However, when the SF-6D is used as a study outcome, there is a high probability that the ICUR is situated in the northeast quadrant.

Limitations: The relative short follow-up time (6?months) and the unexpected increase in MSSES Control in the control group.

Conclusions: When using the EQ-5D-5L to calculate a QALY, CDT is not a cost-effective alternative in comparison to care as usual. However, when using self-efficacy or SF-6D as outcomes, there is a probability that CDT is cost-effective. Based on the current results, CDT for patients with RRMS clearly show its potential. However, an extended follow-up for the economic evaluation is warranted before a final decision on implementation can be made.     

Use of insertable cardiac monitors for the detection of atrial fibrillation in patients with cryptogenic stroke in the United States is cost-effective

Abstract

Objectives: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia and a major marker of ischemic stroke risk. Early detection is crucial and, once diagnosed, anticoagulation therapy can be initiated to reduce stroke risk. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of employing an insertable cardiac monitor (ICM), BIOMONITOR, for the detection of AF compared to standard of care (SoC) ECG and Holter monitoring in patients with cryptogenic stroke, that is, stroke of unknown origin and where paroxysmal, silent AF is suspected.

Materials and methods: A Markov model was developed which consisted of five main health states reflecting the potential lifetime evolution of the AF disease: post cryptogenic stroke (index event), subsequent mild, moderate and severe stroke, and death. Sub-states were included to track a patient’s AF diagnostic status and the use of antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy. AF detection was assumed to result in a treatment switch from aspirin to anticoagulants, except among those with a history of major bleeding. Detection yield and accuracy, clinical actions and treatment effects were derived from the literature and validated by an expert clinician. All relevant costs from a US Medicare perspective were included.

Results and conclusions: An ICM-based strategy was associated with a reduction of 37 secondary ischemic strokes per 1000 patients monitored compared with SoC. Total per-patient costs with an ICM were higher (US$90,052 vs. US$85,157) although stroke-related costs were reduced. The use of an ICM was associated with a base-case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$18,487 per life year gained compared with SoC and US$25,098 per quality-adjusted life year gained, below established willingness-to-pay thresholds. The conclusions were found to be robust over a range of input values. From a US Medicare perspective the use of a BIOMONITOR ICM represents a cost-effective diagnostic strategy for patients with cryptogenic stroke and suspected AF.     

The Political Economy of Argentina's Debacle

In this paper I argue that political economy considerations and, in particular, the identity of the reformers, are central to understanding the Argentine crisis that culminated in sovereign default in January 2002. During the 1990s, the main political parties remained attached to populism, and no strong party emerged at the center of the political spectrum. This had two effects in the reform process. First, it severely deteriorated it (efficiency, corruption), reducing the support of the population. Second, when a series of shocks hit the economy the anti‐reform camp tried to undo most reforms, and thus convey a message to the population about the “right” model of the world.     

Estimation of the Natural Unemployment Rate in the Russian Federation, 1994–2004

To specify the problem of unemployment in Russia, we estimate the natural rate of unemployment by consecutively estimating the optimal size of the labour force and the optimal employment. For estimation of the optimal values we used a modified Hodrick–Prescott filter technique. The results show that the natural rate of unemployment in Russia during 1994–97 was stable around 13–13.5% and decreased to 7.1% by mid-2004. Moreover, before 1998 the actual unemployment was significantly lower than the natural rate and today practically equals it.     

International law as a moral theory of state territory?

Current states face challenges from other states and secessionist movements, and no moral theory exists to evaluate these conflicting claims. One step towards a theory is to evaluate international law on territory, specifically as articulated through decolonisation. I argue that international law does not provide a plausible moral theory of territory because the principles of territorial integrity and uti possidetis cannot coherently coexist with the principle of self‐determination. I suggest that philosophers must choose between viewing territory as an expression of national self or as a property right, or else develop a third view from sources beyond current international law.