The Nonstationarity of Money and Prices in Interdependent Economies

In most nations, paths of monetary aggregates and prices consistently depart from stationary trends. This paper shows that this is a fundamental implication when monetary authorities of interdependent countries seek to smooth their home output and prices in the presence of incomplete world output-market integration and structural asymmetries. Using a two-country model with interdependent output supply schedules, we show that this conclusion holds whether the exchange rate floats or is fixed. It also holds if monetary policies are coordinated. Therefore, optimal monetary policy choices by central banks yield stationary paths for money and prices only under very specific conditions.     

Impacts of monetary and macroeconomic factors on food prices in eastern and southern Africa

Eastern and southern Africa has been experiencing relatively large increases in real food prices since the early 1980s. Real food prices in some African countries grew as much as 11% per year during the 1980-1996 period. The huge volatility in food prices coincided with the implementation of structural adjustment programmes in several African countries. This study examines the impacts of monetary and macroeconomic factors on real food prices in eastern and southern Africa. Using the technique of cointegration and error correction modelling to test the long-run relationship between real food prices and the factors that influence their behaviour in selected African countries. Demand elasticities for food are estimated for selected countries. The empirical results show that changes in domestic food production, coupled with income, trade, exchange rate and monetary policies have significant impacts on real food prices, with wide implications for food availability and food security in the region.     

THE TIME‐SERIES PROPERTIES OF UK INFLATION: EVIDENCE FROM AGGREGATE AND DISAGGREGATE DATA

This paper contrasts the time‐series properties of aggregate and disaggregate UK inflation. While aggregate inflation is found to be non‐stationary, unit root rejection frequencies are increasing when we use more disaggregate data. Structural break analysis suggests that structural shifts in monetary policy could alter inflation persistence. Additionally, panel evidence indicates that the unit root hypothesis can be rejected for sectoral inflation rates. Finally, we compare the persistence properties of UK inflation, finding statistically significant differences between aggregate and disaggregate series. Our analysis suggests that aggregation matters, which has important implications for econometric analysis and the conduct of monetary policy.     

Construction of an economic index to measure the causes of economic insecurity

This paper is an updated study on the causes of economic insecurity in the United States. The authors have constructed an aggregate composite index that measures objectively the major causes of economic insecurity (CEI) in the United States. The CEI index consists of 11 variables that can cause economic insecurity. The time period under investigation is 1960 through 2001. A rising CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity in the United States have increased in relative importance, which results in an increase in economic insecurity. Conversely, a falling CEI index indicates that the causes of economic insecurity have declined in relative importance, which results in a reduction of economic insecurity. However, despite substantial economic growth in the American economy from 1960 through 2001, the CEI index overall showed little improvement. The major conclusion is that the CEI index was 9 percent higher in 2001 than it was in 1960. This result was due largely to the increase in divorce, violent crime, rising out-of-pocket expenditures for health care, inflation, and unemployment. The results for subperiods are dramatically different, and we think more interesting, than the overall results. During the 1960s, there was a small decline in the CEI index. The 1970s showed a dramatic increase in the CEI index, which reflected both high unemployment rates and inflation rates during this period. The 1980s experienced fluctuating levels in the index but little overall change, and the 1990s experienced a sharp decline in the CEI index due largely to a robust economy. The CEI index has increased more recently, which reflects largely the recent 2001 business recession. The correlation coefficient of the CEI index with the University of Michigan's well-known Index of Consumer Sentiment is ?676. This figure shows that as the CEI index rises, consumer sentiment about the American economy becomes pessimistic and negative.     

Policy Assignments for Central Bank Activities

This paper contrasts different policy assignments for central bank operations. Two types of asset market transactions (domestic, foreign) and two policy targets (interest rate, exchange rate) are examined within a portfolio-balance model. It is demonstrated that assigning domestic asset transactions to the internal target, and foreign asset transactions to the external target, produces stable policy paths, while the opposite assignment does not. [310]     

Immigrant earnings: age at immigration matters

A correlation between age at immigration and earnings is observed in Canadian census data. The evidence supports three underlying sources of the effect; first, work experience in the source country yields virtually no return in the host country; second, the return to education varies with age at immigration, and, finally, an 'acculturation' effect is observed for immigrants who are visible minorities or whose mother tongue is not English. Further, it is found that educational attainment, and relatedly earnings, vary systematically across age at immigration with those arriving around age 15 to 18 obtaining fewer years of education. JEL Classification: J61, J31