数据挖掘技术在证券业营销策略分析系统中的应用

我国证券市场的建立与发展,取得了举世瞩目的成就.随着"以客户为中心"的经营理念的不断深入人心,分析客户、了解客户并引导客户的需求已成为企业经营的重要课题.本文针对当前我国证券行业的背景进行了深入的分析,着重从证券行业营销策略中应解决的关键业务及关键问题入手,充分利用数据挖掘技术等先进技术对当前证券行业营销策略分析提出了行之有效的系统解决方案.     

中国区域经济增长差异及影响因素分析

随着中国经济的高速增长,区域经济差异日益突出。此项研究通过对地区经济差异的统计描述,并运用经济计量模型,在传统的资本要素和劳动力要素的基础上,增加了技术要素和制度要素两个变量来考察区域经济增长的差异,得出了结论和启示。     

促进地震灾后企业重建的制度安排

汶川特大地震灾害过后,百废待兴,重建家园必将产生新的投资和新的消费需求,这在客观上为企业的重建提供了巨大的发展动力。汶川地震灾区的灾后重建是一个复杂而艰巨的系统工程,其中,灾区企业的恢复与重建将是决定灾区经济彻底恢复的关键所在。灾后企业恢复与重建工作要有科学的规划,同时更要借鉴国外发达国家灾后企业重建经验和我国地震灾区实际,对促进企业恢复重建提供必要的制度保障。对此,要通过卓有成效的财税激励政策,使受灾企业尽快恢复生机与活力;要通过新的金融政策制度安排,为受灾企业的恢复与重建提供支持;要通过切实可行的地权制度设计,为受灾企业的恢复与重建开辟用地绿色通道。     

Multiplicity in general financial equilibrium with portfolio constraints

This paper explores the role of portfolio constraints in generating multiplicity of equilibrium. We present a simple financial market economy with two goods and two households, households who face constraints on their ability to take unbounded positions in risky stocks. Absent such constraints, equilibrium allocation is unique and is Pareto efficient. With one portfolio constraint in place, the efficient equilibrium is still possible; however, additional inefficient equilibria in which the constraint is binding may emerge. We show further that with portfolio constraints cum incomplete markets, there may be a continuum of equilibria; adding incomplete markets may lead to real indeterminacy.     

Does a “survival-by-exporting” effect for SMEs exist?

The trade literature has long discussed the existence of some benefits attributed to exporting (learning-by-exporting), among others, the improvement in survival chances. This paper examines whether exporting SMEs enjoy better survival prospects than non-exporting SMEs. We investigate the determinants of survival of exporting and non-exporting SMEs and explore whether the exporting behaviour plays a significant role in explaining their probability of exit. For this purpose, we estimate discrete time proportional hazard models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity. The dataset is a sample of Spanish manufacturing SMEs drawn from the Encuesta sobre Estrategias Empresariales (ESEE) for 1990–2002. After controlling for firm, industry and economy characteristics, we find evidence supporting the existence of a sizeable “surviving-by-exporting” effect. That is, exporting SMEs face a significantly lower probability of failure than non-exporters.     

Patents,R&;D and lag effects: evidence from flexible methods for count panel data on manufacturing firms

This paper investigates the relationship between patents and research and development expenditures using new longitudinal patent data at the firm level for the U.S. manufacturing sector from 1982 to 1992. The paper also develops a new class of count panel data models based on series expansion of the distribution of individual effects. Estimation results from various distributed lag and dynamic multiplicative panel count data models show that the contemporaneous relationship between patenting and R&D expenditures continues to be strong, accounting for over 60% of the total R&D elasticity. The lag effects are higher than have previously been found for the 1970s data. We would like to thank Chris Bollinger, Bronwyn Hall and Paula Stephan for useful comments on the previous version of the paper. Earlier versions were presented at the 11th International Conference on Panel Data, Texas A&M University, the Midwest Econometrics Group Meeting, and the Annual Conference of the Southern Economic Association.     

The unanimity rule and religious fractionalisation in the Polish-Lithuanian Republic

This paper analyses the role of the unanimity rule—known as liberum veto—in medieval Poland. We argue that the primary effect of the liberum veto was that it secured religious freedom and established domestic peace in an otherwise deeply divided and fractionalised country. What is more, this institution succeeded in doing so during an era which was characterised by violent religious conflicts and rise of absolutist monarchies throughout the European continent. Even after 1652, when the liberum veto seemed to have practically paralysed the decision-making of Polish-Lithuanian parliament, there were still reasons—related to religious issues—why its use could have been preferable to less inclusive voting rules. It can be argued, however, that the use of unanimity was not warranted in questions related to defence, especially in situations of national emergency, although it is questionable to which extent the sole presence of the liberum veto was susceptible to bring about the demise of the Polish-Lithuanian Republic.

Term structure and the estimated monetary policy rule in the Eurozone

In this paper we estimate a standard version of the New Keynesian Monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure in order to analyze two issues. First, we analyze the effect of introducing an explicit term structure channel in the NKM model on the estimated parameter values of the model, with special emphasis on the interest rate smoothing parameter using data for the Eurozone. Second, we study the ability of the model to reproduce some stylized facts such as highly persistent dynamics, the weak comovement between economic activity and inflation, and the positive, strong comovement between interest rates observed in actual Eurozone data. The Sect. 3 implemented is a classical structural method based on the indirect inference principle. We are grateful to Eduardo Ley, two anonymous referees and seminar participants at the XXXI Simposio de Análisis Económico (Oviedo, Spain) and Bank of Spain for their useful comments. Financial support from Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología and Universidad del País Vasco (Spain) and Fundación Séneca through projects SEJ2004-04811/ECON, 9/UPV00035.321-13511/2001 and I02937/PHCS/05, respectively, is gratefully acknowledged. The first author also thanks Fundación Ramón Areces for financial support.     

Harmonizing conflict in husband–wife purchase decision making: perceived fairness and spousal influence dynamics

To market important products to families successfully, salespeople must understand how couples behave in concert to resolve conflict across major decisions. The authors develop a model of spousal fairness and test it with a study of multi-period family purchase decision making. The results show that a spousal sense of fairness serves as a mechanism for contemporary couples to harmonize conflict over time in family decisions. Specifically, spouses’ perceived fairness mediates the relationship between spousal prior influence and spousal decision behavior in subsequent decisions. Spouses also consider their partner’s perceptions of fairness when taking action to restore fairness. Moreover, the effects of perceived fairness are moderated by spousal traits of empathy, egalitarianism, and empowerment in a gendered pattern.

技术进步与制度变迁关系的理论评述与比较分析

从制度安排角度解释技术进步和经济增长是学者们关注的一个焦点.马克思主义政治经济学从生产力和生产关系角度解释技术进步与制度变迁的辩证关系;而现代西方经济学中新增长理论和新制度经济学对技术进步和制度变迁的关系又各有阐述.对上述理论围绕技术进步和制度变迁关系进行了分析评述,并对两者的理论观点进行了比较分析.