山东省农业发展灰色系统预测

本文依据灰色系统理论建立了山东省农业的GM（1，1）模型并进行了预测，分析了山东省农业的发展态势，提出了保证农业持续和稳定发展的措施。     

Ethical aspects of an urban catastrophe

As a consequence of the collapse of a building in Barcelona, in December 1990, it was discovered that a large number of dwellings, mainly in Barcelona but also in other towns of Catalonia, were affected by a structural defect known as aluminosis, consisting of a deterioration of the reinforced concrete manufactured using aluminous cement, which considerably reduced its strength and that of the steel embedded in the concrete. This brought to light a series of economic, social, political and also moral problems, such as the use of the aluminous cement itself — a quality product but which requires careful handling —, the lack of regulation concerning the product and its use in construction, the poor state of repair of the buildings affected, the careless manner in which they had been built, the lag in technical knowledge, the financial situation of the people affected by the aluminosis, etc.This document provides a full account of the events and their historical, technical, economic and legal background, paying particular attention to the ethical problems created by the situation.Antonio Argandoña is Professor at IESE, the International Graduate School of Management of the University of Navarra in Barcelona (Spain), where he teaches Economics and Business Ethics. He is a member of the Executive Committee of EBEN (European Business Ethics Network), and of the Organizing Committees of the Second (Barcelona, 1989) and Sixth (Oslo, 1993) European Conferences on Business Ethics. He is also co-editor ofPeople in Corporations: Ethical Responsibilities and Corporate Effectiveness (Kluwer, 1990) and author of many articles on business and economics ethics. This article was presented to the Fifth European Conference on Business Ethics (Paris, October 1992).     

Congestion effects in a public-good economy

This paper considers a public-good economy with congestion, where participants jointly produce a public good from input of a private good. This economic model gives rise to a transferable-utility game, the profit game, that depends on consumer preferences and a congestion parameter. The simplicity of the game allows the maximum level of congestion that guarantees the nonemptiness of the core of the economy to be determined. It is known that the sustainability of the Lindahl equilibrium in the core of the economy depends on the distribution of profits. In this paper two distributions of profits are compared: the Lindahl solution and the marginal-contribution solution. The latter is more often in the core than the Lindahl solution which in turn Lorenz-dominates the marginal-contribution solution.     

"突破菏泽"经济发展模式的几点思考

菏泽市，古称曹州。历史上，菏泽因水而穷。建国前，黄河三年两决口，菏泽人民饱受自然灾害之苦，生产条件恶劣，工业几乎空白。建国后到改革开放前，菏泽处于吃粮靠统销、生产靠贷款、生活靠救济的“三靠”状态。长期恶劣的生存环境使不少菏泽百姓逐渐形成了不敢积累、不愿意积累、无意识积累的生活习惯。从1992年到2002年的10年间，菏泽市GDP年均增长6．8％，比全省平均水平低6个百分点，菏泽市累计实际利用外资仅占全省累计实际利用外资的1％，累计出口总值仅占全省累计出口总值的0．5％。2003年菏泽市人均GDP3337元，仅为全省平均水平的25％。1992年菏泽GDP同德州、聊城、滨州经济实力大体相当，现在差距却越来越大，从这些数字中折射出一个严峻的现实：菏泽何去何从？     

试析保险欺诈

保险欺诈是保险公司面临的一项难题。保险欺诈的形式有订立保险合同时的欺诈和保险索赔时的欺诈。保险欺诈的产生有其本质根源、社会根源、心理根源和保险业的内部根源。寻找有效的防范保险欺诈的方法需要从加大保险宣传、充分利用法律武器及提高保险公司的承保和理赔管理水平各方面入手。     

论个人资信评估体系的构建主体

结合其他国家建立信用体系的经验及我国进行信征集试点城市的现状来分析以政府牵头为主，金融机构先行为主及第三方自发为主的三个构建主体方案的利弊，最终得出一个适合中国国情的、合理的、高效的个人资信体系构建主体。     

Frictions, Heterogeneity and Optimality in Mortgage Modeling

The purpose of this article is to provide a unified framework for incorporating frictions into a theoretical options-pricing model (OPM) for mortgages. This article presents formulation for a frictions-adjustable mortgage model that integrates borrower heterogeneity while simultaneously preserving prepayment and default financial decisions. Our model demonstrates the flexibility of the OPM by simulating separate and concurrent effects of three categories of frictions on the mortgage and mortgage components. Researchers can use our example formulation to determine the effects of specific borrower characteristics on mortgage values without destroying the options theoretic framework.     

THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL RELATIONSHIPS IN THE HISTORY OF AMERICAN CORPORATE FINANCE

The American corporate financing system, unlike that of most other countries, has not been organized around a set of “universal banks” that perform a variety of functions for their clients. Indeed, the distinguishing feature of American financial history is the number and variety of financial intermediaries, and their relationships with corporations (and one another). Besides commercial banks, there are investment banks, insurance companies, venture capitalists, commercial paper dealers, mutual funds, and many others. The economic role of such intermediaries is to reduce market frictions such as “asymmetric information” and “agency problems” that otherwise raise the cost of outside capital for U.S. companies. This article views the changing menu of such intermediaries and their networks as the driving force behind the evolution of American corporate finance. U.S. financial history is seen as a series of institutional and financial innovations designed in large part to work around costly restrictions on relationships–particularly, limits on the scale and scope of U.S. banks–that do not exist in most other countries. In terms of its success in reducing the information and control costs of corporate finance, the history of the American financial system includes periods of significant progress as well as major reversals. Three relatively successful periods– the early 19th-century in New England, the “incipient” universal banking of the 1920s, and modernday financial capitalism–are separated by periods of drastic reductions in the menu of financial relationships– particularly the Great Depression and its 20-year aftermath. Besides new financial claims like preferred stock and new intermediaries such as venture capitalists, another important innovation is new forms of cooperation among intermediaries– especially among banks, venture capitalists, trusts, pensions, and investment banks–that have enabled the U.S. financial system to provide some of the key advantages of universal banking systems. Some of the largest U.S. commercial banks today can be viewed as positioning themselves to play a central coordinating role in these new coalitions of intermediaries. In so doing, they may become the platform for a distinctively American universal banking system.     

反商业贿赂与政府采购机制的完善

政府采购已成为财政支出的重要组成部分.巨大的利润空间给政府采购带来了商业贿赂的风险.运用成本-收益理论、政府规制俘获理论和公平理论,分析其产生的根源及可能带来的后果,可采取相应措施消除政府采购中商业贿赂因子的现实途径.     

个人教育投资的均衡分析

人力资本投资的关键形式是教育投资。文章认为,个人教育投资的均衡条件是边际成本等于边际收益。因为个人教育投资的边际成本递增,边际收益递减,所以必须采取多种措施刺激个人教育投资的积极性,才能促进我国教育事业的大发展。