Forecasting the macroeconomy with contemporaneous financial market information: Europe and the United States

Using Economic Tracking Portfolios (ETP), I find that it is possible to forecast future values of inflation and changes in industrial production in the United States and three core euro countries - Italy, France and Germany - utilizing only current and past financial market information. The longer the forecasting horizon, the better the forecasts based solely on financial market information compared to results from other methods. Of the countries I analyze, the overall forecasting performance of the tracking portfolios is the best for the U.S., and my method outperforms the forecasting performance of a VAR approach.     

Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity

Recently introduced measures for economic policy uncertainty (EPU), included in the data from 1997 to 2016, have a role in forecasting out-of-sample values for future real economic activity for both the euro area and UK economies. The inclusion of EPU measures, either for the US, the UK or for overall European economies, improves the forecasting ability of models based on standard financial market information, especially for the period before the 2008 global crisis. However, during and after the crisis period, the slope of the yield curve and excess stock market returns improves the out-of-sample forecast performance the most compared to an AR-benchmark model. Hence, the EPU information is important in times of normal business cycles, but might contain similar information components to financial market return variables during turbulent crisis periods in the financial markets and in the real economy.     

Re-treatment with varenicline is a cost-effective aid for smoking cessation

Objective: One quit attempt with varenicline has been found to be a cost-effective smoking cessation intervention. The purpose of this study was to analyze varenicline’s cost-effectiveness in patients who relapse during or after the first treatment. A comparison was made between re-treatment schema with varenicline and re-treatment schema with bupropion, NRT and unaided cessation, and treatment once with varenicline in a Finnish context.

Methods: The two-quit version of BENESCO Markov model was used to follow a cohort of smokers making up to two quit attempts over a lifetime. The abstinence rates of the interventions were derived from a Cochrane review. Gender- and age-specific data on the incidence and prevalence of five smoking-related diseases were included in the model. Quality-adjusted life-years, total expected costs, and the lifetime cumulative incidence of smoking-related morbidities and mortality were the primary outcomes evaluated.

Results: The study cohort comprised 116,533 smokers who were willing to make a quit attempt. In the lifetime simulation, re-treatment with varenicline yielded 6,150–20,250 extra quitters, depending on the comparator. Among these quitters it was possible to prevent 899–2,972 additional cases of smoking-related diseases, and 395–1,307 deaths attributable to smoking. Re-treatment with varenicline resulted in cost savings of up to 54.9 million Euros. Re-treatment with varenicline dominated all the other smoking cessation interventions used in the analysis. Sensitivity analysis supported the robustness of the base case results.

Limitations: The analysis did not consider adverse events, and included only five major smoking-related diseases, which is a conservative approach, and probably leads to under-estimation of cost-effectiveness of cessation interventions. Furthermore, assumptions of constant relative risks for smoking-related diseases for each smoking status and the proxy values used as efficacy estimates of second quit attempts for other interventions than varenicline are limitations.

Conclusions: A second quitting effort with varenicline is economically justifiable.     

Innovation trends and industrial renewal in Finland and Sweden 1970–2013

We examine trends in innovation output for two highly ranked innovative countries: Finland and Sweden (1970–2013). Our novel dataset, collected using the LBIO (literature-based innovation output) method, suggests that the innovation trends are positive for both countries, despite an extended downturn in the 1980s. The findings cast some doubt on the proposition that the current stagnation of many developed countries is due to a lack of innovation and investment opportunities. Our data show that Finland catches up to, and passes, Sweden in innovation output in the 1990s. In per capita terms, Finland stays ahead throughout the period. We find that the strong Finnish performance is largely driven by innovation increase in just a handfull of sectors, but is not restricted to few companies. Both countries saw a rise in innovation during the dot-com era and the structural changes that followed. Since 2000 however, Sweden has outperformed Finland in terms of total innovations, especially in machinery and ICT, while the Finnish rate of innovation has stabilised. We suggest that these patterns may be explained by different paths of industrial renewal.     

Philanthropy, Integration or Innovation? Exploring the Financial and Societal Outcomes of Different Types of Corporate Responsibility

This article argues that previous research on the outcomes of corporate responsibility should be refined in two ways. First, although there is abundant research that addresses the link between corporate responsibility (CR) and financial performance, hardly any studies scrutinize whether the type of corporate responsibility makes a difference to this link. Second, while the majority of CR research conducted within business studies concentrates on the financial outcomes for the firm, the societal outcomes of CR are left largely unexplored. To tackle these two deficiencies, this article extends the different conceptualizations of corporate responsibility and elaborates both the financial and the societal outcomes of different types of CR.     

International Exploitation of Domestic R&D Exploration: New Insights from Russian Manufacturing Firms

In this paper, we approach R&D cooperation and international market expansion from an exploration-exploitation perspective and look how various domestic R&D partners affect international market expansion activities in Russian firms. Our findings, based on a data survey of 206 manufacturing companies, show that different partners affect differently when it comes to market expansion and that their effect depends on a number of things such as the proximity of the international market. Using the exploration-exploitation approach, we are able to explain the phenomenon in more detail and so contribute to the existing international business and innovation management literature.     

Survey data and Bayesian analysis: a cost-efficient way to estimate customer equity

We present a Bayesian framework for estimating the customer lifetime value (CLV) and the customer equity (CE) based on the purchasing behavior deducible from the market surveys on customer purchasing behavior. The proposed framework systematically addresses the challenges faced when the future value of customers is estimated based on survey data. The scarcity of the survey data and the sampling variance are countered by utilizing the prior information and quantifying the uncertainty of the CE and CLV estimates by posterior distributions. Furthermore, information on the purchase behavior of the customers of competitors available in the survey data is integrated to the framework. The introduced approach is directly applicable in the domains where a customer relationship can be thought to be monogamous. As an example on the use of the framework, we analyze a consumer survey on mobile phones carried out in Finland in February 2013. The survey data contains consumer given information on the current and previous brand of the phone and the times of the last two purchases.     

Our Common European Model of Agriculture

Our Common European Model of Agriculture
Future internal and external forces on European agriculture mean that the CAP may look very different after 2013. However large these changes, the CAP will need to retain its common principles based on the European Model of Agriculture (EMA). This became clear in an informal September meeting of EU agriculture ministers in Oulu, arranged by the Finnish Presidency. A strong CAP will be needed in the future but it will have to evolve to meet upcoming challenges. Work on the future CAP will need to start soon and the Oulu meeting may become known as the starting point for those discussions. The CAP will have to provide a reasonable environment for practicing agriculture for very different farmers in very diverse conditions, and facilitate the supply of a wide variety of goods and services to consumers and taxpayers as only truly multifunctional agriculture can. If the CAP can maintain these characteristics it has an important role to play in a future Europe. The meeting in Oulu was also an important milestone for a very special reason: for the first time, all ten New Member States took an active part in the EMA-debate with full rights and responsibilities as part of the Union. Once again this underlines the central role of our common European Model of Agriculture.     

Beggar-thyself or beggar-thy-neighbour? The welfare effects of monetary policy

This paper examines whether monetary expansion is a beggar-thyself or beggar-thy-neighbour policy. Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995) show that monetary expansion under producer currency pricing increases domestic and foreign overall welfare, in cases where the cross-country substitutability is high. If the cross-country substitutability is low, then monetary expansion is a beggar-thyself policy that reduces domestic welfare and increases foreign welfare (Corsetti & Pesenti 2001; Tille 2001). In this paper, we will show that regardless of whether the cross-country substitutability is high or low, monetary expansion is always a beggar-thyself policy in the short run.     

To whom are IAS earnings informative? Domestic versus foreign shareholders' perspectives

Using a sample from the Helsinki Stock Exchange, this paper analyses the information content of dual disclosures of IAS (International Accounting Standards) and LAS (Local Accounting Standards) earnings. Their information content to foreign and domestic shareholders can be distinguished from each other as the unrestricted shares (available to foreign and domestic investors) and the restricted shares (available to domestic investors only) of the same set of companies were listed separately during 198492. The information content is tested with regressions using market-adjusted stock returns measured from the fifty-week period ending in the week of financial statements release. The overall findings suggest that restating local GAAP earnings according to the IAS helps to meet foreign investors' information needs, but is of limited use to domestic investors.