Relation between bid–ask spread,impact and volatility in order-driven markets

We show that the cost of market orders and the profit of infinitesimal market-making or -taking strategies can be expressed in terms of directly observable quantities, namely the spread and the lag-dependent impact function. Imposing that any market taking or liquidity providing strategies is at best marginally profitable, we obtain a linear relation between the bid–ask spread and the instantaneous impact of market orders, in good agreement with our empirical observations on electronic markets. We then use this relation to justify a strong, and hitherto unnoticed, empirical correlation between the spread and the volatility per trade, with R ²s exceeding 0.9. This correlation suggests both that the main determinant of the bid–ask spread is adverse selection, and that most of the volatility comes from trade impact. We argue that the role of the time-horizon appearing in the definition of costs is crucial and that long-range correlations in the order flow, overlooked in previous studies, must be carefully factored in. We find that the spread is significantly larger on the NYSE, a liquid market with specialists, where monopoly rents appear to be present.     

Analysing the lobby-effect of port competitiveness’ determinants: a stochastic frontier approach

Building upon a formerly performed study on port competitiveness, this article discusses the use of a stochastic frontier model as an interesting novel use to test, identify and correct respondents’ bias by applying it to competitiveness analysis based on perceptions of senior executives. Measuring the importance of competition determinants of seaports, conventionally analyzed using a SWOT-analysis based on (transport) infrastructure as a prime requirement for port activity growth, is an important issue to port management. However, it seems that the “institutional” environment of a seaport is also critical in obtaining a competitive advantage. In Haezendonck et al. (2000 and 2001) those port specific advantages and disadvantages were identified using factor analysis and L1-regression on the perceptions of 75 respondents, all senior executives and experts, through a survey. As regards the results of this study, critiques were formulated on the use of perceptions, often biased due to the political lobbying potential of the results. Since respondents often see independent studies as an opportunity to obtain more or early government subsidies, attract new investment projects or at least highlight the attention on their specific problems and demands, they were prone to underestimating the positive impact of the key success factors of the studied seaport compared to its main rivals, in this case major seaports in the so-called Hamburg–Le Havre competitive range. The purpose of this article is to test the assumption that respondents significantly underestimate the positive impact of port specific advantages and to see which of the respondent subgroups within the 75 respondents sample are more responsible than others for this underestimation. In addition, we argue and demonstrate that the use of a stochastic frontier method is appropriate for this matter. Each of 25 considered competition determinants of the original study is decomposed into a noise and “efficiency” term, based on the Bayesian stochastic frontier model (BSFM). In this article, we find evidence that BSFM could be used to test the “lobby-effect” or underestimation of the real effect of determinants, that terminal operators as a subgroup of respondents, are more likely to underestimate the key success factors than the subgroup of port experts and that those determinants that are directly related to government action show more underestimation than competitiveness determinants that result from private investments.     

Calibration of local volatility model with stochastic interest rates by efficient numerical PDE methods

Decisions in Economics and Finance - Long-maturity options or a wide class of hybrid products are evaluated using a local volatility-type modelling for the asset price S(t) with a stochastic...     

On the realized volatility of the ECX CO2 emissions 2008 futures contract: distribution, dynamics and forecasting

This article documents the conditional and unconditional distributions of the realized volatility for the 2008 futures contract in the European climate exchange (ECX), which is valid under the EU emissions trading scheme (EU ETS). Realized volatility measures from naive, kernel-based and subsampling estimators are used to obtain inferences about the distributional and dynamic properties of the ECX emissions futures volatility. The distribution of the daily realized volatility in logarithmic form is shown to be close to normal. The mixture-of-normals hypothesis is strongly rejected, as the returns standardized using daily measures of volatility clearly departs from normality. A simplified HAR-RV model (Corsi in J Financ Econ 7:174–196, 2009) with only a weekly component, which reproduces long memory properties of the series, is then used to model the volatility dynamics. Finally, the predictive accuracy of the HAR-RV model is tested against GARCH specifications using one-step-ahead forecasts, which confirms the HAR-RV superior ability.     

Trade and unemployment: What do the data say?

This paper documents a robust empirical regularity: in the long-run, higher trade openness is associated with a lower structural rate of unemployment. We establish this fact using: (i) panel data from 20 OECD countries, (ii) cross-sectional data on a larger set of countries. The time structure of the panel data allows us to control for unobserved heterogeneity, whereas cross-sectional data make it possible to instrument openness by its geographical component. In both setups, we purge the data of business cycle effects, include a host of institutional and geographical variables, and control for within-country trade. Our main finding is robust to various definitions of unemployment rates and openness measures. Our benchmark specification suggests that a 10 percentage point increase in total trade openness reduces aggregate unemployment by about three quarters of one percentage point.     

PV adoption: the role of distribution tariffs under net metering

Journal of Regulatory Economics - The deployment of decentralized productions units (DPU) like rooftop solar panels is a major challenge for a transition towards greener energy sources. Under a net...     

How well does a small structural model with sticky prices and wages fit postwar U.S. data?

In this paper, we ask whether a small structural model with sticky prices and wages, embedding various modelling devices designed to increase the degree of strategic complementarity between price-setters, can fit postwar U.S. data. To answer this question, we resort to a two-step empirical evaluation of our model. In a first step, we estimate the model by minimizing the distance between theoretical autocovariances of key macroeconomic variables and their VAR-based empirical counterparts. In a second step, we resort to Watson's [Watson, M.W., 1993. Measures of fit for calibrated models. Journal of Political Economy 101, 1011–1041.] procedure [Measures of fit for calibrated models. Journal of Political Economy 101 (6), 1011.1041] to quantify the model's goodness-of-fit. Our main result is that the combination of sticky prices and sticky wages is central in order to obtain a good empirical fit. Our analysis also reveals that a model with only sticky wages does not perform well according to Watson's criterion [Watson, M.W., 1993. Measures of fit for calibrated models. Journal of Political Economy 101, 1011–1041.].     

On hierarchical competition in oligopoly

In this paper, we consider a hierarchical oligopoly model, in which firms compete on quantities of an homogeneous product. We provide a proof and an interpretation that under the three necessary and sufficient conditions of linear aggregate demand, constant and identical marginal costs, the strategy of leaders at any stage depends neither on the number of leaders who play after nor on the number of remaining stages. So, all firms behave as Cournotian oligopolists on the residual demand. We show that these three assumptions are not only sufficient but also necessary. Any departure from any of these assumptions rules out this property.     

Bidding for money

We analyze monetary exchange in a model that allows for directed search and multilateral matches. We consider environments with divisible goods and indivisible money, and compare the results with those in models that use random matching and bilateral bargaining. Two different pricing mechanisms are used: ex ante price posting, and ex post bidding (auctions). Also, we consider settings both with and without lotteries. We find that the model generates very simple and intuitive equilibrium allocations that are similar to those with random matching and bargaining, but with different comparative static and welfare properties.     

Bounds for VIX futures given S&P 500 smiles

We derive sharp bounds for the prices of VIX futures using the full information of S&P 500 smiles. To that end, we formulate the model-free sub/superreplication of the VIX by trading in the S&P 500 and its vanilla options as well as the forward-starting log-contracts. A dual problem of minimizing/maximizing certain risk-neutral expectations is introduced and shown to yield the same value.The classical bounds for VIX futures given the smiles only use a calendar spread of log-contracts on the S&P 500. We analyze for which smiles the classical bounds are sharp and how they can be improved when they are not. In particular, we introduce a family of functionally generated portfolios which often improves the classical bounds while still being tractable; more precisely, they are determined by a single concave/convex function on the line. Numerical experiments on market data and SABR smiles show that the classical lower bound can be improved dramatically, whereas the upper bound is often close to optimal.