我国黄金期货市场价格发现与套期保值功能——基于ARDL-ECM模型

文章收集了2011-2013年的黄金期货和现货价格数据,采用ARDL-ECM模型分析我国黄金期货价格和现货价格之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究表明:我国黄金期货市场具有完美且有效的套期保值功能,但尚不具有价格发现功能,其运行效率有待提高。     

中、德循环经济发展的比较研究

本文通过对比中、德发展循环经济的背景、模式和基础等条件差异,总结德国循环经济的特点。中国发展循环经济应借鉴德国经验,立足国情,走清洁生产与综合治理相结合、强制性实施与义务性实施相结合、原始创新与引进吸收相结合、绿色税收与绿色行政管理相结合的道路。     

倒边盖挖逆作法基坑支护结构可靠性分析

为了解决采用标准Monte Carlo法计算复杂基坑工程上常见小概率失效,导致计算效率低的问题,以南京市湖南路地下商业街工程为工程背景,首先,将随机响应面法与基坑工程三维模型相结合,求解极限功能函数的响应面方程,并用标准Monte Carlo法计算失效概率和可靠指标,探讨采用倒边盖挖逆作法作为基坑支护结构施工方法的可行性;其次,基于该响应面方程,以土体的弹性模量为随机变量参数,采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗子集模拟法(MCMC子集模拟法)计算基坑支护结构的失效概率,并与标准Monte Carlo法结果进行对比分析。结果表明：当支护结构最大侧移控制指标为25 mm时,计算得到的可靠指标均大于4.6,即采用倒边盖挖逆作法施工过程中基坑是安全的;10万次和50万次标准Monte Carlo法计算得到的失效概率均为零,说明对于标准Monte Carlo法,在计算小概率失效问题时10万与50万的样本量是不足的;而MCMC子集模拟法用2.98万个样本计算出的结果与标准Monte Carlo法采用100万个样本计算的结果相对误差仅为1.7%,表明MCMC子集模拟法对于小概率失效问题求解的优势。所提算法在一定...     

价值工程在特大型不锈钢封头制造中的应用

在对太空模拟训练仓中的特大形不锈钢封头制造中,运用了价值工程手段,并创新采用近似椭圆参数(R=0.8415D和r=0.1285D)和椭圆形封头顶圆的足球瓣结构,产品质量满足要求且降低了成本。     

Hot Money and Business Cycle Volatility： Evidence from China

This paper investigates the link between hot money and business cycle volatility in China from January 1997 to December 2009. Using the structural vector error correction model we find a considerable degree of long-run cointegration and bidirectional causality effects between hot money and business cycle volatility. The speculative shocks are found to temporarily promote China＇s economic growth, but also to exacerbate business cycle volatility. The liquidity shock stemming from hot money is shown to be the primary factor responsible for the significantly enhanced fluctuation in business cycles during the most recent global financial crisis period This could be detrimental to the smooth operation of financial markets. Therefore, informing future policies, it is critical for policy-makers to take precautions against the speculative factors.     

The impact of participative leadership on job performance and organizational citizenship behavior: distinguishing between the mediating effects of affective and cognitive trust

This study examines the mediating effects of cognitive trust and affective trust on the relationship between supervisors' participative leadership behavior and subordinate work outcomes, using data obtained from 247 dyads in a manufacturing organization located in mainland China. Structural equation modeling revealed that while affective trust fully mediated the relationships between participative leadership of supervisor and subordinate job performance and organizational citizenship behavior, cognitive trust had non-significant effects. These findings underscore the importance of interpersonal interactions between the supervisor and subordinate for engendering subordinate work outcomes. They also lend support to the exchange (relationship)-based explanation as to how trust enhances the response of subordinates to the participative leadership behavior of their immediate supervisor, given that affective trust involves a process of social exchange between both parties over an extended period of time.     

提高城镇体系规划编制的科学性和可操作性

随着我国城市化的加速发展,大城市的某些功能正在迅速地向周边郊县扩散,沿海一带城乡之间、城市建成区与非建成区之间的界线日趋模糊。另外,在市场化和经济全球化的大背景下,城市和国家间的竞争已经突出地表现为以中心城市为核心与其周边城镇共同构成的城市区域之间的竞争。基于这些观点,从分析我国城镇体系规划的问题着手,提出提高此类规划科学性和可操作性的若干对策。     

Evolutionary game theory and evolutionary economics: are they different species?

Evolutionary game theory and evolutionary economics seem to inhabit different academic spheres and have little collaboration with one another. Neither side cites much research by the other. Does this de facto academic separation impede fruitful possibilities for mutual inspiration and joint development? This paper addresses this question by considering (1) the different origins and research orientations of the two genres, (2) to what extent evolutionary economists could make use of evolutionary game theory, and (3) what evolutionary game theorists might learn from other, less formal, modes of theorising. The paper concludes that while significant possibilities for collaboration exist, the foremost test is whether they can help enhance our understanding of structures and causal processes in the real world.     

珠澳同城的双钻石模型分析

珠海、澳门的文化同出一源,地理位置相近,陆路相通,两地的产业结构和经济特征不一样,随着各自经济发展,合作互补需求旺盛,珠澳同城呼声越来越高。不过,现实却是珠澳、粤澳政府间的合作谈的多,行动慢。本文利用双钻石模型,从战略结构、需求条件、要素与瓶颈、机会、政府等五个方面进行分析,并就如何提升珠澳同城水平提出了真诚合作互惠互利;循序渐进;完善对话机制;借力横琴等四点建议。     

中国制造业资本偏好水平评价

构建了包括劳动密集型产业和资本密集型产业的政府目标函数,利用2005—2012年中国省际面板数据,测算了劳动密集型产业和资本密集型产业的权重区间。研究结果表明:中国政府目标函数中资本密集产业部门的权重介于0.564~0.623之间,资本密集型产业部门的权重显著大于劳动密集型产业部门;政府更重视资本密集型产业部门的福利。