中国“一带一路”战略定位的三个问题

"一带一路"战略在大方向基本清晰的情况下,在战略定位上仍然存在着三个有待进一步厘清的问题,包括:"一带一路"是全球战略还是区域战略?"一带一路"应以多重双边伙伴关系为基础还是应以跨区域整合为基础?"一带一路"战略应以西北方向为优先还是应以东南方向为优先?对这三个问题的诠释对于"一带一路"战略的推进有着极为重要的意义。这一战略虽然表现出了一定的全球战略的特征,但在本质上还是区域性的;其的推进必须以多重双边伙伴关系为基础。就目前的具体政治形势与经济形势来看,"一带一路"战略开拓西北面临更大的不确定性。     

并购中的价格锚定:金融创新还是价值掠夺--基于上市公司并购重组的案例分析

高并购溢价一直是理论界和监管层关注的重点问题。本文以上市公司高并购溢价为例,深入分析了并购交易中锚定价格的动机及其经济后果。研究发现,上市公司的支付对价与并购标的业绩承诺现值之间的差额是融资购买股权的费用,并不是并购标的未来现金流的折现。这主要是上市公司利用信息不对称将融资购买股权的费用直接锚定在股价中,引导外部投资者看好此次并购,最终上市公司大股东通过减持掠夺了中小股东的利益。本文给监管层的政策建议是要规范并购重组中的定价问题,并详细披露相关的信息,以降低与外部投资者之间的信息不对称。     

An exploratory study of earnings management detectability,analyst coverage and the impact of IFRS adoption: Evidence from China

Analysts serving as external monitors to managers is a topic of considerable interest in the analyst coverage literature. There are two outcomes of analyst coverage studies: curbing and stimulating earnings management. However, recent studies (such as Yu, 2008) only provide evidence supporting the curbing side. Given the fact that the data of these studies focus on developed markets and the finding of Rodríguez-Pérez and Hemmen (2010) that external governance mechanisms may stimulate earnings management in an opaque information environment, we conjecture whether stimulating side would be dominant in emerging markets. China offers a valuable setting for us to test the question. Using the data of China capital market from 2003 to 2009, we find that analyst coverage stimulates earnings management through above-the-line items (ALIs) where earnings management cannot be easily detected, and curbs earnings management through below-the-line items (BLIs) where earnings management can be easily detected. We also find that the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in China does create many new opportunities for managers’ earnings management but does not significantly improve the monitoring effect of analyst coverage. We only find that compared to those without analyst coverage, firms with analyst coverage have a lower level of earnings management through BLIs after IFRS adoption. These findings suggest that information opacity may weaken the monitoring effect of external corporate governance mechanisms and high quality accounting standards in the literal sense may not enhance the monitoring effect of external corporate governance mechanisms if it is not compatible with the market’s institutional environment. In addition, we find that firms with earnings meeting the benchmark have a lower level of earnings management, which indicates that bright-line accounting based rules used in emerging capital markets may constrain the managers’ behavior.     

Following brands on Twitter: an extension of theory of planned behavior

Due to its immediacy and efficiency, Twitter has recently emerged as a form of marketing communication tool that offers unique advantages for two-way communication between marketers and consumers. This study examines brand-following behavior on Twitter using the Ajzen's model of theory of planned behavior (TPB). Results show that attitude toward brand following, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, and brand attachment are positively associated with intention to follow brands on Twitter. Consumers’ intention to create (i.e., intention to tweet at brands) and disseminate (i.e., intention to retweet the links of brands) brand-related information, as well as purchase intention, are the outcomes of intention to follow brands on Twitter. Overall findings suggest that TPB model can be used to predict Twitter users’ brand-following behavior. More importantly, our finding that brand attachment drives consumer intention to follow brands on Twitter extends the TPB framework. This study provides both theoretical and managerial implications.     

上海中货实行财务经理委派制的实践与探索

由于企业的体制构成复杂,适应市场经济的法律体系也不完备,社会监督还不健全,导致部分企业的国有资产及收益流失,财务监督弱化,会计基础工作落后,会计信息失算等问题的出现.因此对下属企业经营情况如何监管成为各公司急需解决的难题本文阐述会计委派制的几种形式及各自的优点与不足.随后分析了上海中货集团公司财务管理中存在的主要问题及实行财务经理委派制的背景,并通过财务经理委派制在上海中货所属企业的具体实践,论述了委派财务经理的职权与责任及对委派财务经理的管理与考核,以及实行财务经理委派制以后取得的主要成效.最后对财务经理委派制在上海中货具体实践进行思考和总结,并对财务管理委派制为什么会取成功进行了详细的论述.     

Maintaining a Reputation for Consistently Beating Earnings Expectations and the Slippery Slope to Earnings Manipulation

This paper investigates whether maintaining a reputation for consistently beating analysts' earnings expectations can motivate executives to move from “within GAAP” earnings management to “outside of GAAP” earnings manipulation. We analyze firms subject to SEC enforcement actions and find that these firms consistently beat analysts' quarterly earnings forecasts in the three years prior to the manipulation period and continue to do so by smaller “beats” during the manipulation period. We find that manipulating firms beat expectations around 86 percent of the time in the 12 quarters prior to the manipulation period (versus 75 percent for control firms) and that manipulation often ends with a miss in expectations. We document that executives of manipulating firms face strong stock market and CEO pressure to perform. Prior to the manipulation period, these firms have high analyst optimism, growing institutional interest, and high market valuations, along with powerful CEOs. Further, we find that maintaining a reputation for beating expectations is more important than CEO overconfidence and is incremental to CEO equity incentives for explaining manipulation. Our results suggest that pressure to maintain a reputation for beating analysts' expectations can encourage aggressive accounting and, ultimately, earnings manipulation.     

中国失业保险制度改革方向:纳入社会救助——基于历史背景与功能定位的分析

失业保险在建立和长期发展过程中,具有缓和劳资矛盾、天然双向平滑经济波动、提供失业保障和平滑个人收入的基本功能。但随着各国劳动保护及福利制度的发展,失业保险在政治和经济方面的功能减弱,且其失业收入损失补偿功能常常引发失业陷阱,于是各国进行了以促进积极就业为导向的改革。中国失业保险制度曾经为经济体制转型起到了“减震器”的作用。随着劳动保护和社会保障制度的发展和政府就业政策的完善,在二元就业结构、户籍制度、公共部门人力资源管理制度及政府承担就业促进任务的影响下,我国失业保险的政治、经济、失业人口收入补偿、就业促进功能未能有效发挥。在比较了若干改革方案后,本文认为,取消失业保险并将其功能并入社会救助体系是新时代背景下我国失业保险制度的最优改革路径。     

浅析FEWD随钻测井技术的作用与应用效果

随钻遥测、随钻电法、声波、核、核磁共振、随钻地震等技术近几年具有长足的发展。随钻测井技术主要应用于地质导向和地层评价。大力发展随钻测井技术是油田技术服务公司的一个主要关注方向。我国发展随钻测井技术要有新的思路,实现跨越式发展,才能紧跟世界石油工业先进技术的发展步伐,达到提高国内随钻测井技术水平的目的。本文针对利用该FEWD形成的随钻测井技术,介绍了该技术涉及到的常用井下仪器组合、常用钻具组合、现场施工管理方式、主要应用技术,以及该技术的应用范围、应用效果和在部分油田的使用情况。     

Market timing: Recent development and a new test

Henriksson-Merton's market timing test suffers nontrivial size distortion when the event forecast is autocorrelated. A new test is suggested to detect the dependence of two autocorrelated binary time series. It complements the existing tests due to better test power.