Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.     

The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany

In September 2007, the Federal German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) launched a new foresight process which aimed at four specific targets. To achieve them, a tailor-made combination of methods was applied. This paper focuses on the concept design of the process and explains one of the methods — the future online survey — in more detail.The German Foresight Process of the BMBF delivers results on different levels: broader future fields as well as single future topics. Both kinds are relevant and selected according to a set of criteria. Some of the results of this foresight process will be directly integrated into national policy activities, others are just more indirectly filtered into the innovation system of the specific sectors in the country. The future fields are all cross-cutting issues based on science and technology. All of them are specifically knowledge dynamic fields.     

Making unilateral trade liberalisation beneficial to the poor

In this paper, we investigate the impacts of unilateral import liberalisation by a representative South Asian developing economy, Nepal, and demonstrate those conditions required to make the impacts ‘pro-poor.’ Applying the Computable General Equilibrium model to Social Accounting Matrix data, we conclude that import liberalisation is growth-enhancing but that, unfortunately, the rich benefit more than do the poor. We envisage a restructured but plausible model economy that requires a transformational period of ten years, and simulate unilateral trade liberalisation but, in the context of a dynamic model. We conclude that improvement in efficiency parameters, reorganisation of investment patterns, along with reallocation of factors of production by both household group and activity type are required to make growth accrued by import liberalisation ‘pro-poor’ in developing economies such as that of Nepal.     

Booking horizon forecasting with dynamic updating: A case study of hotel reservation data

A highly accurate demand forecast is fundamental to the success of every revenue management model. As is often required in both practice and theory, we aim to forecast the accumulated booking curve, as well as the number of reservations expected for each day in the booking horizon. To reduce the dimensionality of this problem, we apply singular value decomposition to the historical booking profiles. The forecast of the remaining part of the booking horizon is dynamically adjusted to the earlier observations using the penalized least squares and historical proportion methods. Our proposed updating procedure considers the correlation and dynamics of bookings both within the booking horizon and between successive product instances. The approach is tested on real hotel reservation data and shows a significant improvement in forecast accuracy.     

Market growth through mergers and acquisitions: The role of the relationship marketing manager in sustaining performance

This research suggests that firms considering a merger and acquisition strategy need to pay attention to the relationship marketing managers of the target firm and the implicit agreements that have kept them with the target firm. The results of this study convey that the joint activity of maintaining the implicit contracts and retaining the relationship marketing managers have a stabilizing and positive impact on the productivity of subordinate marketing employees. These employees are a key success factor that enables the target firm to function effectively after the acquisition.     

Criteria involved in evaluation of trade shows to visit

An organizer of trade shows (TSs) need to know the framework of criteria used by potential visitors in their ex-ante evaluation of trade shows. This paper comes to fill a gap in the published research, aiming to answer two research questions: which criteria are important for visitors in evaluating TSs to visit? And which is the underlying structure of criteria? A sample of retailers was interviewed and, after using a Confirmatory Factor Analysis, a measurement model was identified. The results confirm the underlying structure suggested by the integration of separate criteria or elements previously identified in other studies. Also, that the changes in the marketing orientation of companies have affected the evaluation criteria used by visitors. Additionally, the results show differences between visitants and exhibitors. The main disparity is the non-relevance of the marketing research criteria: TSs are a good marketing research tool for exhibitors but much more limited for visitors.     

Exploiting innovative opportunities in global purchasing: An assessment of ethical climate and relationship performance

Purchasing managers are expected to balance costs, innovation, supplier management, and corporate social responsibility while coordinating expanding areas of the corporation. The increased responsibilities and pressures to innovate brings purchasing managers into potentially increasingly difficult ethical dilemmas. In this study, we examine the relationships between organizational culture, learning, entrepreneurial innovation, and purchasing outcomes in different ethical climates. To address external business conditions that may influence innovation in purchasing, we also examine the moderating effects of technological and market turbulence. Data from 200 purchasing managers in multinational corporations were used to test the relationships through structural equation modeling. We find that entrepreneurial innovation positively affects the quality of the relationships among sourcing participants when operating in a climate valuing ethics. The study results are particularly relevant for managers concerned that establishing an ethical climate may restrict innovation in the purchasing process.