An Experimental Analysis of Contingent Capital with Market‐Price Triggers

We report an experiment that evaluates three market‐based regimes for triggering the conversion of contingent capital bonds into equity: a “fixed‐trigger” regime, where a price threshold triggers mandatory conversion; a “regulator” regime, where regulators make conversion decisions based on prices; and a “prediction market” regime, where regulators also observe a market that predicts conversion. Consistent with theory, we observe inefficiencies and conversion errors in the fixed‐trigger and regulator regimes. The prediction market somewhat improves the regulator's performance, but inefficiencies and conversion errors persist. The regulator regime has conversion errors over the widest range of shocks.     

The disinfectant action of low-temperature laundering

The purpose of this research was to investigate the disinfectant action of a heavy-duty biological detergent at low and recommended washing temperatures. The effectiveness of the process was measured in terms of the removal, transfer and destruction of bacteria from infected test pieces. The results indicate that reducing the washing temperature decreases the degree of disinfection and increases the cross-infection of any articles washed in the same load. Evidence is also obtained that shows that the presence of detergent is more important than the washing temperature for disinfectant action.     

The Investment Performance of Low-grade Bond Funds

This study extends the literature on the pricing of low-grade bonds by examining the performance of low-grade bond funds. The findings reveal that over the long run low-grade bond fund returns are approximately equal to the returns provided by an index of high-grade bonds. The relative risks of high and low-grade bonds are more difficult to assess. Because of their shorter durations, low-grade bonds are less sensitive to movements in interest rates than high-grade bonds. On the other hand, low-grade bonds are much more sensitive to changes in stock prices than high-grade bonds. When adjusted for risk using a simple two-factor model, the returns on low-grade bond funds are not statistically different from the returns on high-grade bonds.     

MARKETS, MORALS, PROPERTY, AND OTHER RIGHTS: A REJOINDER TO THE PASTORAL LETTER

The pastoral letter calls for a radical restructuring of the American economy. The restructuring is to be set on a foundation of economic rights, a social mortgage on privately held property, and a deference toward the small within the political system. The restructuring also is intended to avoid statist or totalitarian outcomes. The second half of the pastoral letter, containing the policy analysis and recommendations, is not consistent with the basic system for restructuring the economy contained in the first half. The practical visions of the second half of the pastoral letter do not provide for economic rights or a social mortgage. Analyzing the logic of the basic system for restructuring the economy shows that it is inconsistent with the bishops' intended goal of a non-statist economy. The flawed logic of the basic system explains the inconsistency between the two major parts of the pastoral letter.     

Taxes,Default Risk,and Yield Spreads

This paper develops a model of bond prices and yield spreads that incorporates the effect of both taxes and differences in default probabilities. The tax loss consequences of default are recognized. Traditionally, tax-free (municipal) bond yields have been viewed as linearly related to taxable yields with a slope coefficient equal to one minus the tax rate and the intercept representing differences in default risk. While our model supports the linearity assumption, it implies that the slope and intercept are both functions of both the break-even tax rate and the default probability(ies). Clientele effects among both municipal and taxable bonds are demonstrated. Finally, the implied marginal tax rates and the implied default probabilities are estimated for different categories of municipal bonds.     

Using Coupon Incentives in Recycling Aluminum: A Market Approach to Energy Conservation Policy

A field experiment was conducted on a stratified sample of 354 recyclers and nonrecyclers to test the effects of coupon incentives on consumers' intentions and behavior in recycling aluminum. Results indicate that modest coupon incentives positively influenced recyclers' behavior, but did not influence nonrecyclers. Over the range of incentives tested, evidence suggests that increased recycling frequency is directly related to the coupon value. Implications for incorporating coupon promotional programs into the development of energy conservation policy, and areas for future research are discussed.     

HOW DOES GLOBALIZATION AFFECT INDUSTRIAL COMPETITIVENESS?

Industrial competitiveness (IC), reflecting a country's ability to produce and export manufactures competitively, is closely associated with economic growth. How does globalization affect IC? While the topic is of great importance, empirical studies on the issue in the literature have been limited. This article attempts to close the gap by estimating the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) and international trade with cross‐country data in 1985 and 1998. Taking advantage of a recently constructed IC index, we estimate several regression models of effects of FDI and trade on industrial performance. Results suggest that FDI and trade have a positive impact on IC, and increasing integration with the world economy through FDI and trade contributes to better industrial performance. (JEL F02, F10, F21, L60)     

Returns to Scale,Market Power,and the Nature of Price Rigidity in New Keynesian Models with Self‐Fulfilling Expectations

Increasing returns to scale and firms' market power are two potential sources of sunspot expectations in neoclassical models. We show that in New Keynesian models, returns to scale and market power can have fundamentally different implications for broad macroeconomic issues, including self‐fulfilling expectations, depending on the nature of price rigidity. Our findings suggest that the design of stabilization monetary policy can depend on precise knowledge about the economy's real and nominal features. Therefore, a clear understanding of the specific economic environment and its relevance to monetary policymaking for ensuring macroeconomic stability can be an integrated part of monetary policy practice.     

Dealing with Time Inconsistency: Inflation Targeting versus Exchange Rate Targeting

Adopting a single instead of multiple targets can be an effective way to overcome the classic time‐inconsistency problem. The choice of a single mandate depends on the trade openness and the credibility. Reduced‐form empirical results show as central banks become less credible, they are more likely to adopt a pegged exchange rate, and the tendency to peg depends on trade openness. In a model with “loose commitment,” as credibility falls, either an inflation target or a pegged exchange rate is more likely to be adopted. A relatively closed (highly open) economy would adopt an inflation target (exchange rate peg).