THRESHOLD AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING IN FINANCE: THE PRICE DIFFERENCES OF EQUIVALENT ASSETS1

Threshold autoregressive (TAR) models condition the first moment of a time series on lagged information using a step-function-type nonlinear structure. TAR techniques are expected to be relevant in financial time-series modeling in situations where deviations of prices from equilibrium values depend on discrete transaction costs and where market regulators follow intervention rules based on threshold values of control variables. an important finance application is in modeling the difference in prices of equivalent assets in the presence of transaction costs. the focus of this paper is on motivating the use of TAR models in this context and on the statistical estimation and testing procedures. the procedures are illustrated by modeling the difference between the prices of an index futures contract and the equivalent underlying cash index. It is found that the hypothesis of linearity is conclusively rejected in favor of threshold nonlinearity and that the estimated thresholds are largely consistent with arbitrage-related transaction costs.     

MATURITY,STAGNATION AND CONSUMER DEBT: A STEINDLIAN APPROACH

This paper extends a Steindlian model of growth and income distribution to incorporate borrowing by consumers. It shows that borrowing by consumers can improve growth prospects in the short run by increasing consumer demand. However, in the longer run the effects of increasing consumer borrowing are ambiguous because, by increasing consumer debt, it redistributes income towards the rich who have a higher propensity to save, thereby possibly depressing aggregate demand and growth despite the borrowing‐induced expansion. The problem may be exacerbated by financial considerations involving the increase of the interest rate due to greater borrowing, but these considerations are not necessary for it. The problem is more likely to occur when autonomous investment demand is weak, i.e. when borrowing‐induced consumption increases are most required to counter tendencies towards stagnation.     

格林斯潘谈全球经济

很多人认为,如果美联储主席还是艾伦.格林斯潘的话,面对此次金融市场动荡,美国央行或许会更快、更有力地降息。不会的,格林斯潘如是说。在他位于华盛顿康涅狄格大道的办公室里,在长达3小时的采访过程中,这位前美联储主席表示：时代不同了。格林斯潘称："我们现在所处的时期,要比我在任时困难许多。当时,我们不用担心通胀的苏醒,现在则不得不关注这一点。"他补充道："相比之下,你在下调利率以应对危机时,不得不更加万分小心。"     

Stairway to heaven or highway to hell: Liquidity,sweat equity,and the uncertain path to ownership

We study a setting in which a principal contracts with an agent to operate a firm over an infinite time horizon when the agent is liquidity constrained and privately observes the sequence of cost realizations. We formulate the principal’s problem as a dynamic program in which the state variable is the agent’s continuation utility, which is naturally interpreted as his equity in the firm. The optimal incentive scheme resembles what is commonly regarded as a sweat equity contract, with all rents back loaded. Payments begin when the agent effectively becomes the owner, and from this point on, all production is efficient. These features are shown to be similar to features common in real‐world work‐to‐own franchising agreements and venture capital contracts.     

Real wages,real interest rates,and the Phillips curve

This article argues that any analysis of a Phillips curve should include the real interest rate in addition to inflation and real wages as any changes in the interest rate changes the labour–capital input mix in the production process leading to a change in the level of employment in the economy. To justify this argument a Phillips curve model is developed, which includes the real interest rate in addition to inflation and real wages. After the diagnosis of the time series properties of the data, an error correction model is developed and estimated using a set of US annual data from 1948 to 1996. The estimated parameters of the model do suggest that one should really take into consideration of the real interest rate while analysing the Phillips curve. A non-nested test (F-test) also suggests that the Phillips curve model with real interest rate as an additional variable performs better than the conventional method that does not include the real interest rate.     

On the efficiency of ‘single window’

In many countries, the process of obtaining government approval for different projects involves interaction with multiple government agencies at various levels. This often makes the approval process inefficient by unnecessary lengthening it. In this paper we study the effect of a re-organization of the approval process towards making it a single window clearance system, on the efficiency of the entire process. We have used the expected queue length and the expected waiting time in the system at the stochastic steady state as measures of inefficiency of an approval system.     

Testing and imposing Slutsky symmetry in nonparametric demand systems

Maximization of utility implies that consumer demand systems have a Slutsky matrix which is everywhere symmetric. However, previous non- and semi-parametric approaches to the estimation of consumer demand systems do not give estimators that are restricted to satisfy this condition, nor do they offer powerful tests of this restriction. We use nonparametric modeling to test and impose Slutsky symmetry in a system of expenditure share equations over prices and expenditure. In this context, Slutsky symmetry is a set of nonlinear cross-equation restrictions on levels and derivatives of consumer demand equations. The key insight is that due to the differing convergence rates of levels and derivatives and due to the fact that the symmetry restrictions are linear in derivatives, both the test and the symmetry restricted estimator behave asymptotically as if these restrictions were (locally) linear. We establish large and finite sample properties of our methods, and show that our test has advantages over the only other comparable test. All methods we propose are implemented with Canadian micro-data. We find that our nonparametric analysis yields statistically significantly and qualitatively different results from traditional parametric estimators and tests.     

Revenue and efficiency effects of resale in first-price auctions

We study first-price auctions in a model with asymmetric, independent private values. Asymmetries lead to inefficient allocations, thereby creating a motive for resale after the auction is over. In our model, resale takes place via monopoly pricing—the winner of the auction makes a take-it-or-leave-it offer to the loser. Our goal is to compare equilibria of the first-price auction without resale (FPA) with those of the first-price auction with resale (FPAR). For the three major families of distributions for which equilibria of the FPA are available in closed form, we show that resale possibilities increase the revenue of the original seller. We also show by example that, somewhat paradoxically, resale may actually decrease efficiency.     

Acquisition of organizational capabilities and competitive advantage of IJVs in transition economies: The case of Vietnam

Using Vietnam as the context, the study empirically examines how the competitive advantage of international joint ventures (IJVs) in transition economies is affected by the acquisition of resources from foreign partners and of local market-based resources. Our study contributes to the nascent literature on IJVs in transition economies by producing several novel and interesting findings. First, it demonstrates the need to modify certain arguments of the resource-based view (RBV) when applied to IJVs in transition economies. This paper shows that the peculiar market characteristics of transition economies serve as an imitation barrier turning even property-based resources into sources of sustainable competitive advantage. Second, the positive impact of knowledge-based resources on the IJV’s competitiveness seems to be significantly enhanced as the ownership by the foreign parent increases. Lastly, competitive advantage of IJVs appears to be strengthened when the transfer of property-based resources is complemented by that of knowledge-based resources, and when the transfer of internal, firm-specific resources is complemented by that of external, market-based ones. We believe that these findings make significant, incremental theoretical and empirical contributions to both the RBV and IJV literatures.