中国省际城镇职工工资收入分布演进的时空特征

运用Kernel密度估计方法和空间马尔科夫链分析方法,并将空间因素纳入分析框架中,对1978—2009年期间中国省际城镇职工工资收入分布演进的时空特征进行了分析。研究结果表明:从时间动态性看,中国省际城镇职工工资收入的差距正逐步固化和深化,多俱乐部收敛特征明显、贫困陷阱问题日益突出;从空间动态性看,近邻效应对省际城镇职工工资收入分布演进存在一定影响,多数省份的工资收入水平向邻区的平均工资收入水平演进。     

荷兰能源政策和技术特色

分析荷兰《2011年能源报告》,可看出该国能源政策的要点是既要朝着低碳经济过渡,也要为保经济增长而适度使用燃煤和天然气;在巩固其在天然气领域产业优势的同时,积极开发新能源技术;通过市场竞争机制,保持荷兰在西北欧能源枢纽地位。通过以天然气、风能、太阳能和智能电网为例,凸现荷兰在这几个领域里的独到之处,借以说明该国能源政策的产业技术背景。     

Estimating gravity equation models in the presence of sample selection and heteroscedasticity

Gravity models are widely used to explain patterns of trade. However, two stylized features of trade data, sample selection and heteroscedasticity challenge the estimation of gravity models. We propose a two-step method of moments (TS-MM) estimator that deals with both issues. The Monte-Carlo experiments show that the TS-MM estimates are resistant to various combinations of sample selection and heteroscedasticity. Moreover, the TS-MM estimator performs reasonably well even when the data generating process deviates from the TS-MM assumptions. We revisit the world trade in 1990 to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed model, with emphasis on the identification of the extensive margin of trade.     

A limited information estimator for the multivariate ordinal probit model

A limited information estimator for the multivariate ordinal probit model is developed. The main advantage of the estimator is that even for high dimensional models, the estimation procedure requires the evaluation of bivariate normal integrals only. The proposed estimator also avoids the potential problem of encountering local maxima in the estimation process, which is looming using maximum likelihood. The performance of the limited information estimator is shown by Monte Carlo experiments to be excellent and it is comparable to that of the maximum likelihood estimator. Finally, an application of the limited information multivariate ordinal probit to model the consumption level of cigarette, alcohol and betel nut is presented.     

基于响应时间的供应链协调策略研究

在市场需求价格和响应时间敏感下,本文以一个供应商和一个制造商构成的两级MTO供应链为背景,通过建立供应链收益函数模型,分析响应时间对供应链企业决策的影响。给出了供应商和制造商在分散决策下的最优响应策略,得出了供应链双方在分散决策下无法实现供应链完美协调的结论。而后,对供应链协调问题进行了探讨,发现两部收费制契约在满足一定条件下能够实现供应链完美协调,并通过数值实例对上面的结论进行了释义和说明。     

住房抵押贷款的违约风险分析

本文运用期权数值方法分析住房抵押贷款借款者的违约行为,主要是分析抵押贷款违约期权的最优实施边界。这使得我们能够解释哪些房价和利率组合会引发借款者违约以及未来的违约概率。我们发现导致违约的房产价格高度依赖于同期市场利率,而且违约与贷款类型高度相关。我们考察了次优出售和再融资的情形,还考察了借款者面临违约声誉损失的情形,结果表明期权数值方法是稳健可靠的。本文的分析还使我们对美国次贷危机有更为客观理性的认识。     

关于开展国内商业信用保险的思考

国内商业信用保险在社会信用体系、国内贸易拓展市场、银行企业的风险管理、中小企业融资等多方面都有着自己独特的功能。目前国内商业信用保险在我国尚未得到充分发展,究其原因是由经济社会环境、供给、需求等方面因素造成。通过加强制度创新,产品和业务创新,可以有效地促进我国国内商业信用保险发展。     

中国钢铁行业能源内部的替代弹性分析

本文运用中国钢铁行业滞后一期的产出代替劳动和资本变量,把钢铁行业能源投入要素分解为煤炭、石油、天然气和电力的投入,建立了一个超越对数生产函数模型,用岭回归估算了中国钢铁行业各能源品种投入要素的产出弹性、替代弹性。结果表明:煤炭与石油、煤炭与天然气、煤炭与电力的替代弹性在1左右,中国钢铁行业可通过用石油、天然气、电力替代煤炭来实现其行业全要素能源效率的提高。     

国际贸易影响中国劳工标准的实证研究

本文采用劳工工资的变化率作为劳工标准变化指标并建立向量自回归模型.在保证模型稳定的情况下,估计国际贸易和出口对中国制造业劳工标准的影响,然后对模型进行向量误差修正,并分析向量的脉冲响应和方差分解,再进行格兰杰因果检验.结果表明,国际贸易和出口对制造业劳工标准均有显著正的影响,出口额的变动是劳工标准变动的格兰杰原因.这证实了斯托尔珀-萨缪尔森定理在中国的适用性.因此,发展对外贸易、扩大出口能够提高劳工标准,而抑制中国对外贸易的因素,可能不利于劳工标准的提高.     

PITFALLS IN CROSS‐SECTION STUDIES WITH INTEGRATED REGRESSORS: A SURVEY AND NEW DEVELOPMENTS

In cross‐section studies, if the dependent variable is I(0) but the regressor is I(1), the true slope must be zero in the resulting “unbalanced regression.” A spuriously significant relationship may be found in large cross‐sections, however, if the integrated regressor is related to a stationary variable that enters the DGP but is omitted from the regression. The solution is to search for the related stationary variable, in some cases the first difference of the integrated regressor, in other cases, a categorical variable that can take on limited number of values which depend on the integrated variable. We present an extensive survey, new developments, and applications particularly in finance.