Regulations,earnings management,and post-IPO performance: The Chinese evidence

In this study, we examine whether government regulatory initiatives in China involving IPO by SOEs may have contributed to opportunistic behaviors by the issuer. We focus on two sets of IPO regulations issued between January 1, 1996 and February 11, 1999: pricing regulations, which stipulate that IPO prices be a function of accounting performance, and penalty regulations, which penalize IPO firms for overly optimistic forecasts. We find that IPO firms that report better pricing-period accounting performance have larger declines in post-IPO profitability, lower first-day stock returns and worse long-run post-IPO stock performance. Furthermore, IPO firms that make overoptimistic forecasts also have lower first-day returns and worse post-IPO stock performance. Using non-core earnings as the proxy for earnings management, we document some evidence that IPO firms that report higher pricing-period accounting performance have engaged in more income-increasing earnings management. Hence, pricing regulations may have induced IPO firms to inflate pricing-period earnings and affect the post-IPO performance negatively. On the other hand, penalty regulations have deterred IPO firms from making overoptimistic earnings forecast and therefore have a positive impact on the behavior of IPO firms.     

Innovation quality of firms with the research and development tax credit

This paper examines innovation quality of U.S. research tax credit users (i.e., firms with currently earned research tax credits). Prior literature reports that the research tax credit is effective in increasing research and development (R&D) expenditures and reducing managers’ myopic behavior. However, little is known about the real (or economic) effect of R&D tax credits, as most of these findings have been based on estimated R&D tax credits rather than actual R&D tax credits. Additionally, some researchers and the government still have concerns about the real effect of R&D tax credits by criticizing the ambiguity and complexity of the tax codes (IRC Section 41). Therefore, I use actual R&D tax credits identified in firms’ 10-K and state R&D tax credits as identification tests to reduce endogeneity issues. My results indicate that research generating R&D tax credits contributes to better innovation quality and higher return volatility but lower pre-tax profitability. Overall, these findings imply that enacting the R&D tax credit provisions would trigger better innovation.     

Negotiators' Communication, Perception of Their Counterparts, and Performance in Dyadic E-negotiations

The aim of this study was to improve our understanding of negotiation strategies, behaviors, and outcomes, and the relationships between these factors based on data collected from questionnaires, actual behavior during the negotiation process implemented using e-negotiation system, and the negotiation outcomes. This study clustered the negotiators based on either the negotiators' own strategies or their thoughts about those of their partners. This resulted in a division into cooperative and noncooperative clusters. We found that the negotiators whose own strategies are less cooperative tend to submit more offers but fewer messages. However, these people consIDer that they have less control over the negotiation process compared with those who adopt a more cooperative strategy, who make fewer offers but send more messages. Those in the cooperative cluster consistently feel friendlier about the negotiation and more satisfied with the outcome and their performance. Further, there is a correlation not only between self-strategies and the thoughts about partners' strategies, but also between strategies and final agreements. Finally, the proportion of negotiations reaching agreement is larger for the cooperative cluster than for the noncooperative cluster.     

Asset-light strategy,managerial ability,and corporate performance of the Asian telecommunications industry

This paper examines the effects of asset-light strategy on the corporate performance of listed Asian telecommunications corporations and the moderating effect of managerial ability on the association between asset-light strategy and corporate performance. The study applies the dynamic slacks-based measure (DSBM) model and Tobit regression to measure managerial ability. The empirical results show that asset-light strategy positively affects corporate performance and that managerial ability has a significant moderating effect on the relationship between the degree of asset-lightness (DAL) and corporate performance. The findings further show that the greater the managerial ability, the stronger the relationship between DAL and corporate performance.     

Pricing of moving‐average‐type options with applications

Moving‐average‐type options are complex path‐dependent derivatives whose payoff depends on the moving average of stock prices. This article concentrates on two such options traded in practice: the moving‐average‐lookback option and the moving‐average‐reset option. Both options were issued in Taiwan in 1999, for example. The moving‐average‐lookback option is an option struck at the minimum moving average of the underlying asset's prices. This article presents efficient algorithms for pricing geometric and arithmetic moving‐average‐lookback options. Monte Carlo simulation confirmed that our algorithms converge quickly to the option value. The price difference between geometric averaging and arithmetic averaging is small. Because it takes much less time to price the geometric‐moving‐average version, it serves as a practical approximation to the arithmetic moving‐average version. When applied to the moving‐average‐lookback options traded on Taiwan's stock exchange, our algorithm gave almost the exact issue prices. The numerical delta and gamma of the options revealed subtle behavior and had implications for hedging. The moving‐average‐reset option was struck at a series of decreasing contract‐specified prices on the basis of moving averages. Similar results were obtained for such options with the same methodology. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:415–440, 2003     

Testing the predictive power of the term structure without data snooping bias

It is well documented that the term structure of interest rates has predictive power for real economic growth. Applying the stepwise superior predictive ability test, we find that superior models contain both a short-term rate and a term spread.     

Endogenous mergers under multi-market competition

This paper examines a simple model of strategic interactions among firms that face at least some of the same rivals in two related markets (for goods 1 and 2). It shows that when firms compete in quantity, market prices increase as the degree of multi-market contact increases. However, the welfare consequences of multi-market contact are more complex and depend on how two fundamental forces play out. The first is the selection effect, which acts to increase welfare, as shutting down the relatively more inefficient firm is beneficial. The second opposing effect is the internalisation of the Cournot externality effect; reducing the production of good 2 allows firms to sustain a higher price for good 1. This works to increase prices and, therefore, decrease consumer surplus (but increase producer surplus). These two effects are influenced by the degree of asymmetry between markets 1 and 2 and the degree of substitutability between goods 1 and 2.     

Equity Valuation Employing the Ideal versus Ad Hoc Terminal Value Expressions*

Recently, Penman and Sougiannis (1998) and Francis, Olsson, and Oswald (2000) compared the bias and accuracy of the discounted cash flow model (DCF) and Edwards‐Bell‐Ohlson residual income model (RIM) in explaining the relation between value estimates and observed stock prices. Both studies report that, with non‐price‐based terminal values, RIM outperforms DCF. Our first research objective is to explore the question whether, over a five‐year valuation horizon, DCF and RIM are empirically equivalent when Penman's (1997) theoretically “ideal” terminal value expressions are employed in each model. Using Value Line terminal stock price forecasts at the horizon to proxy for such values, we find empirical support for the prediction of equivalence between these valuation models. Thus, the apparent superiority of RIM does not hold in a level playing field comparison. Our second research objective is to demonstrate that, within each class of the DCF and RIM valuation models, the model that employs Value Line forecasted price in the terminal value expression generates the lowest prediction errors, compared with models that employ non‐price‐based terminal values under arbitrary growth assumptions. The results indicate that, for both DCF and RIM, price‐based valuation models outperform the corresponding non‐price‐based models by a wide margin. These results imply that researchers should exercise care in interpreting findings from models using ad hoc terminal value expressions.     

Do Financial Reforms Improve the Performance of Financial Holding Companies? The Case of Taiwan

We examine the performance of financial holding companies (FHCs) in Taiwan after the financial reform that removes the separation of banking, securities, insurance, and other financial services. Using data envelopment analysis, we find that FHCs fail to improve technical efficiencies in the post‐reform era. They also do not outperform independent commercial banks after the financial reform. Lower technical efficiency caused by excess operating expenses appears to be the primary source of inefficiency. While scale efficiency may improve as FHCs grow larger, the benefits are marginal and insufficient to offset the potential costs of organizational diseconomies. Our findings suggest that increasing the size and scope of financial activities alone do not necessarily improve the performance of financial firms.     

The euro and pound volatility dynamics: An investigation from conditional jump process

This paper investigates the variations of the volatility of euro and pound after the introduction of euro. A GARJI model is employed to analyze the impact of the news arrivals on the exchange rate volatility. The results are robust to the data-splitting schemes and indicate: (1) the conditional variance of euro is larger than that of pound. (2) The stability of euro exchange rates has made progress in recent years, which is accomplished by the decreases in the jump innovations. This paper supports the arguments on the determinants of exchange rate stability claimed by Mundell (1998) and Mussa (2000).