Kernel-based calibration diagnostics for recession and inflation probability forecasts

A probabilistic forecast is the estimated probability with which a future event will occur. One interesting feature of such forecasts is their calibration, or the match between the predicted probabilities and the actual outcome probabilities. Calibration has been evaluated in the past by grouping probability forecasts into discrete categories. We show here that we can do this without discrete groupings; the kernel estimators that we use produce efficiency gains and smooth estimated curves relating the predicted and actual probabilities. We use such estimates to evaluate the empirical evidence on the calibration error in a number of economic applications, including the prediction of recessions and inflation, using both forecasts made and stored in real time and pseudo-forecasts made using the data vintage available at the forecast date. The outcomes are evaluated using both first-release outcome measures and subsequent revised data. We find substantial evidence of incorrect calibration in professional forecasts of recessions and inflation from the SPF, as well as in real-time inflation forecasts from a variety of output gap models.     

Forecasting elections in Turkey

This paper proposes a model for forecasting elections in Turkey. In doing so, this study is based on three theoretical premises: first, that the voters reward or punish parties according to their performances relative to the macroeconomic conditions; second, that the popularity of the political parties in Turkey are closely connected to their performances in local elections; and third, that the centre-periphery distinction affects the fortunes of the political parties in Turkey. The contribution of this analysis is the introduction of an explicit model on which can forecast the impact of economic and political variables on the elections in Turkey by using reliable, public and macro level data. Our findings show that the dynamics of the evaluation of political parties in Turkey follow a similar pattern to those of contemporary democracies, being driven by both economic and political factors.

“…why did AKP win? There cannot be a scientific and sociological explanation of this.”Özdemir ?nce, 17 August 2007, Hürriyet, emphasis added.

     

Quality assessment in a turbulent environment: The case of the stockfish industry

Quality assessment is frequently applied in business-to-business marketing. It is usually assumed that quality assessment builds on the use of “objective” rules and criteria, but this is not always true. In a longitudinal study it was found that an institutionalized practice of quality assessment was based on both “objective” product characteristics, as well as more subjective supply/demand considerations, making quality assessment much more complex than usually assumed. Theoretical and managerial implications are highlighted.     

The performance effect of organizational learning and market orientation

In recent decades an important set of articles on management has focused upon the marketing concept and the related construct of market orientation. The next challenge is to understand how this organizational orientation can be achieved and maintained. Using data from 451 companies and through structural equation models, this study considers that organizational learning represents the capacity of a company to move from a given situation to another desired situation of market orientation and performance. The results suggest that the influence of market orientation on performance is only significant when it is mediated by organizational learning. The results also indicate that organizational learning has a positive effect on performance.     

Does cooperation absorb complexity? Innovation networks and the speed and spread of complex technological innovation

A new technological paradigm which rewards cooperation in the innovation of complex technologies seems to have emerged in recent years. Global reach and greater innovation speed are said to be key benefits of network-based complex innovation. By bringing together multiple sources of knowledge and experience, networks of innovative firms and other organizations increasingly appear to be able to absorb the combination of spatial and temporal uncertainty. But what is the empirical evidence underpinning this new paradigm? Beyond case studies and the experience of individual researchers, what do we know about cooperation and the pace and place of complex innovations? Examination of available empirical research fails to confirm the theory that cooperation enhances either the globalization of innovation or its speed.     

A Scenario-Based Assessment Model—SBAM

Scenario generation methods have often been used by policy makers as an instrument to manage the uncertainty of the technological environment and to support the shaping of long-term technology policies. Although scenario generation methods are conceptually useful in the shaping of long-term technology policies, the literature suggests that there is a methodological gap between the two. In an effort to bridge this gap, the authors propose a Scenario-Based Assessment Model (SBAM). This work introduces the principles and methodological basics of the SBAM. Moreover, an example is given to illustrate how this model can be applied.     

A study of the motivations for the environmental transformation of companies

This paper studies the relationship between the environmental motivations or beliefs prevailing in a company and the kind of environmental transformation the company is undertaking. In this sense, we distinguish four types of motivations: ethical, productive, commercial, and relational; and three areas where environmental transformation is typically conducted: the management system, the operations system, and the commercial system. The links between all these elements are analysed over a sample of 186 manufacturing companies from three industrial sectors. The results reveal that each environmental transformation responds to the presence or the predominance of certain motivations or environmental beliefs within the company.     

Leveraging affiliations by marketing to and through associations

Associations offer a wide range of benefits to their members and thus offer a rich source for understanding relationship marketing practices. Yet, the marketing academic literature is devoid of any frameworks that help us understand the process of marketing to and through associations at the firm level. What are the appropriate dimension(s) of characterizing associations, and how might they be best classified? What are organizational factors that foster or hinder such characterizations, and, what are their consequences and implications?Based on literature review and field interviews with association executives and related exploratory research, we uncover “affinity strength,” or members' attachment to the association, as the key dimension distinguishing associations. We then test to determine antecedent factors (association systems characteristics) that foster or hinder affinity strength as well as its consequences and implications. The major study involved a survey of executives of a wide range of associations, selected from the Encyclopedia of Associations.Certain association systems characteristics do predict affinity strength. Also, affinity strength's relationship with some of the antecedents as well as consequential variables was shown to be stronger or weaker, contingent upon the type of association (i.e., Professional, Cause-based, Common Interest, or Demographic) being considered. Overall, however, attributes of associations (e.g., association systems and outcomes), rather than association types, were more critical in explaining several phenomena pertaining to marketing to and through associations.     

A game theoretic analysis of interactions between law abiding citizens and criminals with respect to ownership of guns

In this paper, it is recognized that there are criminals and law abiding citizens in any society, and that their decisions to own guns are based on rather different, through interdependent, motives. These ideas are used as a conceptual basis for a game theoretic model which is used to analyze one isolated interaction and two forms of repeated interactions. The Nash equilibrium is the main results in the static form of the game. It is concluded from the analysis of the dynamic forms that this equilibrium in globally stable. The presentation proceeds to the study of possible consequences of direct and indirect policy interventions regulating the proportion of law abiding citizens and of criminals that own guns. The paper concludes with some observations on the model's limitations and some suggestions for its improvement.     

Using supply chain management to leverage a firm's market orientation

Building supplier relationships and becoming more market oriented have similar building blocks and have similar effects. Strong supplier relationships tend to impact the firm's performance, in part, because the firm can respond to customer needs in a more timely fashion. Supplier relationships tend to be stronger in firms where there is cross-functional sharing of supplier and customer information. Market orientation is an organizational culture that focuses the company on generating market information, cross-functionally sharing that market information, and rapidly responding to that market information to positively impact the performance of the firm. This study explored whether the positive effects of strong supplier relationships are enhanced in market-oriented firms. Results support the notion that supplier relationships are one way of leveraging a firm's market orientation through improved customer responsiveness. Cross-functional sharing of information appears to be the link that ties market orientation and stronger supplier relationships together.