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991.
The purpose in this article is to evaluate the consistency between two measures of unemployment in a cross-country context.
We use the European Community Household Panel to identify unemployment at an individual level based as well on the ILO criteria
for being classified as unemployed as on the individual respondent reporting to be unemployed. This opens a unique opportunity
to compare unemployment measured in two different ways based on a cross European Union panel study covering the years 1994
to 2001. The two main questions addressed in this article are to which extent the two unemployment measures differ and whether
transition rates out of unemployment depend on which concept we use. Both questions are answered in the affirmative. The overall
conclusion is that it is important, especially in some of the EU countries, to include both measures of unemployment as guidelines
and indicators for policy. 相似文献
992.
This study investigates the increase in the labour force participation rate of women. We estimate a binary age–period–cohort
model for a sample of Dutch women born between 1925 and 1986. The results indicate that the increasing level of education
and the diminishing negative effect of children have played an important role. Moreover, we find important unobserved cohort
effects for pre-1955 generations, which is in line with results of studies on social norms. It is shown that the growth in
female participation is likely to slow down in the near future, as such cohort effects are not relevant for younger generations. 相似文献
993.
The traditional way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation and income on the trade balance has been to estimate the elasticity of trade volume to relative prices and income. The previous studies examine the problems associated with using aggregate data. The recent studies rely on bilateral data, yet another problem is that data for export and import prices are not available. Thus, this study proposes an alternative way of assessing the impact of currency depreciation by using the real exchange rate and the impact of income on bilateral trade. The models are applied between the EU and its major trading partners. Furthermore, the analysis includes the six major trading regions along side the eight major trading countries for 1980–2007, on the quarterly basis. This article uses the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach advocated by Pesaran and Pesaran (1997). Our results indicate a higher importance of income compared to the real exchange rate in defined bilateral export and import demand functions. In addition, the applied CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests confirm the stability of estimated coefficients in most cases. 相似文献
994.
The time-varying natural rate of interest and output and the implied medium-term inflation target for the US economy are estimated
over the period 1983–2005. The estimation is conducted within the New Keynesian framework using Bayesian and Kalman-filter
estimation techniques. With the model-consistent estimate of the output gap, we get a small weight on the backward-looking
component of the New Keynesian Phillips curve—similar to what is obtained in studies which use labor share of income as a
driver for inflation (e.g., Galí, Eur Econ Rev 45(7):1237–1270, 2001; Eur Econ Rev 47(4):759–760, 2003). The turning points
of the business cycle are nevertheless broadly consistent with those of CBO/NBER. We find considerable variation in the natural
rate of interest while the inflation target has been close to 2% over the last decade. 相似文献
995.
In this article, we propose a model selection approach for testing structural breaks in a semiparametric panel varying coefficient
model. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the proposed model selection approach performs well in finite sample settings. Applying
the method to an empirical data, we find evidence of structural breaks in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
(OECD) health expenditure data by allowing for income elasticity to be state (income)-dependent. The relationship between
health expenditure and income is subject to two types of structural changes: smooth changes over income and structural breaks
in the time dimension. The findings hold for both foreign exchange rate-converted and Purchasing Power Parity-converted expenditure
and GDP. 相似文献
996.
Jesse Russell 《Empirical Economics》2011,40(2):425-449
There have been a number of empirical attempts to account for variation in exchange rate regime choice, but these attempts point in several directions and are not made sense of easily. One reason for the differences among studies is that standard statistical techniques are unable to identify the nonlinear and contingent relationships among the factors that influence the choice of exchange rate regime. This article utilizes a statistical technique that reveals complex nonlinear interactions among variables. The analysis reveals that the influence of past inflation acts to condition the influence of labor market rigidity and that political stability plays a key role for both high and low inflation countries. 相似文献
997.
We study the channels parents use to make transfers to their children. First, we focus on the relationship between investments
in education and property transfers. Second, we turn to how property transfers are divided between inter vivos gifts and bequests. We use a Swedish dataset that is superior to previously used data as it contains information on both
gifts and inheritances received from parents. We estimate models for the probabilities of having university education, receiving
gifts, and receiving inheritances. In addition, we estimate models for gift and inheritance amounts. We find that the more
resources parents have, the higher the likelihood of transfers, and that the correlation between receiving inter vivos gifts and inheritances is very high. Finally, women are more likely to have university education and to receive gifts, and
daughters receive gifts of larger amounts than sons, although there are no differences in terms of inheritance. 相似文献
998.
This article evaluates various models’ predictive power for U.S. inflation rate using a simulated out-of-sample forecasting framework. The starting point is the traditional unemployment Phillips curve. We show that a factor Phillips curve model is superior to the traditional Phillips curve, and its performance is comparable to other factor models. We find that a factor AR model is superior to the factor Phillips curve model, and is the best bivariate or factor model at longer horizons. Finally, we investigate a New Keynesian Phillips curve model, and find that its forecasting performance dominates all other models at the longer horizons. 相似文献
999.
Andrew T. Young 《The Review of Austrian Economics》2011,24(1):19-28
Murphy et al. (2009) criticize Young’s (2005) test of Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) using US industry-level quarterly job reallocation data and the federal funds
rate as a monetary policy indicator. I argue that not only are Murphy et al.’s specific criticisms misguided; more importantly,
they all but completely rule out the type of empirical study that Young (2005) advocates: specifically, one that (1) is quantitative and distinguishes between statistical and economic significance and
(2) attempts to exploit a hypothesis that is both a prediction of ABCT and not a prediction of competing monetary theories of the cycle. I argue that empirical studies embodying (1) and (2) are critical
to ABCT as a research program. Furthermore, I review the existing econometric studies of ABCT from the last 10 years and conclude
that there is much room for improvement along these lines. 相似文献
1000.
Robert F. GarnettJr. 《The Review of Austrian Economics》2011,24(1):71-76
Peter Boettke (2007) argues that economists need not act pluralistically in order for pluralism to thrive in the marketplace of economic ideas.
From a market process perspective, Boettke sees intellectual diversity and openness as catallactic outputs, not inputs—emergent
by-products of academic specialization and trade. To expect individual scholars to behave in a pluralistic manner is unnecessary
and “completely inappropriate” since it detracts from their central task: “to commit themselves to an approach and pursue
it doggedly, even in the face of great doubt and resistance by one’s peers” (Boettke 2007). This paper proposes a Smithian revision of Boettke’s position. The author argues that scholarly pluralism is best understood
as a constitutional rule of academic life—a virtue ethic that promotes learning and intellectual freedom by mitigating tyranny
and autarky in the republic of science. Drawing from the writings of Adam Smith, Friedrich Hayek, Deirdre McCloskey, Bruce
Caldwell, James Buchanan, Don Lavoie, and Boettke himself, the author argues that scholarly pluralism has been, and continues
to be, a necessary condition for the flourishing of Austrian economists as free, responsible, efficacious thinkers. 相似文献