Reserve risk estimation in a linear model

This paper presents the linear model, a framework for stochastic modeling of known methods as well as for the development of new methods of loss reserving. The linear model allows the determination of optimal predictors of non-observable cumulated and incremental losses and thus the derivation of optimal reserves by minimization of the expected squared prediction error.     

Capital liberalization and the US external imbalance

Differences in financial systems are often named as a prime candidate for the current state of global imbalances. This paper focuses on cross-country heterogeneity in access to international financial markets that derives from the presence of capital controls and argues that the process of capital liberalization over the past decades can explain a substantial fraction of US net external liabilities. We present a simple two-country model with an internationally traded bond, in which capital controls are reflected in the presence of borrowing and lending constraints on that bond. In a US versus the rest of the world (RoW) scenario, we perform experiments that are largely consistent with countries' liberalization experiences. A reduction in the RoW's controls on capital outflows and/or a tightening in the RoW's borrowing constraint enable the US economy to better insure against consumption risk relative to the rest of the world, and therefore decrease its motives for precautionary asset holdings relative to the rest of the world. As a result of these asymmetric shifts in countries' barriers to capital mobility, the US runs a long run external deficit.     

The amenity value of climate to households in Germany

Despite the importance of as comprehensive as possible damagecost estimates to cost benefit analyses of global attempts toreduce greenhouse gas emissions, few researchers have attemptedto monetize the direct impact of climate change on households.This study uses the hedonic technique to measure the amenityvalue of the climate to German households. Evidence suggeststhat the amenity value of climate variables is capitalized mainlyinto hedonic house price differentials. Overall, German householdsappear to prefer warmer winters with less rainfall. Combiningestimates of amenity values with the predicted changes in climateassociated with the IPCC's A2 emissions scenario we find thatthe overall impact of climate change on German households, whilstnegative, is typically not statistically different from zero.This occurs in part because the prediction is for warmer butwetter winters and also because the amenity value of some climatevariables cannot be measured with sufficient precision.     

Searching for the Fed’s reaction function

There is still some doubt about those economic variables that really matter for the Fed’s decisions. In comparison with other estimations, this study uses the approach of Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The estimations show that over the long-run inflation, unemployment rates and long-term interest rates are the crucial variables in explaining the Federal Funds Rate. In the other two estimation samples, also the fiscal deficit and monetary aggregates were of relevance. There is also evidence for interest rate smoothing. In addition, we account for parameter instability by combining BMA with time-varying coefficient (TVC) modelling. We find strong evidence for structural breaks. Finally, a model average is constructed via an TVC-BMA approach.     

Consumers' mood states: The mitigating influence of personal relevance on product evaluations

This article reports the results of two studies where subjects' mood states (good, bad) were manipulated. In keeping with previous findings, subjects' evaluations were biased by their mood state. As predicted, however, this bias was only discernible when the product evaluation was perceived to be relatively unimportant. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Introducing Instruments of Central Bank Accountability in a Monetary Union

With an increasing number of independent central banks, accountability of central banks is also getting more attention. This paper analyses the possibility of introducing instruments of central bank accountability in a monetary union. In our model, monetary policy is influenced by the governments of the member states according to the degree of independence granted to the central bank. Instruments of democratic accountability are introduced which generate different expected losses for a government. The amount of the expected loss will determine the approval of a government to the implementation of a particular mechanism. We show that the agreement between the governments will only be unanimous for the definition of the inflation target of the central bank.

An estimated two-country DSGE model of Austria and the Euro Area

We present a two-country New Open Economy Macro model of the Austrian economy within the European Union’s Economic & Monetary Union (EMU). The model includes both nominal and real frictions that have proven to be important in matching business cycle facts, and that allow for an investigation of the effects and cross-country transmission of a number of structural shocks: shocks to technologies, shocks to preferences, cost-push type shocks and policy shocks. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods on quarterly data covering the period of 1976:Q2–2005:Q1. In addition to the assessment of the relative importance of various shocks, the model also allows to investigate effects of the monetary regime switch with the final stage of the EMU and investigates in how far this has altered macroeconomic transmission. We find that Austria’s economy appears to react stronger to demand shocks, while in the rest of the Euro Area supply shocks have a stronger impact. Comparing the estimations on pre-EMU and EMU subsamples we find that the contribution of (rest of the) Euro Area shocks to Austria’s business cycle fluctuations has increased significantly.

Triggers of HR outsourcing decisions – an empirical analysis of German firms

This paper takes an explanatory approach to the triggers of Human Resource (HR) outsourcing decisions and evaluates them empirically. Our data show that many German firms have never explicitly considered outsourcing of HR functions. Obviously, explicit outsourcing decisions do not come into being automatically but have to be triggered. We analyze theoretically and empirically which triggers are relevant. In our definition, HR outsourcing includes a broad range of internal HR functions and the respective, externally procured personnel services (e.g., temporary agency work, payroll accounting, interim management, outplacement services, HR consulting, placement services and others).