Searching for the Fed’s reaction function

There is still some doubt about those economic variables that really matter for the Fed’s decisions. In comparison with other estimations, this study uses the approach of Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The estimations show that over the long-run inflation, unemployment rates and long-term interest rates are the crucial variables in explaining the Federal Funds Rate. In the other two estimation samples, also the fiscal deficit and monetary aggregates were of relevance. There is also evidence for interest rate smoothing. In addition, we account for parameter instability by combining BMA with time-varying coefficient (TVC) modelling. We find strong evidence for structural breaks. Finally, a model average is constructed via an TVC-BMA approach.     

Consumers' mood states: The mitigating influence of personal relevance on product evaluations

This article reports the results of two studies where subjects' mood states (good, bad) were manipulated. In keeping with previous findings, subjects' evaluations were biased by their mood state. As predicted, however, this bias was only discernible when the product evaluation was perceived to be relatively unimportant. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Introducing Instruments of Central Bank Accountability in a Monetary Union

With an increasing number of independent central banks, accountability of central banks is also getting more attention. This paper analyses the possibility of introducing instruments of central bank accountability in a monetary union. In our model, monetary policy is influenced by the governments of the member states according to the degree of independence granted to the central bank. Instruments of democratic accountability are introduced which generate different expected losses for a government. The amount of the expected loss will determine the approval of a government to the implementation of a particular mechanism. We show that the agreement between the governments will only be unanimous for the definition of the inflation target of the central bank.

An estimated two-country DSGE model of Austria and the Euro Area

We present a two-country New Open Economy Macro model of the Austrian economy within the European Union’s Economic & Monetary Union (EMU). The model includes both nominal and real frictions that have proven to be important in matching business cycle facts, and that allow for an investigation of the effects and cross-country transmission of a number of structural shocks: shocks to technologies, shocks to preferences, cost-push type shocks and policy shocks. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods on quarterly data covering the period of 1976:Q2–2005:Q1. In addition to the assessment of the relative importance of various shocks, the model also allows to investigate effects of the monetary regime switch with the final stage of the EMU and investigates in how far this has altered macroeconomic transmission. We find that Austria’s economy appears to react stronger to demand shocks, while in the rest of the Euro Area supply shocks have a stronger impact. Comparing the estimations on pre-EMU and EMU subsamples we find that the contribution of (rest of the) Euro Area shocks to Austria’s business cycle fluctuations has increased significantly.

Triggers of HR outsourcing decisions – an empirical analysis of German firms

This paper takes an explanatory approach to the triggers of Human Resource (HR) outsourcing decisions and evaluates them empirically. Our data show that many German firms have never explicitly considered outsourcing of HR functions. Obviously, explicit outsourcing decisions do not come into being automatically but have to be triggered. We analyze theoretically and empirically which triggers are relevant. In our definition, HR outsourcing includes a broad range of internal HR functions and the respective, externally procured personnel services (e.g., temporary agency work, payroll accounting, interim management, outplacement services, HR consulting, placement services and others).     

The impact of climate on life satisfaction

We analyse the influence of climate on average life satisfaction in 79 countries using data from the World Values Survey. Climate is described in terms of ‘degree-months’ calculated as the cumulated monthly deviations from a base temperature of 65 °F (18.3 °C). Our results suggest that countries with climates characterised by a large number of degree-months enjoy significantly lower levels of life satisfaction. This finding is robust to a wide variety of model specifications. Using our results to analyse a particular climate change scenario associated with the IPCC A2 emissions scenario points to major losses for African countries, but modest gains for Northern Europe.     

Humankapital deutscher Fußballmanager

Based on the human-capital-theory we analyse the effects of managers’ characteristics on the sportive success of soccer-clubs. Relevant characteristics are a previous career as a player or trainer, an apprenticeship or academic study and the work experience as a manager. Over the last twenty years the proportion of managers with an economic education doubled. This general human capital affects success less complementarily than as a substitutive for sector- or club-specific human capital in terms of a previous career as a player. The work experience as a manager correlates positively with the teams’ league ranking. These results allow recommendations for recruiting new managers.     

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