Water scarcity and the impact of improved irrigation management: a computable general equilibrium analysis

Increasing water scarcity combined with an increasing demand for food and water for irrigation call for a careful revision of water use in agriculture. Currently, less than 60% of all the water used for irrigation is effectively used by crops. Based on the new version of the GTAP‐W model we analyze the effect of potential water savings and the welfare implications of improvements in irrigation efficiency worldwide. The results show that a water policy directed to improve irrigation efficiency led to global and regional water savings, but it is not beneficial for all regions. The final effect on regional welfare will depend on the interaction of several different causes. For instance, higher irrigation efficiency changes opportunity costs and reverses comparative advantages, modifying regional trade patterns and welfare. For water‐stressed regions the effects on welfare are mostly positive. For nonwater scarce regions the results are more mixed and mostly negative. The results show that exports of virtual water are not exclusive of water abundant regions.     

Export Behavior and Firm Productivity in German Manufacturing: A Firm-Level Analysis

This paper examines the causal relationship between productivity and exporting in German manufacturing. We find a causal link from high productivity to presence in foreign markets, as postulated by a recent literature on international trade with heterogeneous firms. We apply a matching technique in order to analyze whether the presence in international markets enables firms to achieve further productivity improvements, without finding significant evidence for this. We conclude that high-productivity firms self-select themselves into export markets, while exporting itself does not play a significant role for the productivity of German firms. JEL no. F10, F13, F14, D21, L60     

The Stability of European Money Demand: An Investigation of M3H

The paper assesses the stability and predictive performance of a European money demand function as compared to national money demand functions. With respect to the explanatory accuracy, the national functions perform better than the aggregated function. Examination of the residuals of the national money demand equations indicates that currency substitution is not the major cause for the stability of the aggregated money demand function. The aggregate relation mainly seems to reflect German money demand. This conclusion is supported by the instability of aggregated money demand resulting from the exclusion of Germany from the aggregate.     

Window on Eastern Europe

Commercial cooperation between transBaltic neighbours Denmark and Poland is thriving, yet relationships between business people in the two countries are not always easy as a consequence of differing cultural histories and misunderstandings. The author is Associate Professor in the Department of Intercultural Communication and Management in Copenhagen Business School, Dalgas Have 15, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark.     

How does(n't) Urban Shrinkage get onto the Agenda? Experiences from Leipzig,Liverpool, Genoa and Bytom

This article discusses the question of how urban shrinkage gets onto the agenda of public‐policy agencies. It is based on a comparison of the agenda‐setting histories of four European cities, Liverpool (UK), Leipzig (Germany), Genoa (Italy) and Bytom (Poland), which have all experienced severe population losses but show very different histories with respect to how local governments reacted to them. We use the political‐science concepts of ‘systemic vs. institutional agendas’ and ‘policy windows’ as a conceptual frame to compare these experiences. The article demonstrates that shrinkage is hardly ever responded to in a comprehensive manner but rather that policies are only implemented in a piecemeal way in selected fields. Moreover, it is argued that variations in institutional contexts and political dynamics lead to considerable differences with regard to the chances of making shrinkage a matter of public intervention. Against this background, the article takes issue with the idea that urban shrinkage only needs to be ‘accepted’ by policymakers who would need to overcome their growth‐oriented cultural perceptions, as has been suggested in a number of recent writings, and calls for a more differentiated, context‐sensitive view.     

Comprehensive Support for Creativity-Intensive Processes

Creativity is an important precondition of innovation. However, the management of creativity-intensive processes (CIPs) is beyond the scope of standard methodologies for business process standardization and automation because of the contradictory properties of CIPs, which require both process structure and creative freedom. We develop an explanatory design theory based on theoretical constructs from BPM theory, creativity research, and collaboration engineering, with the core component of an integrated IS architecture that facilitates the design of systems providing comprehensive support for CIPs. Automated control of structured processes and support of idea development in groups increase process efficiency and creative performance. Evaluation of a sub-portion of an expository instantiation (CreativeFlow) of the architecture in a laboratory experiment suggests that working with CreativeFlow leads to ideas that are more specific, while working without the tool generates ideas that are more feasible. Further, idea evaluation support of CreativeFlow must be improved in order to increase ideas’ feasibility and relevance. The validity of our theory is derived from a deductive development approach. We indicate limitations and further research.     

Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index

One criticism of Vector Autoregression (VAR) forecasting is that macroeconomic variables tend not to behave as linear functions of their own past around business cycle turning points. A large amount of literature therefore focuses on nonlinear forecasting models, such as Markov switching models, which only indirectly capture the relation with turning points. This article investigates a direct approach to using information on turning points from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) chronology to model and forecast macroeconomic data. Our Qual VAR model includes a truncated normal latent business cycle index that is negative during NBER recessions and positive during expansions. We motivate our forecasting exercise by demonstrating that if starting from a linear specification, a truncated normal variable is an omitted variable, then forecasts of the remaining variables will become nonlinear functions of their own past. We apply the Qual VAR model to recursive out-of-sample forecasting and find that the Qual VAR improves on out-of-sample forecasts from a standard VAR.     

Tourism in India: Policy pitfalls

Tourism destination marketing is now widely recognized as an essential component in the management of destinations. In harmony with the general marketing literature, which understands marketing as a management tool, some researchers understand destination marketing as a form of ‘market-oriented strategic planning’ and hence as a strategic approach to place development rather than a promotional tool. Based on the results of a case study of tourism destination marketing in the Nelson/Tasman Region, New Zealand, this article examines the suitability of tourism destination marketing as a tool and of Destination Marketing Organizations (DMO) as a vehicle for tourism destination management and development. A discussion of several difficulties in the implementation of tourism destination marketing in Nelson/Tasman Region leads to the conclusion that DMOs are unlikely to be able to claim too much responsibility for destination management but that they can play an important part in the management of the destination product.