Trade with China: do the figures add up?

There are wide discrepancies in bilateral trade data compiled by China and by its trading partners, particularly the United States. This paper investigates the main reasons, notably the role of Hong Kong as an entrepôt, and develops a methodology to provide more accurate estimates for these trade flows. It extends the Sung—Lardy method in recent literature and achieves a reconciliation of the two data sets by China and by its major partners. The method recognizes that both the Chinese and the partners' data are likely to be distorted and demonstrates that a complete picture can he constructed by using data recorded from Hong Kong. A new estimate of the re-export margins in Hong Kong on Chinese exports is presented and used in the data reconciliation exercises, and problems of valuation and transit lag when comparing an export series with its counterpart import series are taken into account by the new method. The effects of using proved data are demonstrated in an application to examine fair market access in China—US bilateral trade undertaken by Tower (1993).     

The effects of (incentivized) belief elicitation in public goods experiments

Belief elicitation is an important methodological issue for experimental economists. There are two generic questions: 1) Do incentives increase belief accuracy? 2) Are there interaction effects of beliefs and decisions? We investigate these questions in the case of finitely repeated public goods experiments. We find that belief accuracy is significantly higher when beliefs are incentivized. The relationship between contributions and beliefs is slightly steeper under incentives. However, we find that incentivized beliefs tend to lead to higher contribution levels than either non-incentivized beliefs or no beliefs at all. We discuss the implications of our results for the design of public good experiments.     

Household Adoption of Water-Efficient Equipment: The Role of Socio-Economic Factors,Environmental Attitudes and Policy

Using survey data of around 10,000 households from 10 OECD countries, we identify the driving factors of household adoption of water-efficient equipment by estimating Probit models of a household’s probability to invest in such equipment. The results indicate that environmental attitudes and ownership status are strong predictors of adoption of water-efficient equipment. In terms of policy, we find that households that were both metered and charged for their water individually had a much higher probability to invest in water-efficient equipment compared to households that paid a flat fee.     

Bounds analysis of competing risks: a non-parametric evaluation of the effect of unemployment benefits on migration

By reexamining the effect of unemployment benefits on reemployment probabilities we make two contributions to the literature: first, we estimate separate effects for reemployment in the local or a distant region. Second, we address the problem of incomplete duration within a competing risks model. Our results confirm that missing data problems at first preclude any meaningful result even though we have access to daily individual data on 50 % of the male workforce in Germany. When we impose additional assumptions, we obtain evidence that the treatment effect depends on the household context, the treatment intensity and the destination state.     

Heterogeneous returns to personality: the role of occupational choice

We analyze the role of personality in occupational choice and wages using data from Germany for the years 1992 to 2009. Characterizing personality by use of seven complementary measures (Big Five personality traits, locus of control, and a measure of reciprocity), the empirical findings show that personal characteristics are important determinants of occupational choice. Associated with that, identical personality traits are differently rewarded across occupations. Hence, breaking down the analysis on the level of occupational groups provides more detailed results of returns to personality. By evaluating different personality profiles, we additionally estimate the influence of personality as a whole. The estimates establish occupation-specific patterns of significant returns to particular personality profiles. These findings underline the importance to consider the occupational distribution when analyzing returns to personality due to its heterogeneous valuation.     

PRIOR ELICITATION IN MULTIPLE CHANGE‐POINT MODELS*

This article discusses Bayesian inference in change‐point models. The main existing approaches treat all change‐points equally, a priori, using either a Uniform prior or an informative hierarchical prior. Both approaches assume a known number of change‐points. Some undesirable properties of these approaches are discussed. We develop a new Uniform prior that allows some of the change‐points to occur out of sample. This prior has desirable properties, can be interpreted as “noninformative,” and treats the number of change‐points as unknown. Artificial and real data exercises show how these different priors can have a substantial impact on estimation and prediction.     

The Reallocation of Labour and the Lifecycle of Firms

This paper uses a unique US panel dataset of firms and workers toinvestigate the relationship between the firm's lifecycle and the reallocation of labour. We distinguish labour reallocation associated with job reallocation, and reallocation of workers over a fixed configuration of jobs. We find that firms at the beginning and end of their lifecycles contribute disproportionately to labour market lows, with sorting between firms particularly important among young firms, whereas sorting within firms is moreimportant among mature firms. We also find that high churning lows are associated with a lower probability of a young firm surviving.