Remittances and the Dutch Disease: Evidence from Panel Data for 18 Developing Countries

In this paper, using the GMM technique we attempt to empirically investigate the Dutch disease effect of remittances. The analyses are based on an annual balanced panel data set for 18 developing countries, which have remittances to GDP ratio of 5 percent and above, over the years 1999–2015. It is found that an inflow of remittances has a positive effect on economic growth, whereas it leads to a depreciation of the real effective exchange rate.     

Retrospective on the Bubble Period and its Relationship to Developments in the 1990s

In reviewing what happened in the 1980s in Japan and how the bursting of the bubble created problems in the early 1990s, the following conclusions are obtained. (1) In order to limit damage to the economy from a bubble and its bursting, it is important to build a resilient financial system through strict supervision policy, so that asset‐price fluctuations would not weaken financial institutions. Supervision policy would include regulatory measures limiting lending concentration and exposure to real‐estate‐related sectors. (2) Monetary policy should pay attention to asset‐price movements. But it may be difficult and inappropriate to raise the interest rate sharply when inflation is low (below one per cent like in Japan), even though asset prices are increasing at 30–40 per cent. (3) The official discount rate could have been raised in the summer of 1988 in Japan, when the Federal Reserve and Bundesbank raised interest rates. This would have slowed down the rise of stock and land prices, but the bubble was already large by then. (4) The bubble in the second half of the 1980s was only partially responsible for the lost decade of the 1990s in Japan. A series of policy errors made a small problem of the burst bubble much bigger than necessary.     

Changing International Financial Architecture: Growing Chinese Influence?

It is often said that the 21st century will be the Asian century. Based on population and gross domestic product projections, it certainly looks as if this will be so. Will the existing international financial institutions give more voices, votes, and top positions to Asia? Or will Asia create its own institutions that would rival the old architecture? This present paper argues, first, that China, and possibly India, will be in a position to be so influential that the international financial architecture may have to go through significant changes. Second, the three large crises in the last 20 years have made Asian countries more confident that they can manage capital flows by accumulating large foreign reserves and by adopting sound macrofinancial policies. After 2009, China started to push various initiatives that will amount to creating its own sphere of influence with new regional institutions in the future.     

A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis of International Reserves

Using data from more than 100 economies for the period of 1975 to 2005, we conduct an extensive empirical analysis of the determinants of international reserve holdings. Four groups of determinants, namely, traditional macro variables, financial variables, institutional variables, and dummy variables that control for individual economies’ characteristics are considered. We find that the relationship between international reserves and their determinants is significantly different between developed and developing economies and is not stable over time. The estimation results indicate that, especially during the recent period, a developed economy tends to hold a lower level of international reserves than a developing one. Furthermore, there is only limited evidence that East Asian economies including China and Japan are accumulating an excessive amount of international reserves.     

Is the Sky the Limit? Can Japanese Government Bonds Continue to Defy Gravity?

This paper presents a simulation model based on the growth rate, the inflation rate, and the consumption tax rate in the future. Future tax revenues and fiscal expenditures are projected using regression models estimated from past data. The fiscal situation is called unsustainable if the outstanding amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) becomes higher than the level of private sector financial assets. We focus on the general account of the central government, which is the source of JGB issues. We find that the higher the economic growth, the more likely it is that the fiscal situation is sustainable. When a larger portion of interest income is reinvested in JGBs, the chance is higher that the fiscal situation is sustainable. Most importantly, raising the consumption tax to 20% guarantees fiscal sustainability in most cases. Our analysis shows that without a consumption tax hike beyond the 10% rate, a fiscal crisis will be almost a certainty, even with a real economic growth rate of 2% despite a shrinking labor force. A reasonably quick hike of the consumption tax, namely a hike by 1% a year, up to 20%, combined with high or moderate economic growth rates, seems to keep the economy out of a fiscal crisis, where a moderate growth rate is defined to be generated by a productivity increase per working‐age population of 1.9%, which was the average during the Koizumi years.     

Capability building through innovation for unserved lower end mega markets

Although product innovation for unserved lower end mega markets in large developing countries has been recognized as an opportunity for improving the competitiveness of local firms, limited research has been conducted that explicitly explores how innovation capabilities can be built for these markets. This study investigates Tata Motors' Nano as an exploratory case of building innovation capabilities. This paper shows that the building of innovation capability could be achieved through creating a process that overcomes ‘the deficiency problem’ in generating radically cheap priced original products.The study's contribution to the literature is that it addresses issues of building local firms' innovation capabilities through creating original products for the unserved lower end market, in which advanced country firms have limited experience.Nano, as an unprecedented innovation in the automobile industry, reveals a path to building innovation capability that has not previously been observed. We show that detailed processes involved in generating an original product for the lower end market provide insights on the strategy in terms of target price setting, initiating innovation process overcoming ‘the deficiency problem’, and creation of complementary resources.     

The futures premium and rice market efficiency in prewar Japan

This article studies the interrelation between spot and futures prices in the two major rice markets in prewar Japan from the perspective of market efficiency. Applying a non‐Bayesian time‐varying model approach to the fundamental equation for spot returns and the futures premium, we detect when efficiency reductions in the two major rice markets occurred. We also examine how government interventions affected the rice markets in Japan, which colonized Taiwan and Korea before the Second World War, and argue that the function of rice futures markets crucially depended on the differences in the structure of rice spot markets. Initially the increased volume of imported rice of a different variety from domestic rice disrupted the rice futures markets. Then, government intervention in the rice futures markets failed to improve the disruption. Changes in colonial rice cropping successfully mitigated the disruption, and colonial rice was promoted in order to unify the different varieties of inland and colonial rice.