Comparisons of aggregate claim numbers and amounts: a study of heterogeneity

In this paper, we investigate how the heterogeneity among occurrence probabilities and claim severities affects the aggregate claim numbers and aggregate claim amount for an insurance portfolio. We show that higher heterogeneity (and dependence) among occurrence probabilities results in both smaller aggregate claim numbers and aggregate claim amount in the sense of the mean residual lifetime order. We also prove that as the heterogeneity among the claims increases, the aggregate claim amount increases in the sense of the usual stochastic order when the vector of occurrence probabilities is left tail weakly stochastic arrangement increasing. These theoretical findings are applied to (i) study ordering properties of convolutions of binomial random variables, (ii) provide upper bounds for the mean residual lifetime functions of the aggregate claim numbers and amount, and (iii) compare stop-loss premiums and risk capital of different insurance portfolios.     

On a Recent Naturalism Debate in Business Ethics – from a Philosophy Point of View

The article discusses the meaning of consciousness and presents a collective consciousness view of business organizations and their development. It proposes an integrative hierarchical framework of three levels of organizational consciousness: material, social and spiritual. The concepts of excellence, ethical and moral temperament of organizations at different levels of consciousness are also discussed. The article describes the features of social and spiritually conscious business organizations, taking some examples from secondary sources. Overall, it is an attempt to link the ideals of human evolution with the potential behaviour of business corporations. Ashish Pandey is leading research function at Pragati Leadership Institute, 301, Beaver Grandeur, Baner road, Pune, India. He is also scholar of Fellow Program in Management with Management Development Institute, (M.D.I.) Gurgaon. Rajen K. Gupta is Professor of OD with M.D.I., Gurgaon. He is an OD consultant, alumnus of Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur and holds doctoral degree from Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, India. Earlier version of the paper titled “Organization Development as Evolution of Collective Consciousness of Business Organization” was presented in the Global OD Summit, 2006, at Mysore, India and was adjudged the best paper in ‘Future-focus’ stream.     

Tunneling and propping up: An analysis of related party transactions by Chinese listed companies

We examine a sample of related party transactions between Chinese publicly listed firms and their controlling shareholders during 2001–2002. Minority shareholders in these firms seem to be subject to expropriation through tunneling but also gain from propping up. On balance, there seems to be more tunneling than propping up. Both types of firms have larger state ownership compared to the rest of the Chinese market but firms that are propped up are larger and have larger state ownership than firms subject to tunneling. Propped up firms are more likely to have foreign shareholders and to be cross-listed abroad compared to firms that are subject to tunneling. Propped up firms also tend to have worse operating performance in the fiscal year preceding the announcement of the related party transaction. Finally, we find that related party transactions representing tunneling are accompanied by significantly less information disclosure compared to related party transactions representing propping.     

A Note on the Power of Money-Output Causality Tests

This study suggests that some empirical findings against money-output causality can be the consequence of ignoring autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) errors. Monte Carlo results confirm that ARCH effects drastically reduce the power of the standard causality test. The maximum likelihood approach allowing for ARCH effects, on the other hand, provides a good power performance. Using different specifications and sample period, Friedman and Kuttner (1993) and Thomas (1994) report limited evidence of money causing output. We detect significant ARCH effects in the models considered by these studies. Once ARCH effects are explicitly accounted for, we find that the monetary effect is significant though its magnitude is quite small.     

The profitability of index futures arbitrage: Evidence from bid-ask quotes

Previous studies investigated the profitability of stock index futures based on transaction price data, and could overstate the frequency of arbitrage opportunities and size of arbitrage profits. This article obtains a data base for the Hong Kong index futures and index options market that contains both real-time transaction prices and bid-ask quotes; the article further examines the bias of identifying arbitrage opportunities based on transaction prices. The article finds the percentage of observations violating no-arbitrage bounds is significantly reduced when bid-ask quotes are employed instead of transaction prices. This suggests studies that implement arbitrage strategies based on transaction prices employ prices from the wrong side of the spread. This article finds a relationship between the frequency of violations (evaluated from transaction prices) and the size of bid-ask spreads in the futures and options markets. This phenomenon indicates that a larger mispricing, which may arise when the bid-ask spread is wider, does not necessarily imply profitable arbitrage opportunity. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 18:743–763, 1998     

The effect of organizational responses to service failures on customer satisfaction perception

This paper explores how organizational responses to service failures affect perceived justice and recovery satisfaction using responses from 410 customers who experienced service failures in Hong Kong. The results indicated that the acknowledgement of and prompt action to fix service failures were positively linked to perceived justice, which in turn affects recovery satisfaction. Moreover, customer relation orientation moderated the relationship between acknowledgement of service failure and justice perceptions of service recovery, while customer task orientation moderated the relationship between prompt action for service recovery and justice perceptions of that recovery.     

全球气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的预测

本文是William W.L.Cheung等发表于2009年出版的<鱼类与渔业>1-17页"全球气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的预测"一文的译文.译文作者阐述了通过气候变化可以对海洋生物多样性产生影响,改变鱼类品种.但是,气候变化对海洋生物多样性影响的研究目前在全球范围还寥寥无几.本文以1066个生物鱼类和无脊椎动物的分布范围为例,应用最新的生物气候分室模型,预测了截至2050年伞球气候变化对海洋生物多样性的影响.预测表明,在近极地、热带半封闭海域,气候变化可能导致大量土著晶种消失.同时,外来品种侵入,尤其在南、北极海域侵入程度更大.这导致现有生物多样体中60%的品种发生戏剧性变化,这将意味着生态系统被潜在破坏而导致生态失调.这些预测町以成为未来分析研究的假设.     

Hoarding of international reserves: It's a neighbourly day in Asia

To explain why Asian countries seem to have been hoarding international reserves, especially since the 1997 crisis, we consider various regional neighbourhood effects. One such effect is that of “catching up with the Joneses”. We revisit that effect by analysing several refinements of it. We also consider the fear of the kind of contagion that the crisis‐hit countries saw in 1997. Finally, we look at the possibility of a regional financial cycle, in which the conditions that led to the crisis might have been correlated across countries. We find that refining the Joneses effect to take account of trade links strengthens its power to explain the build‐up of reserves. We also observe that a country that finds itself more vulnerable than its regional neighbours would tend to accumulate more reserves. Finally, we find that a common regional factor related to current‐account balances spurs further reserve accumulation. Contrary to previous analyses, our results suggest that only a couple of Asian countries have been holding excessive reserves. Some were actually holding less reserves than would be optimal in the presence of neighbourhood effects.