Vulnerability to a Currency Crisis: Lessons from the Asian Experience

Are currency crises caused by manias and panics in financial markets, or by unsustainable deteriorations in domestic macroeconomic conditions? This question is explored in the context of the recent Asian currency crisis. The theoretical concept of vulnerability is used to identify three early‐warning indicators of susceptibility to a currency crisis: rapid accumulation of mobile capital; domestic lending booms; and overvalued exchange rates. It is shown that the crisis and noncrisis countries of Asia may be distinguished empirically, using these indicators, over the decade preceding the crisis. This exercise provides convincing evidence that the crisis emanated largely from domestic macroeconomic conditions.     

What moves the gold market?

In this article, we provide a detailed characterization of the intraday return volatility in gold futures contracts traded on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The approach allows the study of intraday patterns, interday ARCH effects, and announcement effects in a coherent framework. We show that the intraday patterns exert a profound impact on the dynamics of return volatility. Among the 23 U.S. macroeconomic announcements, we identify employment reports, gross domestic product, consumer price index, and personal income as having the greatest impact. Finally, by appropriately filtering out the intraday patterns, we find that the high‐frequency returns reveal long‐memory volatility dependencies in the gold market, which have important implications on the pricing of long‐term gold options and the determination of optimal hedge ratios. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:257–278, 2001     

Minorities in Children's Television Commercials: New,Improved, and Stereotyped

Mass media is one means by which consumers learn how to behave as consumers. Consumers’ beliefs about minorities as consumers are also influenced by mass media, and the impact is likely highest among young children. A content analysis of 813 commercials in children's television programming reveals that while Caucasians continue to be the predominant models in terms of numbers and in the types of roles they play, the numerical representation of minorities, especially Blacks, has improved. However, the study found that minorities are more likely than Caucasians to have minor roles and to be portrayed in certain product categories, settings, and relationships. Societal impacts and implications for minority consumers are discussed.     

Timing,order and durability of new product advantages with imitation

This research examined the effects of timing, order and the durability of first mover advantages by analyzing the stock market reactions to new product introductions and imitations. The major findings are that both timing and order of moves are important and that rival reactions undermine the durability of first mover advantages. More specifically, (1) early and fast movers achieve greater gains than late and slow movers, and (2) first movers suffer at the time of new product imitations. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incapability of Technological Capability: A Case Study on Product Innovation in the Japanese Facsimile Machine Industry

Technological leadership in an industry certainly seems like a ticket to ongoing success. However, overemphasis on existing technological capabilities may produce a form of myopia in product development. In other words, by focusing primarily on developing and improving their core technologies, organizations miss opportunities to exploit new technologies and thus create breakthrough products. Ken Kusunoki proposes that problem-solving approaches in a technologically leading firm paradoxically may impede radical product innovation. Suggesting that such firms are inherently oriented toward incremental innovation, he presents a conceptual framework of the dynamic interaction between technological and product development problem-solving in the context of product innovation. He then illustrates this conceptual framework by examining a case of radical innovation in the Japanese facsimile industry. For a technological leader, product innovation typically is driven by technology development. In other words, such a firm quite reasonably relies on the technological advantage it holds over competitors as the basis for its product developments. By refining and enhancing its industry-leading technological capabilities, the firm can successfully introduce incremental innovations in its products. Because of this strong emphasis on exploiting existing technological capabilities, however, the technological leader may fail to capitalize on new technologies that can produce radical innovations. In the race to develop high-speed, digital facsimile equipment during the early 1970s, for example, Matsushita held a decided technological advantage over competitors such as Ricoh. Notwithstanding Matsushita's technological edge, however, Ricoh brought this radical innovation to market two years before Matsushita introduced its first digital machine, causing a serious decline in Matsushita's market share. Ricoh's approach to technological and product problem-solving—an autonomous team structure, with a strong project manager and frequent transfers of engineers among interdependent units—contrasts dramatically with Matsushita's functional structure and strong emphasis on technological problem-solving. Interestingly, Matsushita regained its technological advantage by 1976, thanks to a rapid series of incremental innovations in its product technologies.     

Optimal hedging of contingent exposure: the importance of a risk premium

The focus of this article is how a non‐zero risk premium affects an economic agent's optimal hedging decision when exposed to a nonmarketed event. The analysis is not confined to the optimal use of one particular hedging instrument, rather, the optimal payoff based on the agent's preferences is derived. We show, for various preferences, how the size of a risk premium affects the degree of nonlinearity in the optimal hedging instrument. This result is in contrast to known results for contingent exposure in the case of a zero risk premium. We demonstrate an inefficacy of the approach of confining the analysis to one particular hedging instrument in the case of standard exposure. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 20:823–841, 2000     

The New Game in Town: Competitive Effects of IPOs

We analyze the effect of initial public offerings (IPOs) on industry competitors and provide evidence that companies experience negative stock price reactions to completed IPOs in their industry and positive stock price reactions to their withdrawal. Following a successful IPO in their industry, they show significant deterioration in their operating performance. These results are consistent with the existence of IPO‐related competitive advantages through the loosening of financial constraints, financial intermediary certification, and the presence of knowledge capital. These aspects of competitiveness are significant in explaining the cross‐section of underperformance as well as survival probabilities for competing firms.     

Reconsidering the Relationship between Inflation and Relative Price Variability

It has long been popularly believed that the relationship between inflation and relative price variability (RPV) is positive and stable. Using disaggregated CPI data for the United States and Japan, however, this study finds that the relationship is neither linear nor stable over time. The overall relationship is approximately U‐shaped around a nonzero threshold inflation rate. RPV therefore changes not with the inflation rate per se, but with the deviation of inflation from the threshold inflation rate. More importantly, the relationship is by no means stable over time but instead varies significantly in a way that coincides with regime changes of inflation or monetary policy. The relationship was positive during the period of high inflation of the 1970s and the early 1980s, as has been documented by a number of previous studies, whereas it takes a U‐shape profile during the Great Moderation. The results are robust to the use of core inflation, which excludes the traditionally volatile prices of food and energy. This paper then presents a modified version of the Calvo‐type sticky price model to describe the observed empirical regularities. Simulation experiments show that the modified Calvo model fits the data well, and that the underlying relationship hinges upon the degree of price rigidity, which is systematically related to inflation regime. For countries and periods with low inflation rates, the relationship takes a U‐shape as price adjustment is more sticky. In a high‐inflation environment, when price setting becomes more flexible, the U‐shaped profile vanishes.