Profitability, Ownership Structure and Technical Efficiency of Enterprises in the People's Republic of China: A Case of Manufacturing Industries in Shanghai

This paper studies the relationship between accounting profits and technical efficiency of manufacturing enterprises in Shanghai during the period 1989–1992 and examines which factors affect the profitability of manufacturing enterprises. We first estimate the average technical efficiency of four major manufacturing industries in Shanghai. Then, we test for the presence of ownership effects of technical efficiency on profits of those enterprises in these four industries.     

Backtesting Stochastic Mortality Models

Abstract

This study sets out a backtesting framework applicable to the multiperiod-ahead forecasts from stochastic mortality models and uses it to evaluate the forecasting performance of six different stochastic mortality models applied to English & Welsh male mortality data. The models considered are the following: Lee-Carter’s 1992 one-factor model; a version of Renshaw-Haberman’s 2006 extension of the Lee-Carter model to allow for a cohort effect; the age-period-cohort model, which is a simplified version of Renshaw-Haberman; Cairns, Blake, and Dowd’s 2006 two-factor model; and two generalized versions of the last named with an added cohort effect. For the data set used herein, the results from applying this methodology suggest that the models perform adequately by most backtests and that prediction intervals that incorporate parameter uncertainty are wider than those that do not. We also find little difference between the performances of five of the models, but the remaining model shows considerable forecast instability.     

Has the IASB Been Successful in Making Accounting Earnings More Useful for Prediction and Valuation? UK Evidence

When producing International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), one of the main goals of the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) was to create a set of standards which were more useful to investors as a predictive tool. We assess the success of the IASB in achieving this goal by investigating the effects of the introduction of IFRS on the relative information content of reported earnings and forecasted earnings under UK generally accepted accounting practices (GAAP) and IFRS. Results indicate that the value relevance of forecasted earnings is significantly lower under IFRS while the value relevance of reported earnings is significantly larger. These findings suggest that IFRS substitutes price‐relevant information previously provided to the market in the form of analyst forecasts with information encoded by companies in their reported earnings. This implies that the IASB was indeed successful in its stated goal and points towards IFRS forecasts being more accurate and less dispersed than UK GAAP forecasts. This, in turn, implies that analysts are able to provide more informative forecasts under IFRS than under pre‐IFRS regimes and that the aforementioned substitution effect is not a consequence of any decrease in the quality of forecasts under the new regime.     

Union Density in Israel 1995–2010: The Hybridization of Industrial Relations

In the past the Israeli industrial relations system was corporatist, characterized by high levels of membership in trade unions and employers' associations, as well as broad coverage of collective agreements. The corporatist system gradually eroded from the mid‐1980s, but its major transformation came with the removal of the Ghent‐like system in 1995. The article observes data collected since the transformation, distinguishing between membership and coverage trends. These distinctions aid in revealing that a hybrid of two distinct industrial relations subsystems has developed. The notion of hybridization suggests that unlike past accounts, which described the substitution of the corporatist industrial relations system by a liberal‐pluralist system, what actually emerges is their coexistence. Despite the path‐determined nature of the Israeli hybrid, the interaction between coverage and membership is instructive for understanding strategic choices made in other European countries in which a similar gap emerged. The article notes the potential for synergy between the two subsystems and notes the actual development of rivalry and friction.     

Pricing Annuity Guarantees Under a Regime-Switching Model

Abstract

We consider the pricing problem of equity-linked annuities and variable annuities under a regimeswitching model when the dynamic of the market value of a reference asset is driven by a generalized geometric Brownian motion model with regime switching. In particular, we assume that regime switching over time according to a continuous-time Markov chain with a finite number state space representing economy states. We use the Esscher transform to determine an equivalent martingale measure for fair valuation in the incomplete market setting. The paper is complemented with some numerical examples to highlight the implications of our model on pricing these guarantees.     

Realisations of Venture Capital Investments: The Case of Management Buy-outs in the UK

One of the most rapidly developing sectors of the financial services industry in the UK has been venture capital, and with it the growth of management buy-outs. As these markets have matured, increasing attention is being paid to issues associated with the realisation of gains for both institutions and equity-holding management. This article seeks to contribute to this area by examining the issues involved in the realisation of investments in management buy-outs. Based on detailed interviews with 24 managers of buy-outs which have exited, and on information drawn from the Centre for Management Buy-out Research database, the article considers the relative merits of flotations, trade sales, capital restructurings, secondary buy-outs, share redemptions etc. The article also addresses the agency cost issues involved in controlling buy-outs to enable institutions to achieve realisation of their investments at a price and timing which enable their targets to be met.     

Bank Growth Choices and Changes in Market Performance

Changes in bank market performance are compared for banks that choose not to grow, to branch, bank acquire, product expand, or some combination. Using the change in market value‐to‐book value ratios, banks that include acquiring other banks as part of their growth strategy have significant positive changes in performance. Positive performance by bank acquirers is in contrast to many studies, but prior research has not reviewed other growth activities in a single model, nor used market‐based measures to review performance over longer time periods following bank expansion.     

Current Account Adjustment and Capital Flows*

We examine episodes of current account adjustment in industrial countries over the past 30 years. We find that they were typically associated with a sizable growth slowdown and a large exchange rate depreciation. There was no discernible change in the nature of capital flows just prior to an adjustment. Hence, adjustments may be responding to the resolution of domestic imbalances rather than being an exogenous event. We show that global developments triggered the adjustment, possibly by triggering the unwinding of the domestic imbalances. Most of the ex post adjustment of the financial account was in private sector flows, primarily by foreign investors.