A new methodology for the logistic analysis of evolutionary S-shaped processes: Application to historical time series and forecasting

A new multi-logistic methodology to analyze long range time series of evolutionary S-shaped processes is presented. It conceptually innovates over the traditional logistic approach. The ansatz includes computing the residuals to an optimized multi-logistic trend curve least squares fitted to the time-series data. The elements of the residuals series are checked for autocorrelations and once detected the residuals series is further analyzed to search for eventual presence of underlying periodic structures using a truncated Fourier sine series. The method foundations ensures both a universal applicability and a capacity to disclose the existence of active clocks that can be possibly traced to the driving motors of the evolutionary character of the time series, due to the responsiveness of corresponding process to the development of economic cycles. On associating these two views, it is found that the methodology has a strong potential to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. These findings have been put to test through applications of the methodology to studying the time evolution of two commodities of strong economic and social importance (corn and steel) and good results were consistently obtained for both the analytical and forecasting aspects.     

Fundraising and Optimal Policy Rules

This paper develops a simple spatial model of fundraising, in which charities select a target population to solicit donations. First, we show that in a competitive charity market without any intervention, the number of charities in the market and/or the overall net funds raised by charities may be suboptimal. Next, we analyze whether a social planner can prevent such shortcomings and show that a regulatory mechanism can be designed to achieve socially desirable outcomes. In contrast to the previous literature, our model does not necessarily produce monopoly as the optimal market structure. We show that if fixed costs associated with establishing charities are sufficiently low, then the optimal market structure is not a monopoly. Given the importance of the trade‐off between the volume and variety of charitable services, we argue that this result may be of particular interest to policy makers.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICIES FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS

This article explains how economic analysis can be applied to understand environmental problems and to suggest appropriate policies to deal with these problems. Economic analysis is performed using static and dynamic models, and one‐person and several‐person game theoretical models. Policy recommendations include the control of industrial pollution in China and the regulation of world CO₂ emission through the application of a resolution by the United Nations.     

A structured approach to conflict prediction in information systems strategy implementation

Organizational power and politics are the central issues of this paper. By developing a model of organizational power it is possible to determine whether an organizational change initiative is likely to be politically feasible. The formal model described has been derived largely from research reported in the social sciences. The modelling process involved using formal methods, in logic and entity relationship analysis, to discover an effective and consistent means of representing key organizational power concepts. The result is an advisory expert system called MP/L1 that can be employed by change agents to predict likely sources of potential resistance to major change initiatives and to suggest tactics that might be effective in combating anticipated resistance. Industrial experience with MP/L1 to date indicates that it has significant potential as a change management tool within the IS strategy-implementation domain. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investment and saving in Angola and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle

This article analyses the relationship between investment and savings for Angola using the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle, with monthly data from January 2000 to December 2013. Integer and fractional integration and cointegration techniques are employed to investigate the relationship between investment and savings. Several regression specifications are employed, concluding that the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle is not validated for the Angolan economy. Policy implications are derived.     

The impact of supplier development on buyer competitive advantage: A path analytic model

As manufacturing firms increasingly realize that supplier performance is crucial to their establishing and maintaining competitive advantage, supplier development has been a subject of considerable research in supply chain management. We develop and test a path model to explore how supplier development practices affect buyer-supplier performance from the buying firm's perspective in the context of Hong Kong's electronics industry. The results show that top management, supplier evaluation, and supplier strategic objectives are significant determinants of transaction-specific supplier development, and that buyers that have closer collaborative relationships with suppliers may strengthen their competitive advantage.