Technological Threat and Opportunity Assessment

One of the major challenges in the management of innovation is a practical and useful implementation of technology forecasting. This article proposes the concept of aniticpating the technological future, and that a structured approach to this concept could be an invaluable aid to technical decision-making. The notion of technological threat and opportunity assessment is presented as a useful framework for anticipating technological change. This notion is based on a dual approach.Firstly, a rapidly changing global technological landscape necessitates keeping track of technological developments. However, since we are dealing with innovation (rather than mere invention), the market implications are as important as the technological ones and have to be accounted for as such. Secondly, any organisation could be considered to be technology-based to some or other degree, implying that technologies have the ability to affect the bottom line of the organisation in some way. It is thus required to assess the business impact of such technologies, typically through a technology or innovation audit.Having assessed specific technological threats and opportunities facing the organisation, an innovation strategy needs to be developed in response to the identified threats and opportunities. Various possible offensive and/or defensive responses should be considered, culminating in the selection and implementation of an optimal strategy.     

公共政策公共性视角下公平与效率问题综述

关于如何解决公平与效率的关系,有学者把优先权交给平等,有学者把优先权交给效率,有学者为了平衡公平和效率的关系做了一个妥协,还有些学者认为政府管公平、市场管效率。无论怎样,实现公平和效率的动态平衡,是一个社会系统工程,需要建立完善的公共政策体系。     

Analyzing social policy alternatives through modeling and forecasting of the consumption,composition, and incomes of the population

The article continues researches started under the guidance and with active participation of E.Yu. Faerman, Dr. Sci. (Econ.), within the framework of the RAS Central Economics and Mathematics Institute Population, Incomes, and Consumption system, aimed at modeling and forecasting the population composition, incomes, and consumption using a number of methods (including the multilevel complex structuring of the population and its incomes and consumption, modeling and forecasting shadow employment and incomes, and so on) and a complex statistical database. Comparative analysis of the results of four variants of inertial forecasts of socioeconomic indicators of different levels (the population as a whole, its functional layers, and their social and socioeconomic constituent groups) has been performed, including official and unofficial incomes and shadow employment; scenarios of social policy have been studied, including the income policy, labor compensation problems, and the social transfer policy; and economic consequences of the income legalization scenario have been evaluated.     

基于规模和位序差异的陕西入境旅游研究

为科学、准确研究陕西入境旅游发展的区域差异,文章借鉴研究区域经济规模和位序差异的成熟方法,选取2001--2010年国家和陕西省统计年鉴中陕西省7个重点城市的相关数据（2003年由于非典原因除外）,对陕西入境旅游的区域差异进行了研究。发现陕西入境旅游业发展空间差异较大,但有逐渐缩小的趋势,7个重点城市入境旅游发展不平衡且不平衡格局相对稳定等问题。在此基础上,分析了影响陕西入境旅游规模位序差异化的原因。     

混合双寡头模型下的R&D竞争:不确定性和模仿视角

通过引入模仿参数δ来衡量R&D容易被模仿的程度,对Joanna Poya-go-Theotoky(1998)的研究进行了拓展,验证了其基本结论的稳健性。此外,通过引入二次R&D成本函数,研究发现,混合双寡头与私人双寡头情况下的社会福利的比较是不确定的,除了依赖创新规模P以外,还取决于模仿参数d,即——(1)对于任意的d,创新规模越大,私人双寡头越倾向于占优混合双寡头,混合双寡头仅在创新规模较小的时候可能优于私人双寡头;(2)对于创新规模比较小的R&D,只有同时具备较容易的模仿程度,混合双寡头才会优于私人双寡头;(3)在不完全模仿(d≠1)的情况下,在R&D越来越容易被模仿的过程中,利率越高(低),私人双寡头优于混合双寡头的最低P值先上升(下降)后下降(上升)。     

Do Traditional Chinese Cultural Values Nourish a Market for Pirated CDs?

On one hand, Chinese consumers are well known for conspicuous consumption and the adoption of luxury products and named brands. On the other hand, they also have a bad reputation for buying counterfeit products. Their simultaneous preferences for two contrasting types of product present a paradox that has not been addressed in the literature. This study attempts to present an explanation of this paradox by examining the effects of traditional Chinese cultural values and consumer values on consumers’ deontological judgment of pirated CDs and the amount of social benefits they perceive they gain from them. We interviewed 300 Hong Kong Chinese consumers, and found that face consciousness increased materialism and risk aversion, thereby producing a favorable deontological judgment of pirated CDs. Face consciousness also has a direct effect on the amount of social benefits perceived in pirated CDs. Both favorable deontological judgment and perceived social benefits contributed to a strong intention to buy pirated CDs. The results are discussed in a cultural perspective.     

Backward linkages from construction. Exploring the economic development potential of Scottish building supplies

One argument for increasing construction investment is the number of jobs and related multipliers associated with property investment. However, economic activity does not begin and end with actual construction: there are important backward linkages into the input markets for construction. If these markets can be shown to be primarily indigenous or at least with the potential to be locally-based, then there are wider local and regional benefits that may accrue from construction programmes. This paper is based on recent Scottish research which traced back the linkages from construction to specific building supplies markets in materials, semi-finished and finished products. Strong economy-wide multiplier effects are identified for construction output, for those on low incomes and in terms of job creation. Scottish construction is found to be primarily self-contained with consequent opportunities to maximise the local economic impact of construction work. The research suggests that policies need to target specific supply industries, meet the skills shortage challenge and confront the problems associated with construction tendering.     

Estimation of a non-invertible moving average process: The case of overdifferencing

The effect of differencing all of the variables in a properly specified regression equation is examined. Excessive use of the difference transformation induces a non-invertible moving average (MA) process in the disturbances of the transformed regression. Monte Carlo techniques are used to examine the effects of overdifferencing on the efficiency of regression parameter estimates, inferences based on these estimates, and tests for overdifferenccing based on the estimator of the MA parameter for the disturbances of the differences regression. Overall, the problem of overdifferencing is not serious if careful attention is paid to the properties of the disturbances of regression equations.