Optimal Comparable Selection and Weighting in Real Property Valuation

This paper formalizes certain aspects of the sales comparison approach to valuation that heretofore have been quite ad hoc. Specifically, it applies statistical theory to decisions about how many comparables to select, what the criteria for comparable selection should be, and how the proper weights for each adjusted value estimate can be determined such that the final value estimate is both unbiased and of minimum variance. Several results are derived that run counter to conventional practice; for example, it may not always be optimal to consider first the "best" comparables because of a lack of independence among their adjusted value estimates. Furthermore, it is always desirable to consider more comparables (regardless of how "bad") so long as their adjusted value estimates are optimally weighted in the final value estimate. Finally, weights usually selected for "inferior" comparables are typically too small. A final exercise empirically applies the methodology to a sample of sales.     

SUCCESS IN DECISION MAKING: DIFFERENT ORGANIZATIONS, DIFFERING REASONS FOR SUCCESS

In an attempt to elucidate some possible conditions for success in managerial decision making, data were analysed from 53 cases of decisions in eight British organizations, five business firms and three non-business organizations (two universities and a District of the National Health Service). No clear relationships between features of the processes of making the decisions, and their successfulness were found until the business firms and the non-business organizations were separated. Clear differences then showed up, relatively speaking, in the conditions conductive to success. In the business firms, a successful decision was more likely to result from a decision-making process in which resources were available. In other words, in business a successful decision is most likely when sufficient information and sufficient means of implementation are to hand. By contrast, in the universities and the Health District, a successful decision was associated more with the social qualities of the decision-making process itself. In other words, in non-business organizations a successful decision is most likely when the right people participate and the people at the very top do not interfere too much.     

On the definition of monopoly and selection of product characteristics

This paper considers the implications of the definition of monopoly for models of firm behavior in the selection of product variety. The results suggest that one's conception of a monopoly structure can influence the conclusions derived on the implications of market structure for product characteristics.     

Estimates of the Effect of School Desegregation Plans on Housing Values Over Time

This study investigates the impact that school desegregation can have on the market values of affected residential properties. It improves upon previous studies in that it is able to estimate not only the "racial enrollment" effect but also "other" desegregation-related effects correlated with white perceptions of school quality, etc. Through the use of a controlled longitudinal and cross-sectional data set of property sales and a ridge-regression methodology, it is able to estimate these effects over time and separate them from amenity-related effects. Results are significant in that they predict substantial desegregation-related effects on house values over time, averaging 11.4% of property value, which correlate with school desegregation court rulings and other events. Furthermore, over one-third of the magnitude of this discount is related to desegregation factors other than actual racial enrollment patterns in the schools.     

Marketing Period Risk in a Portfolio Context: Theory and Empirical Estimates from the UK Commercial Real Estate Market

The role of selling (or marketing) period uncertainty in understanding risk associated with property investment is examined in this paper. Using an approach developed by Lin (2004), and Lin and Vandell (2001, 2005), combined with a statistical model of UK commercial property transactions, we show that the ex ante level of risk exposure for a commercial real estate investor is around one and a half times that obtained from historical statistics. The risk related to marketing time uncertainty can be reduced by constructing a portfolio. We find that at least ten properties are necessary to reduce this risk, assuming independence between marketing period risk and price risk. These findings have important implications for mixed-asset portfolio allocation decisions.      

Terrorist threats,information disclosures,and consumer sovereignty

This paper proposes the use of consumers’ preferences in formulating policies for keeping secret information about terrorist activities and threats that might compromise future security. We report the results from two surveys indicating that support for government secrecy varies across situations depending on the threat and context. A majority of respondents preferred full disclosure of some information related to terrorist threats regardless of the consequences for specific industries or future threats, in particular threats involving attacks on commercial airlines. However a majority of respondents were willing to allow government authorities to withhold information about the details of threats to the financial system and to buildings if revealing the information might compromise future investigations. While the public generally recognizes the importance of keeping some information secret, a democratically elected government should seek to understand the preferences of its citizens on important policy issues related to public safety and security.     

Do economics journal archives promote replicable research?

Abstract. All the long‐standing archives at economics journals do not facilitate the reproduction of published results. The data‐only archives at Journal of Business and Economic Statistics and Economic Journal fail in part because most authors do not contribute data. Results published in the FRB St. Louis Review can rarely be reproduced using the data+code in the journal archive. Recently created archives at top journals should avoid the mistakes of their predecessors. We categorize reasons for archives' failures and identify successful policies.     

Exploring the technology teacher shortage in New Zealand: the implications for quality teaching and learning

International Journal of Technology and Design Education - The recruitment and retention of technology teachers in New Zealand is facing a potential crisis point. Worryingly, there are continuing...     

Public procurement for innovation through supplier firms' sustainability lens: A systematic review and research agenda

Public sector purchasing processes are gaining increasing prominence as a demand-side innovation tool for addressing national sustainability challenges. Accordingly, there has been growing research attention to this topic. Prior studies suggest three key rationales that underlie the use of public sector procurement to drive innovation: (i) the buyer–user rationale (for creating new needs); (ii) the market/system failure rationale (for improving suppliers' capacity to innovate); and (iii) the public services rationale (for improving public services). However, operational activities at the upstream supply chain affecting the sustainable innovation capacities of supplier firms appear to be under-researched in the public procurement for innovation (PPI) scholarship, despite knowledge about innovation capacity being critical to successfully implementing PPI. This paper adopts a systematic literature review approach to synthesise existing fragmented literature on sustainability-oriented PPI, focusing on supplier perspectives. Findings from a synthesis of 41 relevant articles suggest, among others conditions, that a procurement framework that maintains a good balance of competition and innovation, builds buyer–supplier relationship and urges strong supply networks, maintains a stable political commitment, offers security for niche markets with effective innovation risk management culture would enhance suppliers' sustainability capacity and propensity to innovate. This paper contributes to the PPI literature and the literature on determinants of sustainable innovation systems from supplier firms' sustainability lens.     

America's decoupling from China: A perspective from stock markets

America's decoupling-from-China debate started after July 2018, reached its peak in August 2020, and is likely to continue even if it may not be a high priority for the Biden administration. Many studies have examined various aspects of this issue, especially the potential economic impacts on the US economy. Unlike previous research, this study looks at the response of stock markets. Using Google Trends data, this study created a weekly dataset from January 2020 to June 2021 to measure investor sentiment towards the US decoupling from China. Employing the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, the study finds that concern over decoupling is associated with significant variations in stock market prices. From this we can infer that the overall effects of decoupling on the US economy are likely to be considerable.