Time-series momentum in China's commodity futures market

This study examines the time-series momentum in China's commodity futures market. We find that a time-series momentum strategy outperforms classical passive long and cross-sectional momentum strategies in terms of the Sharpe ratio, risk-adjusted excess returns, and cumulative returns. The time-series momentum strategy with a 1-month look-back period and a 1-month holding period exhibits the best performance. We observe clear time-series momentum patterns and find that the time-series momentum strategy is effective in the Chinese commodity futures market. However, the momentum lasts for less time in China than in the United States because China's futures market seems to have a greater number of speculative investors.     

The impact of net buying pressure on index options prices

This study examines whether the demand for options, as measured by the net buying pressure of index options, explains the implied volatility structure created by options prices. We decompose the buying pressure into the direction‐motivated (i.e., delta‐informed) and the volatility‐motivated (i.e., vega‐informed) demand for options. After controlling for options traders' hedging demand, we find that both delta‐ and vega‐informed trading play significant roles in explaining changes in implied volatility. Foreign institutions are more directionally informed in index options trading than their domestic counterparts are. Domestic investors effectively implement volatility trading using put options.     

Sentiment-dependent impact of funding liquidity shocks on futures market liquidity

We examine the effect of funding liquidity changes on futures market liquidity, depending on economic sentiment. Futures market liquidity improves following negative funding liquidity shocks, and economic sentiment is an important determinant explaining this relationship. While individuals' trading is most significantly affected by sentiment, its response to funding liquidity shocks remains independent of sentiment effects. Domestic institutions' reactions depend on the sentiment regime; they trade futures contracts more actively as funding liquidity becomes more abundant (scarcer) when sentiment is more pessimistic (optimistic). Foreigners, following negative funding liquidity shocks, generally increase their futures trading, whereas their trading decreases under the extremely pessimistic sentiment. Domestic banks and pension funds provide liquidity to the futures market even when sentiment is pessimistic.