Explaining IJV survival in a transitional economy through social exchange and knowledge‐based perspectives

In this study, we combine social exchange and knowledge‐based perspectives to develop a general path model of IJV survival. We further refine our expectations by considering the transitional economic context of our study and the somewhat unique managerial values resulting from the legacy of Marxist ideology. Results from structural equation modeling suggest that an imbalance in the management control structure between the parents leads to parental conflict and an increased likelihood of IJV failure. An imbalance in the ownership control structure, however, had no influence on conflict or survival. In general, support from the foreign parent is positively related to IJV learning and IJV survival. However, higher levels of technical support provided by the foreign parent to the IJV reduced the level of parental conflict, whereas management support had no effect on conflict. Our results suggest some dilemmas for firms pursuing IJVs in transitional economies. Although the foreign parent often contributes critical resources to the IJV, providing it with bargaining power and a high level of influence, an imbalance in management control between the partners may ultimately be detrimental to IJV survival. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Do high interest rates deter speculative attacks? – Evidence and some theory

This paper presents the first empirical evidence on the efficacy of raising interest rates ex ante as a deterrent to speculative attacks. Using a dataset that covers 54 countries from March 1964 through December 2005, we find strong evidence that raising interest rates in advance has significantly different impacts in different country groups. It significantly reduces the probability of attacks in countries that have a de facto hard peg but increases it in de facto soft-pegging countries. This finding is robust to alternative measure of monetary policy and to different specifications and samples. We then present a simple two-stage signaling model to offer a theoretical explanation for our empirical findings.     

Estimating financial risk measures for options

This paper proposes a simulation-lattice procedure to estimate financial risk measures for option positions. The framework proposed can be applied to many different kinds of options, including exotic and vanilla options; it can take account of early exercise features; heavy tails in underlying processes; estimate different risk measures, including VaR, Expected Shortfall and Spectral Risk Measures; and in a limited way it can be generalized to accommodate multiple-factors. It avoids many of the limitations of existing approaches and, in particular, avoids the problems associated approaches based on delta–gamma and similar approximations. It also generates some interesting results about the risk measures of some illustrative options positions.     

Accruals Quality, Information Risk and Cost of Capital: Evidence from Australia

Abstract:  Recent theoretical work argues that information risk is a non-diversifiable risk factor that is priced in the capital market. Using accruals quality to proxy for information risk, Francis et al. (2005) provide empirical support for this argument using a sample of US firms. This paper re-examines the interplay of accruals quality, information risk and cost of capital in Australia, where a number of important institutional and regulatory differences are hypothesized to affect the relation between accruals quality and cost of capital. The results suggest that, while accruals quality impacts on the cost of capital for Australian firms, some salient differences exist. In contrast to findings for US firms, the costs of debt and equity for Australian firms are largely influenced by accruals quality arising from economic fundamentals (i.e., innate accrual quality) but not discretionary reporting choices (i.e., discretionary accrual quality). This finding is consistent with our predictions based on the Australian institutional and regulatory environment. In addition, using both the asset pricing tests in Francis et al. (2005) and Core et al. (2008) , we provide evidence consistent with accruals quality being a priced risk factor.     

Growth and convergence in a multi-country empirical stochastic Solow model

The paper considers international per capita output and its growth using a panel of data for 102 countries between 1960 and 1989. It sets out an explicitly stochastic Solow growth model and shows that this has quite different properties from the standard approach where the output equation is obtained by adding an error term to the linearized solution of a deterministic Solow model. It examines the econometric properties of estimates of beta convergence as traditionally defined in the literature and shows that all these estimates are subject to substantial biases. Our empirical estimates clearly reflect the nature and the magnitude of these biases as predicted by econometric theory. Steady state growth rates differ significantly across countries and once this heterogeneity is allowed for the estimates of beta are substantially higher than the consensus in the literature. But they are very imprecisely estimated and difficult to interpret. The paper also discusses the economic implications of these results for sigma convergence. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Concern for appropriateness and ad context effects

Are some people more sensitive than others to ad context effects? Recently, it has been shown that certain types of people are particularly sensitive to situational cues in social contexts. Such people vary how they behave according to the social context because they are highly concerned with social appropriateness. Is it possible that such people are also highly sensitive to mass communication contexts? In this research an experiment is performed to determine if such people are more sensitive than others to a highly inappropriate ad context. The results show that they are. Implications for persuasive communications are discussed. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Enhancing National Security and Energy Security in the Post-911 Era: Group Decision Support for Strategic Policy Analysis under Conditions of Conflict

Energy source diversity has become a fundamental principle of both US energy security and national security. The decision of whether or not to approve a new power plant facility in the US involves complex group decision and negotiation processes. These contentious, value-laden, and multi-faceted self organizing processes involve many decision makers (broad constituencies) with conflicting priorities and dynamic preferences, high decision stakes, limited technical information (both in terms of quality and quantity), and difficult tradeoffs. As population pressures and energy demands continue to mount, advances in conflict resolution can help to improve power plant siting processes as well as US energy security and national security. Specifically, this paper uses advances in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution and its associated decision support system (DSS) GMCR II to analyze strategic aspects of a multi-party energy dispute involving the co-management of a shared air shed in the Fraser Lowland Eco-Region based on Sumas Energy 2 (SE2), a contentious power plant project proposed for the US side of the international border between the city of Abbotsford, British Columbia and town of Sumas, Washington. GMCR II provides strategic insights for enhancing energy security, national security, and environmental risk management in the United States.     

Convergent Validity of Attribute-Based,Choice Questions in Stated-Preference Studies

The application of attribute-based choice questions is well established in the marketing literature, but there are unique aspects of the design that warrant investigation to assess their validity for economic welfare estimation. Three design issues are investigated in this paper: (1) the placement of the monetary stimulus (policy cost to respondents) in the sequence of attributes, (2) the number of policy alternatives respondents are asked to consider in choice questions (two versus three), and (3) the inclusion, versus exclusion, of a status-quo alternative in choice questions. The data used to implement these investigations are from a survey designed to estimate the value Maine residents place on a farmland conservation easement program. Tests of convergent validity indicate that the placement of the monetary stimulus, first versus last in the list of attributes, did not affect estimates of preference parameters, significant differences between questions with three versus two alternatives did occur, and the inclusion/exclusion of a status-quo alternative did not affect preference parameters.     

Speculative attacks and defenses as wars of attrition

This paper extends the currency crisis models in Obstfeld [Obstfeld, M., 1994. The logic of currency crises. Cahiers Economiques et Monetaries], [Obstfeld, M., 1996. Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features. European Economic Review 40, 1037–1047] by modeling both the government's side and speculators' side and introducing uncertainty about each party's payoff. We argue that a speculative attack (defense) can be well modeled as a war of attrition between the government and speculators under asymmetric information. We then solve for a pure strategy, weakly perfect, Bayesian rational expectation equilibrium in which each party's time until concession depends on her benefits from winning and her costs of fighting. Using this model, we are able to explain important facts of currency crises. First, the model shows that failed defenses (attacks) can be ex-ante rational for governments (speculators). Second, the model predicts systematic variations in the durations of defenses. Finally, we also show that currency crises can be self-fulfilling in the sense that there exist multiple rational expectation equilibria in our model.