Accomplice Witnesses and Organized Crime: Theory and Evidence from Italy

We develop an agency model of organized crime accounting for the main trade‐offs involved in the introduction of an accomplice‐witness program. We characterize the optimal policy and identify its main determinants in a framework where public officials can be dishonest. Our predictions are tested by using data for Italy before and after the introduction of the 1991 accomplice‐witness program. As predicted by the model and the earlier antitrust literature, the program appears to have strengthened deterrence and enhanced prosecution. Moreover, consistent with a novel prediction of our theory, the evidence suggests that the program efficacy is affected by the judicial system efficiency.     

Seeing Without Looking: The Effects of Hemispheric Functioning on Memory for Brands in Computer Games

The authors hypothesize that the effectiveness of in-game advertising is influenced by two inborn traits, bisected hemispheric functioning and physiological arousal, that are at the core of human behavior. A 2 (preattentive processing type) × 2 (arousal level) between-subjects design was employed in both Experiment 1 (well-known brand placement) and Experiment 2 (lesser-known brand placement). The results from the two experiments reveal that people show better recognition memory for in-game ads when brand names are presented peripherally in the right visual field and brand images are embedded peripherally in the left visual field. In addition, people can remember more brand ads when they experience less arousal (Experiment 1). This effect, however, is attenuated when unfamiliar brands are placed in the game (Experiment 2). Implications are discussed for further investigation.     

How to estimate market concentration given grouped data

A novel method is proposed of estimating market concentration for the census case in which firms are grouped into size classes and all that is known about the firms in each category is their number and aggregate size. The formula arises as a way of applying an alternative expression for the concentration ratio based upon the original and first moment size distributions of firms. The semi-parametric technique, which includes a method of interval as well as point estimation, is derived, applied and validated using actual and simulated data. It is anticipated that the estimator will be of use in competition analysis as well as in academic research.     

家族企业的品牌长青术

家族企业的品牌管理不太为外界所熟知，但是，家族企业由于其独特的“家庭要素”的背景，在核心理念、客户关联、一致性、员工融入和锐意进取等各个方面都有突出的表现，而这些要素也恰好是全球领先品牌的五个核心特征。     

The use of visual warnings in social marketing: The case of tobacco

Despite strong interest on the part of tobacco health practitioners, the effect of graphic warnings inserted on cigarette packs is unclear on several levels. First, the most effective themes for such messages have not been clearly identified by researchers. Second, no research has identified the ideal combination of self-efficacy and fear appeal warnings that should be inserted on cigarette packs, according to Protection Motivation Model principles. The exploratory study we conducted with French consumers to test the effectiveness of new graphic warnings proposed by the European Union in 2004 clearly demonstrates that visual messages, as opposed to text warnings, are more effective. This study also enabled us to identify the most effective themes of the European set: health warnings and social messages. Regarding future public health applications, if fear appeals are used, they need to be combined with self-efficacy and cessation support messages since they provoke avoidance reactions.     

Maintaining a Reputation for Consistently Beating Earnings Expectations and the Slippery Slope to Earnings Manipulation

This paper investigates whether maintaining a reputation for consistently beating analysts' earnings expectations can motivate executives to move from “within GAAP” earnings management to “outside of GAAP” earnings manipulation. We analyze firms subject to SEC enforcement actions and find that these firms consistently beat analysts' quarterly earnings forecasts in the three years prior to the manipulation period and continue to do so by smaller “beats” during the manipulation period. We find that manipulating firms beat expectations around 86 percent of the time in the 12 quarters prior to the manipulation period (versus 75 percent for control firms) and that manipulation often ends with a miss in expectations. We document that executives of manipulating firms face strong stock market and CEO pressure to perform. Prior to the manipulation period, these firms have high analyst optimism, growing institutional interest, and high market valuations, along with powerful CEOs. Further, we find that maintaining a reputation for beating expectations is more important than CEO overconfidence and is incremental to CEO equity incentives for explaining manipulation. Our results suggest that pressure to maintain a reputation for beating analysts' expectations can encourage aggressive accounting and, ultimately, earnings manipulation.     

Relative Effects of IFRS Adoption and IFRS Convergence on Financial Statement Comparability

One of the primary objectives of both adoption of IFRS and convergence between IFRS and U.S. GAAP is to increase financial statement comparability. Using a unique setting in Germany, we compare the effectiveness of these two approaches in achieving this desired outcome. Our empirical tests show that both adoption and convergence lead to an increase in comparability after the new enforcement regulation in 2005. However, difference‐in‐differences tests show that adoption does not lead to a significant incremental increase in comparability beyond convergence. The findings of this study should be of interest to regulators and standard setters as they assess alternative methods of aligning domestic standards with IFRS.     

Exchange rate undervaluation and manufactured exports: A deliberate strategy?

Recent literature suggests that a proactive exchange rate policy in accordance with price incentives (i.e. undervaluation) can foster manufactured exports and growth. This paper is built on these recent developments and investigates, using a sample of 52 developing countries, whether such a proactive exchange rate policy is adopted. The results show that during the period 1991–2005 a number of countries has used undervaluation to foster the price competitiveness of manufactured exports.     

Can contracts solve the hold-up problem? Experimental evidence

In the contract-theoretic literature, there is a vital debate about whether contracts can mitigate the hold-up problem, in particular when renegotiation cannot be prevented. Ultimately, this question has to be answered empirically. As a first step, we have conducted a laboratory experiment with 960 participants. We consider investments that directly benefit the non-investing party. While according to standard theory, contracting would be useless if renegotiation cannot be ruled out, we find that option contracts significantly improve investment incentives compared to a no-contract treatment. This finding might be attributed to Hart and Moore?s (2008) recent idea that contracts can serve as reference points.     

A NOTE ON SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF FINITE MIXTURES OF DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS WITH APPLICATION TO GAME THEORETIC MODELS*

We view a game abstractly as a semiparametric mixture distribution and study the semiparametric efficiency bound of this model. Our results suggest that a key issue for inference is the number of equilibria compared to the number of outcomes. If the number of equilibria is sufficiently large compared to the number of outcomes, root‐n consistent estimation of the model will not be possible. We also provide a simple estimator in the case when the efficiency bound is strictly above zero.