Conservation or energy development: Consumer perceptions of alternate solutions to the energy crisis

The purpose of this study was to identify segments of the population on the basis of what they believe would ensure energy for the future—conservation or energy/technological development. To the extent that technology is perceived to be the solution, a potential danger exists that consumers will not commit to an energy-conscious lifestyle except as required by increasing energy costs. The respondents were 692 systematically sampled residents of Alabama. A follow-up survey of 73 non-respondents indicated that nonresponse bias was absent in terms of demographic and social-psychological characteristics, perceptions of the energy crisis, and level of energy use. Distinct differences emerged among the segments (energy development, conservation, or neutral) which indicate that policy makers must be concerned with emphasizing that technological breakthroughs are not the solution to the energy crisis. Note This study was funded by a grant from the Energy Assessment Program, School of Mines and Energy Development, the University of Alabama.     

Robustness of Williams Square change-over designs

In literature, Williams Square change-over designs balanced for first residual effects of treatments have been proved to be universally optimal. Here, an attempt has been made to show that these designs are robust against missing of last α [≤v−1; v being the number of periods in the design for v treatments] observations from an experimental unit. Received May 2000     

Technologies for the people: a future in the making

India’s post-independence policy of using science and technology for national development, and investment in research and development infrastructure resulted in success in space, atomic energy, missile development and supercomputing. Use of space technology has impacted directly or indirectly the vast majority of India’s billion plus population. Developments in a number of emerging technologies in recent years hold the promise of impacting the future of ordinary Indians in significant ways, if a proper policy and enabling environment are provided. New telecom technologies—a digital rural exchange and a wireless access system—are beginning to touch the lives of common people. Development of a low-cost handheld computing device, use of hybrid telemedicine systems to extend modern healthcare to the unreached, and other innovative uses of IT at the grassroots also hold promise for the future. Biotechnology too has the potential to deliver cost-effective vaccines and drugs, but the future of GM crops is uncertain due to growing opposition. Some of these emerging technologies hold promise for future, provided a positive policy and enabling environment.     

SUGGESTIONS FOR TREATMENT OF HUMAN CAPITAL IN NATIONAL ACCOUNTS—WITH ILLUSTRATIONS FROM INDIAN DATA*

After giving a brief discussion of the biases that exist in the conventional estimation procedures followed in the construction of national accounts, this paper argues for restructuring of national accounts so as to treat human capital formation as investment rather than consumption and suggests that a beginning should be made in respect of schooling. The argument is based on the notion that “investment” or “capital” is that which yields future income streams and also on the rather obvious point that treating as consumption large outlays that really constitute investment distorts analyses of resource allocation, growth and income distribution, and obscures intersectoral relations. It is pointed out that the proposed restructuring of national accounts is more relevant and important for developing countries, many of which are embarked on investment planning. Another major point emphasized is that the input of students’time should be properly measured and included in the estimates of capital formation by schooling. To illustrate what these proposals imply, revision has been attempted of the estimates of (a) educational outlay (or activity in the education sector), (b) gross capital formation, and (c) gross national product, pertaining to the national accounts of a major developing country, namely India, for the years 1960–61 through 1965–66. The modified estimates, though first approximations and covering only a part of the human capital formation and having a systematically downward bias, nevertheless indicate an upward revision of the estimate of activity in the education sector by about 200 to 300 percent, of gross capital formation by about 50 percent and of the gross national product by 4 to 7 percent. These magnitudes show the substantial order of distortion involved in the conventional procedures.     

A structural VAR business cycle model for a volatile small open economy

New Zealand is a small economy exposed to a volatile climate, relatively volatile international trade prices, and its exposure to international financial markets has increased markedly since economic reforms in the 1980s. This paper applies identification techniques suggested by Cushman and Zha [Cushman, D.O. and Zha T.A., 1997. Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates, Journal of Monetary Economics, 39, pp. 433–448.], Zha [Zha, T.A., (1999). Block recursion and structural vector autoregression, Journal of Econometrics, 90, pp. 291–316.] and Dungey and Pagan [Dungey, M. and Pagan, A., 2000. A structural VAR model of the Australian economy, The Economic Record, 76, pp. 321–342.] to develop a large four block structural VAR model of the New Zealand business cycle to capture these features. The model reveals that climate and international trade price shocks have been more important sources of business cycles fluctuations than international or domestic financial shocks. Furthermore, the model does not encounter the price and exchange rate puzzles that have bedevilled attempts to identify monetary policy shocks in small open economy SVAR models.     

The role of temporal focus,dispositional employability,and training on the perceived internal career prospects of talents

Abstract

In this paper, we study employability in the group of talented employees. We explore how employees’ temporal focus affects their dispositional employability and how dispositional employability influences their perceived internal career prospects. We also examine the moderating role of training perceived as developmental on the relationship between dispositional employability and perceived internal career prospects. Upon examination of these relationships within an organization that has a closed talent management approach, we find support for the hypothesized mediating and moderating relationships. Present and future focus were positively related to talents’ dispositional employability, which in turn increased their perception of career prospects in the current company. The latter relationship was stronger among talents who perceived that they had received training for more important positions than those who did not. The results advanced current knowledge of antecedents and outcomes of employability in the specific group of talents and shed light on the organizational practices that may help with talent retention.     

Small Sample Properties Of Existing And New Estimators Of The Autocorrelation Coefficient And Regression Coefficients In The Context Of Ar(1) Errors

This study systematically and comprehensively investigates the small sample properties of the existing and some new estimators of the autocorrelation coefficient and of the regression coefficients in a linear regression model when errors follow an autoregressive process of order one. The new estimators of autocorrelation coefficient proposed here are based on the jackknife procedure. The jackknife procedure is applied in two alternative ways: first to the regression itself, and second to the residuals of the regression model. Next, the performance of the existing and new estimators of autocorrelation coefficient (thirty-three in total) is investigated in terms of bias and the root mean squared errors. Finally, we have systematically compared all of the estimators of the regression coefficients (again thirty-three) in terms of efficiency and their performance in hypothesis testing. We observe that the performance of the autocorrelation coefficient estimators is dependent upon the degree of autocorrelation and whether the autocorrelation is positive or negative. We do not observe a direct link between the bias and efficiency of an estimator. The performance of the estimators of the regression coefficients also depends upon the degree of autocorrelation. If the efficiency of regression estimator is of concern, then the iterative Prais-Winsten estimator should be used since it is most efficient for the widest range of independent variables and values of the autocorrelation coefficient. If testing of the hypothesis is of concern, then the estimators based on jackknife technique are certainly superior and are highly recommended. However, for negative values of the autocorrelation coefficient, the estimators based on Quenouille procedure and iterative Prais-Winsten estimator are comparable. But, for computational ease iterative Prais-Winsten estimator is recommended.